Cal could get thumped, a critical time for Stanford and SJSU to Hawaii (A weekend preview)
Been pondering the Cal-USC game for a few days, and I can’t escape the feeling that the Bears are gonna get thumped.
I’m not talking about a four-touchdown differential or anything like that.
I’m talking about a no-frills beat down …
… Cal makes a few big plays early, maybe even grabs the lead, but USC grinds away, takes control and wins by 10 or 14 points.
Cal fans leave Memorial Stadium feeling like the Bears were never really in the game in the second half — never really had a legit chance to win.
I’m not sure why I feel that way, don’t have a great reason for thinking that: The Bears haven’t played well lately, but neither has USC — until last weekend, when it torched Oregon State.
Last weekend happened to be the first weekend in November.
The Trojans have NEVER LOST a November game under Pete Carroll: They’re 21-0 in six-plus seasons, an astounding record under any circumstance but especially so given that eight of their victims were ranked.
(And the Trojans take November to mean the 30 days of that month: they lost on Oct. 28 and Dec. 2 of last year but were 4-0 in between.)
USC’s late-season success is due to a range of factors:
The Trojans have big-game players and more quality depth than other teams, enabling them to better withstand injuries.
Also, Carroll places enormous emphasis on finishing strong, to the point that it has become as much a part of the program as Traveler, “Conquest” and hoping Reggie Bush doesn’t cost them the 2004 national title.
Meanwhile … as if Old Blues hadn’t noticed … Cal doesn’t finish quite so strong.
The Bears dropped three in a row and then struggled to beat a bad Washington State team. Cal scored 20 points on a defense that had been allowing almost 50 per game in three previous conference road games.
Something isn’t quite right with the Bears. Nate Longshore looks like he has lost confidence and rhythm, partly due, I’m sure, to his sprained ankle.
DeSean Jackson isn’t getting enough opportunities, perhaps because the Bears aren’t calling his number, or because Longshore isn’t finding him, or because defenses are doubling him, or because he’s not running precise routes.
Justin Forsett is showing that, while he’s certainly a good running back, he’s not an elite tailback — not a Marshawn Lynch or a Jonathan Stewart — not a guy who can break tackle after tackle, run over or around opponents.
Forsett usually needs space to be effective, and there hasn’t been a lot of space lately. (I thought the offensive line would be a little better than it has been.)
Whatever the reason, something’s not right. And it seems like something isn’t right with Cal at this time of year every year.
The Bears are the anti-USC: while the Trojans finish strong, Cal finishes fairly weak.
During the Tedford era, the Bears are just 20-13 21-13 in the second half of the season (which I defined as the middle of October through Big Game).
Since five of those wins have come against awful Stanford teams, the Bears are just 15-13 16-13 against the rest of the Pac-10 in the crucial second half of the season.
I’m not sure of the reason for that, and there is probably more than one.
The Bears have the same depth issues that plague most programs, and that was doubly true in the first few years of the Tedford era (because of all the losing under Tom Holmoe).
Also, the Bears by nature don’t do well in high-stakes games, which is part of the reason for the five-decade Rose Bowl drought.
What we’re seeing from Cal right now, it seems, is what we have seen from Cal in the past.
That doesn’t mean the Bears will lose Saturday to a program that thrives at this time of year — under these circumstances, in games just like this — but it sure feels like it.
*******
We’ve reached an interesting juncture (definitely not a “crossroads” yet) in the Jim Harbaugh era at Stanford — the first but surely not the last.
The Cardinal is reeling a bit: It has lost three of four since the upset of USC and been waxed in the past two games by a combined score of 50-15.
Harbaugh had to suspend receiver Richard Sherman for poor sideline conduct, and there are issues at quarterback with Tavita Pritchard’s shoulder and T.C. Ostrander’s ineffectiveness — actually, Pritchard hasn’t been all that effective when healthy, either.
Sure, the injuries are mounting, but that’s the case almost everywhere (Oregon’s without its starting receivers; UCLA’s without its top-two quarterbacks).
But how will the Cardinal respond to the skid, the uncertainty and the conditions tomorrow in Pullman (50 degrees, rain and turf)?
Past Stanford teams would have crumbled at this juncture.
I don’t expect that to happen. Stanford (3-6) is still playing off the emotional bounce that accompanied the coaching change. Harbaugh seems to have a firm grip on things — the guy seems to know how to lead.
But if Stanford does get beat by Washignton State — and thus officially eliminated from bowl contention — then the final games against Notre Dame and Cal become critical.
Just as players make their greatest improvement from Year One to Year Two, so do programs under new coaches.
What happens from December through August in the weight room, on the practice field and on the recruiting trail will be go a long way toward determing whether Stanford can crawl out of this mess.
The Cardinal desperately needs to carry some momentum into the offseason.
Four wins, including the upset of USC, would absolutely constitute momentum for a program that went 1-11 last year.
A season-ending five-game losing streak, including several losses to bad teams, would not.
*****
Before the season, if Sparta had been told that that a bowl bid would hinge largely on beating three mediocre teams down the stretch … that might have sounded pretty good.
Although it seems like a stretch now, that’s essentially what we’re looking at.
If SJSU beats New Mexico State (4-6), Louisiana Tech (4-5) and Nevada (5-4), there’s a good chance the Spartans will end up in a bowl game — perhaps in the Hawaii Bowl.
That’s because despite being No. 16 in the current Bowl Championship Series standings, Hawaii still looks like a solid bet to climb into the top-12 if it runs the table.
Such a development would push the Warriors into a BCS game and open a bowl spot for the Spartans (if they win their final three).
Hawaii will get a solid bump in the BCS computer component for playing Fresno State, Boise State and Washington down the stretch — all in Honolulu, by the way — and there are several teams above UH that figure to lose in the final month.
(Florida, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Connecticut and Arizona State come to mind.)
Like I said, the situation doesn’t look so desperate for SJSU’s postseason hopes, at least on paper.
But it feels a bit dire, doesn’t it?
Nah, Cal will be wearing the gold jerseys. ‘Nuff said.
IMHO- The reason it seems dire for SJS to go to a bowl is the fact that this bowl longshot has too many dependancies. Not only do the Spartans have to beat New Mexico State, Louisianna Tech and Nevada but HAWAII must beat Fresno State, BOISE STATE and Washington to get in it seems. Hawaii has the home field advantage but BOISE STATE especially stills has BCS hopes with only 1 loss on their record (Washington pre-melt). Curious where BSU is ranked now and if the remaining games can acquire enough points for them to crash the party again. Remember BSU is like 36-1 in WAC play over the past like 4 years or something ridiculous…
Which brings me to my question Jon:
What are the NCAA rules concerning practice? I have a theory as to why BSU and some other schools seem to always execute so much better than the rest of the teams in the country. I’m not making any accusations but I think there might be a loophole.
~mws
I’m not saying the 2002-2006 20win-10loss record is great, but the statistical leaps to get to a 15-13 record is quite a stretch.
While I certainly have called the Cardinal irrelevant, you’ve taken it another notch by simply dismissing 5 games. And if you are analyzing the “last 6 games of the season” then including this years 3 losses in the total is a nice sleight of hand in calculation.
Who’ll win? The team that makes less mistakes. Yes, this is an obvious statement, but sometimes these need to be repeated in light of the endless search for patterns and reason in sports.
Despite the lower post-season stakes, Cal-USC is still the game of the year for Bear fans, and despite what many think, the Bears are as likely to win this game as the Trojans.
GO BEARS!
I am responding to Jon’s recent article about what bowls he thinks the Pac 10 teams will play in, and what it will take for Cal to play in the Rose Bowl.
While not likely, there is still a reasonable chance for Cal to go to the Rose Bowl, and several scenarios which would lead to that result. Here is what I believe is the most likely scenario:
1. Oregon goes to the BCS championship game. To do that, Oregon needs to pass either Ohio State or LSU. I think it is more likely that Oregon passes OSU. It has a tough game against Illinois, at home, and then plays Michigan at Michigan, a team that has won eight straight. If it loses that game, Oregon has several things going for it in being ranked higher than OSU in the BCS — a) OSU’s loss will have more recent than Oregon’s, always an important factor (though it really shouldn’t be) b) OSU plays in a weaker conference than does Oregon, c) OSU had an extremely lollipop schedule at the beginning of the year, and (finally, and most important) d) OSU would have lost to the only common opponent they had with Oregon, which is Michigan, which Oregon beat at Michigan.
LSU has a very weak schedule the rest of the way, but still has to play a 13th game against the SEC East champ. If it loses that game, Oregon passes them up (assuming, of course, Oregon wins out).
2. Cal finishes in a three-way tie with USC and ASU. As Jon points out, under the Pac 10 rules, since Cal, USC, and ASU will all have records of 1 and 1 against the tied teams, then the next tie breaker will go to Cal, as Cal will be the only tied team that beat a higher finishing Pac 10 team, Oregon.
If Cal beats USC this weekend, it already will be tied with USC in the Pac 10 standings. I believe ASU plays USC and Arizona at home, and UCLA on the road. It could reasonably lose two of those games, especially taking into account that Arizona has been playing well of late.
So Bear fans, do not give up hope! As Joe Kapp once said, after the famous “The Play,” “the Bear does not quit, the Bear does not die.”
MWS,
The reason Boise State executes so much better than other teams is that they have players with great character who out-work other teams. BSU players set high goals & believe they will achieve them. BSU only recruits quality student-athletes with positive attitudes toward winning. Boise State also has a better coaching staff than most other football programs. Don’t try to find phony reasons why BSU is so much better than other WAC teams, especially your beloved Spartans.
I believe the game of the year for the Bears will be against Stanford. Their season is already a disaster. We just have to hope it doesn’t become a devastating season with a loss to the Cardinal. Cal isn’t going to a BCS Bowl so the USC game is no big deal. It sure could of been, but it ain’t. Cal will probably end up with a winning season & get to some lower tier bowl game. We Bear fans should be happy with this because it’s a lot better than when Holme was the coach! Tedford is Cal’s savior. We can just about count on a bowl game every year. I know that makes me happy & content. Bear fans are easily pleased!! What a shame!
Great Post, Bob - and although the ASU loss was the true turning point in Cal’s post-season possiblilities, its great to know we have fan support that matches the attitude of the team and still is fighting/hoping for the best.
“THE BEAR DOES NOT QUIT” - truer words have never been spoken.
Tedford is really a genius. He is pretending to play Longshore (even letting Longshore goof around in the WSU game). In reality Tedford is planning on playing Riley. Tedford knows that $C has been studying film, but there hasn’t been much film on Riley. $C also thinks their D is going to eat up Longshore. The surprise is that Riley is going to start and $C wouldn’t have had time to study film and our QB is going to be more mobile than $C thought.
Maybe the Bear doesn’t quit or die but perhaps he’s just time challenged. It might help if Bears (and their QB’s) kept at least one eye on the clock.
Lefty -
One could say Stanford is keeping one eye on the clock and not both eyes on the weights. Perhaps the clock-watching by Cardinal players in the weight/conditioning room has been a factor in another injury-riddled season?
Let me get this straight, “THE BEAR DOES NOT QUIT”. At least you guys have one redeeming quality. Go Ducks.
9/29/07
31:24
enough said
bears will be wearing THROWBACKS against USC. no gold jerseys, in which we’re undefeated. should be some sweet gold helmets though
Definitely some questionable calculations going on. The premise of this Cal piece is that USC strengthens at the end of the year, Cal wilts.
This is just not born out if you use reasonable, consistent numbers. Wilner’s analysis is marginal at best - it uses November as the measuring stick for USC, and the “second half” (ugg - hard to define what that means!) for Cal.
While I have absolutely no doubt that USC has a better record in take your pick: November or the second half of the season - it is not due to wilting. It is just that USC has a better overall record period - second half of the season or not!
The numbers (2002 - present, the Tedford years, for Cal. 2001- present, the PC years, for USC)
Overall record:
Cal 49-23, 0.68 winning percent
USC 72-14, 0.83 winning percent
In November:
Cal 11-6, 0.64 winning percent (look at that! a single percentage point off of the overall…interesting…)
USC 21-0, 1.00 winning percent (wow! Impressive any way you look at it)
In the “second half”: (I defined as last 6 games for a 12 game season, last 7 for a 13 game season. Imperfect at best - but not my idea to use “second half”)
Cal 23-13, 0.63 winning percent (five percentage points off of the overall…interesting…)
USC 38-6, 0.86 winning percent (three percentage points better than their overall)
So IMHO this argument is bunk. Cal does almost exactly the same in November and the “second half” of the season as it does overall. USC has the anomaly of November in there, but it is balanced out with losses in bowl games and late October games to the point that their winning percentage in the “second half” of the season is on par with their overall record during the time span.
I bet the vast majority of teams would show a worse winning percentage in the “second half” of the season - you usually schedule the OOC easier games up front! USC is obviously an exception to that thought, and for that I give them props. But to say that Cal “finishes fairly weak” is just plain wrong.
JaySee,
So what! Who’s the best now! Who’s going to a big time Bowl? The Ducks. Who’s going to a toilet type bowl? The Bears. You got lucky & stole one from us, but the cream always rises to the top. Go Ducks. Enjoy cold & windy El Paso.
Did we steal one from Oregon? Probably.
Would we be taunting you if Dixon were injured in that game rather than Longshore and our positions were reversed? Hopefully not but who knows.
I think Oregon and Cal and very evenly matched. If that game were played in Berkeley, I’d say that you’d have to steal it from us to win.
That’s football.
You stay classy, Eugene
Eugene - yup the University of Niketown is ranked #3. Phil Knight is god. All Oregon fans are models and you guys still lost head-to-head to Cal. Again, people seem to forget the Ducks last play in the game was “to tie” the game, not win it outright. To say that Oregon is vastly better then Cal, based on a blown tie, is baloney.
Go SJS!!!! I believe we will win the last 3 because the offensive line has gained experience and knowledge the past 2 games. An improved running game will allow for a more open offense and this will help the defense. I like our chances of making it to a bowl.
It’s good to read the posts that indicate that optimism is creaping back into the spirits of Bear fans. If it takes the Bears another 50 years to get to the Rose Bowl, I’ll still be happier supporting them and Coach Tedford than any of the SC’s, LSU’s, and Ohio State’s of collegiate football, not to mention Stanford’s girlie men. (What ever happened to Stanford football, anyway?) I was in Memorial Stadium in 2003 when the Bears beat a better USC team, and we can do it again. Go Bears! Beat the Trojan!
I woke up this morning with a strong-gut feeling that I would like to share with my fellow bloggers. I believe that Fresno State will upset Hawaii tonight in beautiful Honolulu. Fresno State is tough & physical. They are vastly improved and are due for a big win. Hawaii is living on borrowed time and will fold under the intense pressure that FSU will bring to this game.
Fresno State 35 Hawaii 31, or 45 to 41.
San Jose State goes nowhere. No winning season. No bowl game. No nothing. It’s time to start recruiting top California JC players for the 2008 Spartan program.I would love to SJSU become competitive, but that ain’t going to happen until they get some top-notch players in their program. (mainly QB, WR, RB, LB’s, & DB’s) Skill, Skill, Skill, on both sides of the ball. Best of luck to the Spartans today! Boise State should be 10-1 when they play Hawaii in a couple of weeks. If the finish 11-1 they should be in a quality Bowl Game. I would love to see them play a PAC 10 team in a bowl game!!!
Nice take on the Stanford analysis. I don’t see Stanford beating Wazzoo or Cal, but you never know. (See USC.) The Notre Dame game will be very important for off-season chemistry and recruiting. And I agree Harbaugh seems to be doing a great job with what talent he has.
Ya know Broncoboss …. you could very well be right with your Hawaii pick. Fresno State is a pretty decent team and the games line (-17.5) seems to be more about the island mystique and the suspect rating rather than actual football. On the other hand the Bulldogs have a bad history in Honolulu.
As for the Bronco’s bowling prospects - after last year Boise is sure-fire ratings magic and will have bowls fighting over them come late November. That can’t hurt.
errr - I can’t subtract. Cal November winning percentage is off four points (three if you round) from overall, not one point. Would not have changed my thesis, though.
Sorry ’bout that. Must have been looking at the second half 0.63 to the November 0.64…
Sorry Bear Fans,
Longshore stinks & so does Tedford. Eventually Cal fans are going to have to accept this fact!
I don’t think Tedford stinks; Holmoe, Gilbertson, & Mariucci stunk.
Longshore’s play or lack of, was highlighted in a stat which detailed his propensity to throw interceptions in the fourth quarter of games.
Longshore’s ankle looked to be fine, but his head wasn’t.
The defense played well but the tackling was sloppy at times. Given that the game was played in the rain and the traction was crap, both teams played pretty well.
We are fading heading into the last two games.
The Pac-10 is getting tougher with ASU on the rise and UW will be better because their freshman QB will have a year of experience under his belt.
From #2 to out of the top 25, this has been a painful season.
To LaughingBear ann Milo:
Take your silly little dollar sign and stuff it. Better luck next decade! USC will always be better than your little bears, because we don’t make excuses when we are not up to par. We just suck it up and move on.
Guess which bowl game you won’t be playing in again on January 1???
Can you imagine how bad New Mexico State must be? San Jose State scored 51 points on them. The Spartans could not have scored more than 20 points against Boise State if Boise State had not shown up for the game. SJSU was shut out by Fresno State and then one week later they scored 7 pts. vs BSU. I think they had about 125 yards total offense vs BSU. Then they score 51 vs New Mexico State. WOW. NMS must have the worse defense in the country. I can’t see SJSU scoring much against anybody.
T65 - when have I EVER used a “$”?
I never use “Stanfurd”, “U$C” or other jabs when referring to a team, just the university or mascot name. the fact that you are disturbed by it is amusing to me, but I can’t take any credit for the term. I hope you’re not losing your memory.
People shouldn’t pick on New Mexico State. The Aggies roster probably isn’t dominated by California kids. The only reason Boise is even mentioned at all anywhere is because of this tragedy.
I was at the game and I thought they played really well. I hope NMSU all the best in the future and if anyone should model themselves after Boise it’s NMSU, Idaho and Utah State. Recruit players from California and don’t even bother going to class just practice 24 hours a day 7 days a week.
There is no other explanation why BSU executes so flawlessly, they should be on the NCAA watch list and then punished accordingly.
~mws
MWS,
Such Sour Grapes! BSU is great because of high quality-good character players and coaches, and they work harder than other football teams. BSU shows other programs what can be done when high quality exists in your program. Maybe SJSU should practice in the afternoon when everyone is awake. They have sleep-walked through several of their games, especially at Boise. I was there & saw the sleep walking Spartans trying to wake up but couldn’t.