Stanford topples USC: What the upset means to Cal
How interesting to see so many Cal fans commenting that they were rooting for Stanford last night.
And in one sense, the Cardinal did its rival a huge favor: USC’s loss means third-ranked Cal should becomes No. 2 in the polls today, behind LSU. (Cal hasn’t been that high since it was No. 1 in 1951.)
But Old and Young Blues shouldn’t count on being No. 2. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ohio State, currently fourth, vault the Bears.
The Buckeyes played yesterday and won impressively (at Purdue), and when there’s turmoil at the top, it’s always better to have played and won than to not have played at all.
Cal had a 55-vote lead on the Buckeyes; at the very least, that will be sliced in half. Can’t you see all those east coast and midwest voters shifting their votes from USC to OSU, and not to Cal?
Anyhow, I said Stanford did Cal a favor in one sense. But in the other sense — the larger, more important sense — Stanford’s win was bad news for the Bears.
Prior to Saturday, Cal had two realistic paths to the Rose Bowl:
* Win the Pac-10 title outright, which meant (and still could mean) beating USC head-to-head.
* Finish second in the Pac-10 and be invited to the Rose Bowl as an at-large team if USC jumps into the national title game.
(The Rose Bowl, I have been told, would love to have an 11-1 Cal team whose only loss was to USC.)
But because of Stanford’s upset, that second path is partly blocked.
The loss to Stanford makes it much, much tougher for the Trojans to get into the BCS title game (ie: finish No. 1 or 2 in the final BCS standings).
Now, USC will have to win its remaining games and hope some of the teams above it lose.
Essentially, the Trojans’ loss to Stanford makes the Nov. 10 showdown in Berkeley an absolute must-win for the Bears.
Before, they could have gotten to Pasadena even with a loss to the Trojans, so long as USC went to the national title game.
Now, the Berkeley winner goes to Pasadena (probably) and the loser becomes a BCS at-large candidate. It’s much more likely that the Sugar or Orange bowls would want USC to fill an at-large slot than Cal; the Fiesta might be happy to have the Bears.
(Then again, there are rules that would guarantee Cal a BCS bid even if it doesn’t win the Pac-10, but those are for weeks down the road.)
So Cal needs to root for USC to win every game it plays (except Nov. 10) and for teams near the top of the rankings to lose, like Oklahoma and Ohio State.
To sum it up:
The best scenario for Cal — the one that provides a Rose Bowl safety net — is for both the Bears and the Trojans to be in the BCS title hunt when they meet in Berkeley. That way, the loser has a chance to reach Pasadena as an at-large entry.
The first BCS standings will be released next weekend. Cal fans, you need USC to be in the top seven or eight.
I half agree Jon. You’re absolutely right that the loss hurts the at-large possibilities for Cal. But at the same time, the Pac-10 out-right scenario just became MORE likely. If USC loses another, something very reasonable with having most of the Pac-10’s best still in front of it, it won’t matter if Cal beats USC (assuming Cal can win the rest of their Pac-10 games).
I’m not sure anyone can do the math to know whether the lower at-large possibilities offset the higher Pac-10 champ possibilities, but it at least makes this development less clear as to whether it was good or bad for Cal.
For what it is worth, I’ve got a poll on my blog asking what the ideal situation is for the November 10th matchup between Cal and USC. Right now “neither team loses between now and then” slightly edges out “USC trailing by two games”. I invite everyone to vote (even you Jon
):
http://excusemeformyvoice.com/blog
So Cal needs to root for USC to win every game it plays (except Nov. 10) and for teams near the top of the rankings to lose, like Oklahoma and Ohio State.
Not true. If USC has a second Pac-10 defeat then Cal can win the Pac-10 title outright even with a loss to USC. Cal would have to win every other game, but that is true in any scenario. History shows that a 10-2 Cal team will not be ranked high enough to earn an at large BCS bid.
The only game Cal fans should root for USC is the Notre Dame game.
For the past few seasons Cal fans have been thinking:
“If USC wins out - the Trojans go to the National Championship and we can slip into the Rose Bowl!”
Not this year. Time to let that go.
Cal now has the chance to turn the tables. Here’s to Cal winning the Pac-10 out-right, and USC fans fretting over whether Cal ends up in the National Championship so THEY can take the back door to the Rose Bowl.
It starts with Oregon State. A huge game, because as last night proved yet again - every game is huge!
GO BEARS!
(and yay for the Big Game being a little bigger now!)
Jon
i’m offended. You still seem to think that USC is a good team and that Cal’s not better. They’ve shown over the last few weeks that they are not the team they once were. As the game began yesterday I thought to myself, USC is not as good this year. John David is really not a very good QB.
Now that we see that $C is not so good, all Cal has to do is win out-right. The UCLA game has lost its luster. ASU was almost downed by a death-throws WSU team. It’s looking like the out-right win scenario is very doable. As I was at the beginning of the season, the only team I’m worried about is Standturd–and a cold Washington.
I agree that voters will put OSU ahead of us and that’s fine. When it comess down to it, all we have to do is win it all and our strength of schedule will be enough to pass OSU in the final polls. Go VOLS!
I can’t wait to meet Less Miles in the NC
USC has to win at rainy, windy, Oregon’s Autzen Stadium and at Cal’s Memorial. I think they lose at least one of those given their recent form, as long as the Ducks and Bears play as hard as they have all season.
USC look’s like a very good team but not an invinceable machine that tap dances on their opponents, and there is no Reggie Bush and Leinert to bail them out.
I hope the Ducks and Bears get BCS bids this year to prove the Pac-10 is not just USC’s conference.
I think it’s time to start examining the possibility that USC has been seriously overrated. The Trojans nearly lost to Washington, then did lose to Stanford. Two games in a row like suggests not that USC was ambushed or upset or overly cocky, but vulnerable. If the game with Cal was this coming weekend, I’d make Cal a solid favorite.
Stanfurd’s well deserved victory does present some changes in how things roll out in the Pac-10 and BCS, yet it really doesn’t change anything - Cal has to win the rest of the games…or get lucky with a combo of wins/losses within in the Pac 10 ranks. Is that what JW just said?
Obviously Jeff Tedford and the Bears go for it all, what happens I don’t know but I have a feeling 12-0 might happen but in this wacky season you’d have to be nuts to guess.
My guess is OSU somehow plays LSU for the title. From there it’s who wins the Pac-10 outright.
One thing however is Stanfurd provided Cal plenty of video to look at. I don’t think SC is quite as scary…but they will be motivated and will come into Memorial fired up.
One of the best seasons ever in college football and the Pac-10. Thanks Stanfurd.
I agree with everyone. It’s time to stop thinking that we’ll get to the Rose Bowl by default. As we speak, Cal is #2 in the nation with their destiny in their hands. In this crazy, wacky season, Cal has just as much a chance to beat USC as they do losing to Oregon State. But thinking that Cal has the mentality that ‘we’ll take the sloppy seconds because of USC’s ultimate destiny’ is wrong. It may have been right two years ago, but not today.
When an undefeated USC lost to Oregon St last year, we heard this same argument (that this was bad for Cal). With USC losing to UCLA later, it turned out Cal’s Rose Bowl hopes were not dashed when USC lost, but instead by Cal’s loss to Arizona.
And while USC going to the NC game might allow Cal to sneak into the Rose Bowl, Cal is going to have a tough time competing with USC for those West Coast recruits. Cal fans should root against USC and hope for a decline in the dominance of USC in the Pac10. It’s going to happen sooner or later. Let’s hope it starts this year.
Jon,
There is really only one way to get to the Rose Bowl: win games. Call me overly simplistic, but the Bears desperately need to stay focused amongst this growing storm of hype. More than perhaps any season before, every game matters. Every game is the Rose Bowl, or at least has the power to take it away.
Can Cal win out? Yes. Will Cal lose at least one? There’s a more than decent chance. Everyone is so quick to discuss how $tanfurd ‘exposed’ U$C, that they miss the other lesson: Any team can lose. The truly great teams don’t (see LSU v. UF), but any team certainly has the ability. Cal MUST stay focused on the here and now, and treat every opponent with respect and determination. The minute you believe you’re 40 point favorites, you’re ready to be upset fodder.
Still, with all that said, this has the possibility of being a very special season. Convetional wisdom about college football has been overturned week after week. Anything could happen at this point. The Bears need to come with their ‘A’ game for all the remaining games, but that goes without saying.
OSU will be playing tough, but hopefully the Bears will be eager/healthy enough to handle them. UCLA looks safer at the moment due to the QB chaos, but $tanfurd provides a cautionary tale there. ASU is the next big game. and Cal needs to play as good or better than it did in Eugene. Avoid the trap game against Wazzu, and we’ll see just where things sit come Nov. 10th.
This season is wide open.
Go Bears!
“So Cal needs to root for USC to win every game it plays (except Nov. 10)…”
What a load of crap…I’m rooting for $C to lose every game, thus making them a non-entity in the Pac-10 title hunt. While I realize that that is easier said than done–oh wait, Stanford just beat ‘em, didn’t they?!
Cal wins the Pac-10, Cal goes to (at least) the Rose Bowl.
Arizona State kept up with them most of the game at the Coliseum last year. Oregon, assuming they stay as tough as they are–and there is every reason to believe they will this season–is a tough game to win at Autzen. Cal has only Cal to blame for last year’s fourth quarter letdown against the used Trojans.
Last year, after the inevitable loss at Oregon State, everyone assumed they would pull it together and run what was left of their schedule. They didn’t.
This year, they’ve shown the same medicocracy, sloppy play and close-calls; the inevitable loss just happened a little sooner…to the most unlikely of opponents…at the most unlikely venues.
Another loss is hardly out of the question for this squad. With road games at Cal, a much-improved ASU and a still-strong Oregon, it’s not hard to imagine maybe more than just another loss.
In truth, the Pac-10 race today is between three teams: Cal, Arizona State and UCLA. They are the only three undefeateds left in the conference.
We all saw what happened (again) to UCLA yesterday, so there is no reason to think they’ll suddenly find 360 minutes of solid consistency.
Arizona State has yet to play any team of substance, so there is no real way to assess their strengths or weaknesses. However, after watching them almost lose at Washington State yesterday, I felt a lot better about Cal’s chances in Tempe later this month.
That leaves Cal. Like us or not…suspect defense or not…whatever the naysayers say…Cal is the most-equipped and best coached team left. We’ve been tested, early, often and in the national spotlight. And we’ve paid our dues.
Cal is truly in control at this point. Only Cal can beat Cal, and I trust Tedford and a strong team leadership to keep that from happening.
Maybe I am the only California alumnus who thinks this way, but I never did like the whole “we haven’t been to a Rose Bowl the entire time I’ve been alive, but maybe we can sneak in through the back door of the Rose Bowl if we take 2nd place in the Pac-10 and the $C condoms play for the national championship.” To me, I don’t want my first Rose Bowl in decades to be tarnished by a 2nd place sneak-in. The Rose Bowl is for the Pac-10 champion, and I want my Bears to earn it — 100% of it, not 90%. So Wilner’s “negative” that we probably couldn’t sneak into the Rose Bowl as their consolation Pac-10 also-ran is good news to me.
That being said, I would have preferred that $C be the #1 or #2 team in the nation when we beat them in Strawberry Canyon on November 10 (which I predicted since before the season began that we would — I pegged the Oregon game as our toughest of the season, and it has been so far). There is more enjoyment in knocking the bully off the block then there is in kicking a jerk when he’s down. There’s also more of a ratings and recruiting boost! We lost a lot of positive spin from our predicted future victory over the condoms when ‘furd beat ‘em first!
As for OSU, it is possible that they could jump us in the polls, but — assuming we both win out the rest of the way — I would count on pollsters (are you listening, Wilner?) to use their game against their only common opponent as the tie-breaker. With that scenario in mind, Cal has to have an awesome showing against the Huskies! But we shouldn’t even need to get to that tie-breaker possibility because Cal has and will have more quality wins (Top 25 Tennessee, Oregon, $C, and ASU) from a superior conference.
Frankly the most likely scenario is for Oregon to win out the rest of its games. It has an excellent chance of beating USC (did you see how awful the USC secondary is?), and UO’s defense is a helluva lot better than Stanfurd’s. I think what we saw last night wasn’t just a surprising Stanfurd team (and credit them for a great win), but the lack of cohesion that is present on the USC team. USC will lose to Oregon (if not to ASU’s high-powered air attack or totally inconsistent UCLA–have they fired Dorrell yet?). USC will have two losses and even if Cal loses to USC (which is the only team that has really had CAL’s number in the Tedford era), they will still win the Pac-10. They own the head to head with Oregon (who is my pick to finish #2). ASU will sputter per usual but still finish with 8 or 9 wins.
Jon,
I think some hit the points of ways for Cal to go to the Rose Bowl…
1. Win the Pac-10 out right by beating SC.
2. SC wins all the rest of its games and Cal only loses to SC.
- Now you didn’t think that would work in Cal’s favor, but I disagree. Here is why…
a. LSU will lose and most likely if I am betting to Auburn. Being an Auburn fan and watching them this last weekend Cox is finally playing back in 05 form. That is good news for the Tigers from the Plains. Florida had them and couldn’t manage turnover. Plus Auburn loves big games look at Tuberville’s record.
b. OSU I think will lose and it would be to Michigan. Crazy but I think that Michigan and Hart are starting to look good!?!?
Even without an OSU loss all the other competitors will have one loss. Do you think LSU would slip in or USC? Don’t forget LSU will probably have a rematch with Florida in the SEC Title Game (so maybe 2 losses for LSU)
3. Last way is Cal loses to SC but SC loses another “dumb” game. Least likely scenario but look at last year with OSU and UCLA.
Now here is the 64 million dollar question..if Cal wins every game from here on out would you put them in the National Championship? If not why, if so why?
Personally I am not a Bears fan but if they win them all it would be hard not to give them the chance for an N.C. However, I also think that ASU is still the big trap game for them, but we will see. And now they have to worry about Stanford as well (who would have thunk it!?)
Wow, fellow Bear fans. Let’s slow down. This is a crazy, wacky, anything-can-happen college football year. No Cal win is in the bag. This is still a very uneven team. Are we really the 2nd best team in the country? Based on wins over overrated Tennessee, a less-than-full-strength Arizona squad and a squeaker in Oregon?
This is Cal’s year…..They’ll win the rest of their games and will deservedly win the N.C. They’ve shown the country they can do what it takes to win. I see no one beating them. Those that ranked them so high will have to give them the N.C. when they go undefeated.
You heard it here first.
Just shows the Pac 10 is a weak conference. Go TIGERS and SEC!
Jon,
It was reported on CNN (Rumors) that Booty suffered a fracture to a finger on his throwing hand in the Stanfurd game. USC will likely go to the back-up QB this week, at least. Do you honestly think SC will win the rest of their Pac-10 games with their starting and seasoned QB injured? I don’t - not this SC team. Also, I have to agree with many others posting above concerning the mind-set of backing into the Rose Bowl. Cal is absolutely one of the best teams in the country at this point in the season, and they don’t need SC’s help to go to the Rose Bowl. I honestly think Cal can do it on their own, and should! The last Rose Bowl was 50 years ago, and when the Bears return they should enter through the FRONT door. Also, it is so important that Cal not drop a game they should win. I think we all remember how that sleeze Mack Brown earned a trip to the Rose Bowl on his knees. Not THIS year!
GO BEARS!
Were there games this weekend? I tuned out since it was a Bye week
But seriously, kudos to the Cardinal for the upset of the year (so far). Wilner called it correct in his article this morning that Stanford in one stroke has made themselves relevant in the Pac10…and have also entered the realm of “Quarterback Controversy” that all rebuilding teams face.
Now, as far as Cal’s fortunes go for this year, despite what the pundits/experts say, NOTHING has changed for the Bears since the end of the Oregon game. Wins/losses of other teams/conferences are irrelevant to what the Bears are hoping to achieve every single season.
…that’s finishing as the undisputed Pac10 champion, and if that happens to land the Bears in the BCS Championship game, that’s icing on the cake.
There is only one true road to the Pac10 championship — BEAT EVERYONE IN THE PAC10. And to reach that goal, the ONLY thing Cal can do at the moment is prepare for and beat Oregon State.
GO BEARS!
p.s.
People have been ignoring this, but now this game has pushed to the forefront USC’s offensive decline since the departure of Norm Chow.
5+ all-american backs and less than 100yards rushing? shocking.
Nonsense — football is played to win games, not ratings. I hope SC loses every game they play, unless its against some SEC team. Go Bears!
I’m with Ernie Kent.
Let the final Pac 10 finish be
Cal 1st
Oregon 2nd
USC 3rd
Let’s show the SEC the Pac 10 is the dominant conference.