My AP poll: The case against Kansas (it’s an easy one to make)
In case anyone forgot, we were reminded this week that the second most important position on any team is the backup quarterback.
Had Dennis Dixon not crumpled to the ground, Oregon would have beaten Arizona 50-something to 20-something.
Even though Dixon is done for the year, I evaluated Oregon based on losing that game, on the road, to a mediocre conference opponent — not based on what kind of team the Ducks will be without Dixon.
I don’t think that would be fair at this point, but the question might have to be asked next weekend, depending on how they perform against UCLA with Brady Leaf at the controls.
(Oklahoma was evaluated in the same manner.)
Anyhow, onto Kansas, which I ranked No. 6 (again). I had the Jayhawks higher than their AP rank for several weeks but had not moved them up this month because of a lack of quality wins, which has grown more pronounced as we’ve gotten deeper into the season.
This week, I jumped West Virginia and Virginia Tech over the Jayhawks, and I now have three two-loss teams ahead of undefeated KU.
And the explanation is simple: We’re almost at Thanksgiving, and the Jayhawks remain untested:
* Their best wins are over two 6-5 teams: Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.
* Their non-conference schedule was putrid: Central Michigan, Southeast Louisiana, Toledo and Florida International.
(Unlike, say, Okahoma, which faced Miami in a down year, the Jayhawks didn’ even attempt to schedule a quality opponent.)
* They have not played Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech, which have a combined record of 36-9.
* Their Big 12 victories have come against teams with a combined record of 33-46.
* Their strength-of-schedule is ranked No. 101 by the Sagarin computer.
(Given that, and the fact that victory margin is not supposed to count in the BCS computers, I can’t understand why Sagarin has KU as his No. 1 team.)
Since my ranking system is based not on record but on quality wins (and quality losses, for that matter), I’m very comfortable having the Jayhawks behind all those two-loss teams.
They might end up being the best team in the country, but they have given me no substantive reason to rank them in the top five. A perfect record isn’t enough.
As I’ve written repeatedly on this blog this season (regarding, at various times, West Virginia, Rutgers, Hawaii and Ohio State), who you play matters.
To wait until Nov. 24, when KU plays Missouri, to find out how good a team is — frankly, that’s a joke.
Onto the ballot …
(Please note: I’m having computer problem — can’t access the coding functions — and have to provide a trimmed-down version of the usual ballot.)
1. Louisiana State
Last week: 1
Comment: Could the Tigers make the BCS title game if they lose the SEC? They could if enough teams lose.
2. Missouri
Last week: 3
Comment: Moved the Tigers, whose win over Illinois looks better and better, up one spot.
3. Georgia
Last week: 5
Comment: Dawgs have won their last three SEC games by at least 10 points.
4. West Virginia
Last week: 7
Comment: Jumped the Mountaineers over Kansas based on quality win at Cincinnati (8-3).
5. Virginia Tech
Last week: 8
Comment: Jumped the Hokies over Kansas based on wins by Georgia Tech and Florida State, which gave each team a total of seven — more wins than any team Kansas has played. (And the Hokies also beat Clemson.)
6. Kansas
Last week: 6
Comment: With Oregon losing, Jayhawks are now two wins from the BCS title game, where they could face LSU, West Virginia or (hard to believe but true) Ohio State.
7. Oregon
Last week: 2
Comment: Without Dennis Dixon, Ducks in danger of dropping from BCS title contenders into … the Sun Bowl?
8. Oklahoma
Last week: 4
Comment: Sooners still control their Big 12 fate. Beat OSU, and they’re in the title game.
9. Florida
Last week: 9
Comment: Two of three losses are to two of my top-three teams (LSU and Georgia).
10. USC
Last week: 10
Comment: If the Trojans had just stopped Stanford on fourth down — Stanford! — they’d smack in the middle of the BCS title hunt.
11. Ohio State
Last week: 11
Comment: Any other year, and an 11-point win in the Big House would be awfully impressive. But that’s 21 points less than Oregon’s victory margin there.
12. Arizona State
Last week: 12
Comment: Devils control their fate: Win out, and they’re in the Rose Bowl.
13. Tennessee
Last week: 13
Comment: Winning streak at four after huge rally to beat Vandy.
14. Boston College
Last week: 14
Comment: It took a huge game from Matt Ryan to end the losing streak, but that’s what elite QBs are supposed to do.
15. Cincinnati
Last week: 15
Comment: Kept Bearcats where they were after close loss to West Virginia.
16. Illinois
Last week: 16
Comment: If they had managed to beat Iowa, Illini would be headed to the Rose Bowl.
17. Texas
Last week: 17
Comment: Amazingly, Longhorns could sneak into the BCS — and what a joke that would be.
18. Auburn
Last week: 20
Comment: A month ago, the Iron Bowl looked like it would have some significance outside the state line, but Bama’s freefall took care of that.
19. Clemson
Last week: 19
Comment: Couldn’t keep BC out of the end zone in the final minutes, and that cost the Tigers a shot at the BCS.
20. Texas Tech
Last week: NR
Comment: Raiders have eight wins and a victory over Oklahoma, a resume that stacks up fairly well compared to the teams below them.
21. Boise State
Last week: 22
Comment: Worst-case scenario for the WAC: Hawaii beats Boise, then loses to Washington … and neither team jumps into the BCS.
22. Virginia
Last week: 23
Comment: UVa vs. VaTech for the ACC Coastal title in Charlottesville — what a great rivalry game that should be.
23. Hawaii
Last week: 24
Comment: Fairly impressive win at Nevada without Colt Brennan. I had pegged that as a loss for the Warriors. But it’s still not much compared to the best wins of other top-25 teams
24. Connecticut
Last week: 25
Comment: So much for UConn ending up in the Rose Bowl. (It could have happened if Oregon had run the table.)
25. Florida State
Last week: NR
Comment: Had my usual problem trying to find a worthy team for the last spot. It wasn’t going to anyone from the Big Ten, that’s for sure.
Jon - You seem to be treating Kansas almost as if they are from a less respected conference like the MAC or WAC. I understand that their schedule has not included a challenging opponent. I presume that you would give them a move up if they beat Missouri (maybe even to #2).
My question is why KU is 17 places higher in your poll than Hawaii which is also undefeated over very weak schedule of opponents? If you were waiting for both teams to prove themselves, why not treat them similarly? Is the difference reflective of the respect accorded a big 6 conference vs. a non-big 6 conference?
One additional comment - I have no problem with a 2 loss team making the BCS Championship game. It almost happened in 2002 when a 2 loss Colorado team earned its way into the championship game but was edged out by Nebraska.
So consider this scenario - Tennessee will play LSU in the SEC championship gaem if the Vols beat Kentucky next week. Could Georgia make the BCS game by sitting out the SEC championship game and hoping that the teams ahead of them (LSU, KU, Missouri) lose?
To be fair Jon, Oregon didn’t have the piss poor weather we did. Plus, it should have been easy to see that Michigan’s defense is playing a lot better now than they did against the Ducks (and Mountaineers, for that matter).
I’m not sold on either VT or USC being above us (or anyone, for that matter. Personally, I refuse to rank them in my Top 15). But your reasoning isn’t that bad, so I’ll accept it.
I guess you will eat crow after ASU defeats USC and Arizona. At that point they will be a 10-1 team. They could end up as one of the few 10-1 teams along with OSU and maybe Kansas or Missouri. Then are you going to put all the 2 loss teams over the 1 loss teams? You will probably do it and come along with all kinds of lame excuses and weird logic to justify your ranking. The current OU team can’t beat the current ASU team though OU won last week, but you will still rank OU over ASU.
Ok, we get it. You don’t think the Big Ten is any good. Conferences have down years. The Pac-Ten used to stink. Did something bad happen in the midwest years ago? It seems like some journalistic vendetta against Big-Ten football.
11 top 5 teams have lost to unranked opponents this year. It’s really comforting to know these same voters are picking the two teams that will play for a national title. I’m sure they’ll get it right. Who can argue. They’ve been so perfect.
Ohio State held Michigan to 91 yards total offense. The first time Michigan was held under 100 yards of offense against anyone (including Oregon) since 1962. Ohio State didn’t need to do anything but eat up clock in the second half. Why risk a turnover when it’s snowing and a soaking 37 degrees.
Jon
You are soo right. KU is a fraud (albiet on a euphoria-enduced roll) that Mizzou will expose next weekend. But, not to be missed in this is just how good and fun to watch Missouri is this year. They average about 44 pts a game (only team to score 30+ in all games). They’ve beaten 6 teams ranked at some point this season (only 3 at home) Illinois, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Colorado, Texas A&M, Kansas State. Their only loss was at #9/10 Oklahoma (where no one wins) and they have a great chance to avenge it on a neutral site potentially making Mizzou the only team to have defeated EVERY team on its schedule (assuming Hawaii loses to Boise and even then, pleeeeze, we all saw that woeful SJSU game where, many INTS and junior college-like play later, the Warriors lucked out again). Give it a week, and the KU hype will be done, while Mizzou’s amazing season will finally be getting the attention it deserves.
Yo Hugh … AP poll hasn’t been a factor in the BCS for a couple of seasons. And Jeff … the weather? Really. This just in, it rains in Nov. … deal with it.
If I’m mistaken, maybe I am, who knows, but I think those 11 teams were also in the Coaches, and later in the Harris polls. I could be wrong. I don’t know. My point was against the BCS system, I guess I should have been more specific. There has never been a true national champion in Division 1 college football. Jon, just happens to be indicative of everything that is wrong with the system. Maybe it’s just me, Maybe all of the other organized sports on the planet are wrong. The system college football has adopted, (AP not part of the BCS) must be correct.
Oops, I did it again. I wasn’t specific. I’m advocating for a playoff system involving all conference champions, wild cards are welcome.
Kansas is undefeated and part of the Big 12? How can they not be 1 or 2? I’m a UCLA fan but used to your wacko way of looking at things. Does winning all the games matter to you, Jon?
I was wondering if you have a brain whatsoever? You have to be the biggest douche in the world. You give Hawaii problems about them winning the close games against SJSU, and Nevada as well as La Tech. But last year Boise St. beat SJSU by only a mere score of 23-20. And Texas Tech gets lucky one week and u have them ahead of Hawaii? Dont you remember the spanking they got from Colorado and Texas? Oh well, your a dumbass.
Also, dont forget the Missouri game too !
Nothing is ever going to satisfy Wilner when it comes to Hawaii. Guys like him are the reason why we need a playoff system, since the little guy will never get any breaks even in a town with two WAC teams (San Jose State and Fresno State).
You’d figure their hometown paper would at least support their conference teams, especially with those teams already having to deal with the east-coast bias.
Krusha:
How do you think Hawaii would fare in the Pac10? Could they win 6 games? Not even a close call. USC, Oregon, ASU, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington would beat them by at least 2 TD’s each. Get a life!
Hawaii would be lucky to go 3-6 in the Pac-10.
Btw, Washington is going to beat Hawaii at Hawaii if Locker is healthy
If Hawaii’s barely getting past the WAC, I think 3-6 vs. the Pac-10 is even a reach. And spare us the crocodile tears about the Brennan hit or you didn’t like playing in the rain at San Jose. Week in, week out, the Pac-10 has better athletes at every position.
However absurd anyone’s argument goes regarding the ranking of #2 Kansas (I think its been earned - and this is coming from a Husker), what’s even more ridiculous is that Cal still receives votes!
“Since my ranking system is based not on record but on quality wins (and quality losses, for that matter)”
“As I’ve written repeatedly on this blog this season (regarding, at various times, West Virginia, Rutgers, Hawaii and Ohio State), who you play matters.”
Jon,
Apparently you’re Pac-10 bias/Big Ten hatred overrides your above reasoning.
USC Opponents Record Score
W Idaho (1-10) 38-10
W Nebraska (5-6) 49-31
W Washington St. (4-7) 47-14
W Washington (4-7) 27-24
L Stanford (3-7) 23-24
W Arizona (5-6) 20-13
W Notre Dame (2-9) 38-0
L Oregon (8-2) 17-24
W Oregon St. (7-4) 24-3
W California (6-5) 24-17
OSU Opponents Record Score
W Youngstown St. (7-4) 38-6
W Akron (4-7) 20-2
W Washington (4-7) 33-14
W Northwestern (6-6) 58-7
W Minnesota (1-11) 30-7
W Purdue (7-5) 23-7
W Kent St. (3-8) 48-3
W Michigan St. (7-5) 24-17
W Penn St. (8-4) 37-17
W Wisconsin (9-3) 38-17
L Illinois (9-3) 21-28
W Michigan (8-4) 14-3
USC’s best win was against 7-4 Oregon St.
OSU has beat 9-3 Wisconsin, 8-4 Penn St, & 8-4 Michigan.
USC lost to 3-7 Stanford and 8-2 Oregon.
OSU lost to 9-3 Illinois.
USC’s opponents combined record 45-63.
OSU’s opponents combined record 73-67.
USC’s avg score 30.7 to 16.0.
OSU’s avg score 32.0 to 10.7.
Both teams played Washington.
USC wins 27-24.
OSU wins 33-14.
I can’t find 1 reason USC should be ahead of OSU. Please explain your reasoning again Jon. You make the AP Poll a joke week in and week out.
Observation: Colt Brennan is not any better than his back-up Grunke. (spelling?) It’s their system & skill players plus the easiest schedule in the history of college football that has propelled Hawaii to a 10-0 record. I’m confident Boise State will figure out a way to beat them.
You guys think Hawaii would suck in the PAC-10, but look who’s in first place right now in that conference… Arizona State? Remember what happened to Rudy Carpenter at Aloha Stadium last year?
By the way, I hope you all watch the UH vs BSU game on TV this Friday to see some bronco busting. Doesn’t matter who the QB is for UH, they’ll still win, and winning is all that matters really.
I’m also tired of hearing people say UH plays a weak schedule, blah blah blah. The bottom line is they’re undefeated and beat 5 teams on the road this year. Only one other team in the country can say that. Just keep on whining like Wilner, since we’ll be 13-0 to end the season like Boise did last year and there’s nothing anybody can do about it.
Krusha:
I can think of 8, no maybe 9, Pac-10 teams who would be 13-0 if they played the same schedule as Hawaii. So what! Until your ‘Bows play a real schedule, nobody will care.
Jon, I wish I had the time to refute your horrible poll (top to bottom). But it make take me all day since this is the worst poll you’ve ever issued, and that’s saying a lot.
But I will make one comment only. Did you actually watch the OSU/UM game? The weather was a severe factor as to why OSU did not score anymore points. A sleet/cold rain fell the entire game makeing footing and passing treacherous at best. The OSU defense was dominant, allowing less than 100 total yards of offense. Tressel deceided once he was up by two scores to run the ball the entire second half because he did not want to turn the ball over and he was confidant UM couldn’t drive on that tough OSU defense.
Not to mention Tressel is a classy coach. He could definitely have run up the score, but probably knew Carr was going to retire and didnt want to embarass him in his last Big10 game. Also, piling it on would provide extra motivation to UM next year in the “rivalry”.
I truly hope the AP actually looks at your extreme biased picks and boots you from voting next year. You really are pathetic.
OK I lied, a few more comments. Your hatred for the Big10 shows in your comment on Florida St. How a 7-4 ACC team is better than 9-3 Wisconsin team is beyond me.
And this suppossed strength of the SEC? Tennessee who could play LSU in their CG, struggled to beat Vandy. South Carolina, who you had ranked number 2 or 3 earlier, has completely tanked. And Alabama, who gave LSU all they could handle, lost to LA-Monroe. That loss is very bad (hmmm sounds like some Big10 losses eh?). I will laugh sooo hard if the ACC cripples these elite SEC teams next week (five matchups).
Krusha,
Hawaii 13-0 and nobody can do anything about it. I beg to differ. Boise State can do something about it, and they will this Fri. night in beautiful Honolulu. Comparing this year’s Hawaii team to last year’s Boise State team shows your total lack of college football knowledge. I guess since Hawaii has a good record this year you just jumped on their bandwagon. Hawaii is finally going to have to play two tough opponents. 10-2 is a good record & one that the “Fighting Rainbows” can be proud of….
Aloha, or Mahalo whichever one.
I’m glad that Hawaii is playing Boise at the ending part of the season, since if Hawaii played Boise around the same time last season, Boise would have been stomped big time and we wouldn’t even be having this conversation right now.
Oh don’t mind me, guys, i’m just here waiting for MIke the Tiger to tell me how omg amazing the SEC is, ESPECIALLY after Alabama’s loss to UL Monroe AT HOME.
Hey Wilner,
WHERES YOUR (SEC) GOD NOW?
Hey Spartan, I was pulling for ULM. I am from Louisiana and I hate Alabama to death. I hope Ala loses every game. Hate Saban for what he has done. He left a great job, now he is trying to recruite from Louisiana. Telling them that Alabama offers a better education. He is a snake in the grass.
I am not an SEC lover my any means. My favorite team is Tulane. Matt Forte over 2000 yards for the season.
We have an old pac 10 coach, Bob . Maybe next year for the Green Wave! I like Arkansas, because of Houston Nutt. I think he is a hell of coach. He always does something with nothing. And I pull for Louisiana Teams.
What was so odd last week was WEST MONROE HIGH was 2nd ranked in the country and got upset. Then University of Monroe upset Alabama. I guess you have to take the good with the bad. If fans in Monroe would have to pick. They would have wanted West Monroe to win their playoff game. Even with the upset of Alabama, that city is depressed with the loss.
Plus Spartan, Alabama was a favorite by 21 points. USC was favored by 41 points to Stanford. Upsets will happen. Are we just going to ingnore that USC upset! Hey and what about the Irish and UCLA or UCLA and Utah and so on. Oh, and Arizona and Oregon.
I quess all you west cost fokes are all the same. Rules are made for other people, just not for you.
Remember what you say comes around and haunts you.
OMG-UCLA when they win out and ASU loses to USC and Arizona will win the Pac 10.
OMG, OMG, OMG, OMG—Spartan. Can you believe this!
Powerfull Pac 10 rises again! I guess Jon was right all the time. You just don’t want to hear him. Your ears and eyes are closed and your mouth is always open with all that stupidy you write.
You can’t respond anymore, because nobody respects your opion.
JON WAS RIGHT. Can you say it.
Krusha, Happy Thanksgiving.
You will probably be eating Turkey tomorrow (Thurs.), but you will be eating “crow” Friday night. U. of Hawaii is going to be like Boise State’s turf “BLUE”. Hey, Blue Hawaii, sounds like a name for a good song. Have a good one. Just having some fun so don’t cuss me out.
Sincerely, Bb
Jon,
When youdecide to rank OSU so low and make the claim that Oregon beat Um by so many more points… you do, uhm, realize that the Oregon game as played in September in very nice weather and the OSU-UM game was played in a freezing rain with pretty good winds?
You know, weather has something to do with how offenses play in a game? Your comparison of margin of victory is sad. We won’t even mention the “rivalry aspect.”
Hey, if you are going to disrespect teams and over-respect others, at least take it ALL into consideration.
Broncoboss, I’ll save a helping of crowmeat for you to enjoy for breakfast on Saturday. Hope you stay up late to watch the whole game.
Placing OSU lowly at #11 is really more than bizarre when you consider AP voting patterns in general. Do you have a bias against the Big 10?
Hi Krusha,
Thanks for your confident reply. I will definitely watch every second of the game no matter how late it gets. Boise State has a way of making things exciting. Sometimes they have to win the game near the end. I’m sure you remember the Fiesta Bowl last year. Many people turned the game off after Oklahoma intercepted a pass for a TD very late in the game. Then came BSU’s hook & lateral on 4th down-then the the overtime TD on 4th down-&-then finally the 2pt. statue of liberty play to beat U. of Oklahoma & become the Fiesta Bowl Champions. Earlier this year BSU beat Nevada in 4 overtimes when it looked for sure like they would lose.
I hope you enjoyed this history lesson about Boise State’s drive to excellence.
Comment on Hawaii: Overtime wins vs San Jose State & LA. Tech plus a very close 2pt. win at Nevada. None of these teams is close to having a winning record.
And finally, I will look forward to a post from you late Fri. night, or Sat. morning. I will be enjoying my Boise, Idaho hash brown potatoes. Crowmeat later if necessary. If BSU loses I will take it like a man & cry uncontrollably until the crowmeat arrives. Seriously, have a Happy Thanksgiving Day. Big Bb!
Krusha,
Congrats on the Hawaii win. No excuses-No bad-mouthing-No sarcasm. Hawaii out-played BSU & deserved to win. Good luck next week vs Washington & hopefully in a BCS Bowl. We will get you next year in Boise! I just finished eating “Crow”. Doesn’t really taste too good, but I promised to eat crow & I am! The Boise potatoes will have to wait.
http://www.pollspeak.com
Congrats on being awarded the worst voter for the 2nd time this season. I expect this won’t be your last. How low will you rank Ohio State this week?
Thanks Broncoboss. Those Broncos played well, and kick ass on special teams. Good luck on their bowl game.
Hawaii just needs to take care of business next week, since even a down Washington team can beat anybody if UH isn’t carefull.
Yes, and had Sam Bradford not crumpled to the ground, OU would have beat T-Tech. Now we are a 2 loss team getting no respect. We beat Texas, Texas A&M, non-conference Miami AND are Mizzou’s loss of the year!
Yet, LSU and other 2 loss teams still get ranked above the Sooners.