BCS and Pac-10 bowl projections (updated with Oregon & Oklahoma losses)
That’s didn’t go so well, did it? As I feared, last week’s bowl projections were valid for less than a day, because that night, Oregon lost to Arizona.
No way to predict that Dennis Dixon would have crumpled to the ground untouched, completely redrawing the bowl picture.
The projections included five assumptions, of which only Oregon’s loss proved erroneous. (I had Oklahoma winning the Big 12, which can still happen.)
But before we get busy with revised projections, a not-so-quick thought on the BCS situation.
If you ever wonder why there’s no playoff, one reason — perhaps the biggest reason — is that the commissioners of the Big Six conferences don’t want to relinquish the control they current possess.
Here’s one example: the decision to expand the at-large pool to include teams ranked in the top 18 of the final BCS standings (not just the top-14).
They didn’t have to discuss it with network execs, or have it approved by some NCAA sub-committee for the executive management council/clearinghouse of administration and eligibility/postseason operations/inanity.
They needed to expand the pool, and they did it — quick and simple.
Why give up that control?
Anyhow, the decision was absolutely necessary, because we’re looking at the possibility of not having enough eligible teams in the top-14 to fill all the at-large slots (remember, only two teams per Big Six conference can play in the BCS).
So, here we are, two weeks left, a dozen possibilities — one of which includes Ohio State crawling into the BCS title game (heaven help us!).
Frankly, now that Oregon’s out, I’m not too excited by any of the possibilities. LSU-Kansas/Missouri/West Virginia? No thanks. And if LSU doesn’ make it? Double-ugh.
This week, more assumptions:
* In the SEC: That LSU runs the table and remains No. 1 in the BCS.
* In the Big 12: That the Missouri wins the title and is No. 2 in the BCS. (I think Mizzou is better than Kansas; actually, I think Oklahoma is better than both if Sam Bradford’s healthy).
* In the Big East: That West Virginia runs the table.
* In the Pac-10: That USC beats Arizona State, Oregon loses again (to UCLA or Oregon State) and ASU beats Arizona.
* In the ACC: That Boston College and VaTech meet in the conference championship.
* In the WAC: That neither Hawaii nor Boise State is eligible for the BCS.
OK, let’s take another shot at this.
***Bowl Championship Series
BCS title game: LSU vs. Missouri
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Ohio State (Could have been much worse if Michigan had won the Big Ten.)
The Sugar Bowl would pick first to replace No. 1 LSU and select the league’s runner up: Tennessee or Georgia.
The Fiesta Bowl would pick second to replace No. 2 Missouri and select 11-1 Kansas.
The Orange Bowl has first pick after the No. 1 and 2 replacements are chosen and would select 11-1 West Virginia to face the ACC champ (Boston College/Virginia Tech).
The Fiesta Bowl would pick next and select 10-2 Arizona State, which would be eligible even with a loss to USC, to face Kansas. (No empty seats for that one.)
The Sugar Bowl would pick last and select Virginia Tech if it’s the ACC runner up or Illinois if VaTech wins the ACC.
***Pac-10 bowls
If a second team jumps into the BCS, the Pac-10 would have seven slots to fill but only five eligible teams if, as I expect, UCLA loses its last two and Arizona loses to ASU.
Can’t imagine that bowl execs affiliated with the Pac-10 would be very happy.
Rose: USC
Fiesta/BCS at-large: Arizona State
Holiday: Oregon
Sun: Cal (The Sun can invoke a no-repeat rule since No. 4 Oregon State played there last season, but is Cal a better choice? Add the Sun to the list of unhappy Pac-10-affiliated bowls.)
Emerald: Oregon State (If the Sun goes with OSU, the Emerald would want Cal)
Las Vegas: vacant
Armed Forces: vacant.
So is it safe to say that this is why Hansen can’t get the conference into a better bowl package? I.e, parity?
“Frankly, now that Oregon’s out, I’m not too excited by any of the possibilities. LSU-Kansas/Missouri/West Virginia? No thanks. And if LSU doesn’ make it? Double-ugh.”
Look, Oregon was SUPER-ONEDIMENSIONAl. What does everybody have against the Mountaineers?!?!?
Short of some nerve-wracking fumbles, they are America’s most exciting team to watch. I tuned in for Mizzou and Kansas’s games this weekend, and I don’t see the comprehensive explosiveness on both sides of the ball like WVU has.
LSU-WVU or OSU-WVU would be great title games. If the Mounties face one of the Big 12 schools, mark my words, they’ll slaughter ‘em.
Thanks for your doubt though! Keeps us motivated
Speaking as an Old Blue, I think Cal should do the honorable thing and decline any bowl invitation it receives this year. We need to do something dramatic to shake the lovable loser mindset that is so deeply entrenched.
I have nothing against lower tier bowls. I remember being thrilled when Bruce Snyder took Cal to the Copper Bowl way back when. Lower tier bowls are a great reward for teams on their way up or whose performance has exceeded their talent. But when a talented team underperforms as badly as Cal has this year, there should be no “reward”.
2 things:
1) To Nonplussed - Cal NEEDS a bowl game for several reasons. Money, of course. Also to get all the young guys an extra month of practice to build on 2008. Especially the WR’s and RB’s - they need as much practice as they can get for 08.
2) To the WVU fan - Oregon has just as much talent as WVU. What happened when Pat White got hurt against USF? They lost! What do ya know. Pretty much the same team running the same offense. Jon Stewart = Steve Slaton, Pat White = Dennis Dixon.
Good not great defense.
Go Bears!
Gobeers — Great point about the extra practice. I hadn’t thought of that. Despite my frustration with this season that alone is enough reason to root for a bowl berth.
As for the money, the second tier bowls are breakeven at best. The Emerald Bowl might be an exception for Cal because there would be no travel but generally only the BCS bowls are significant net paydays.
And Bowl money is shared among all conference members, after the participating schools recoup their expenses. If money is the issue, root for two Pac-10 teams to make the BCS. THe payday is about $11-14 MILLION for each team per game.
I’m yawning at this lame article.
This has been one of the most exciting football seasons in memory. I’m just seeing another joker that wants a boring season where all the “expected” teams (traditional powerhouses) pound on everyone else. This lets bozos like this guy pick who should get to play for a national championship.
I for one enjoy watching things get decided ON THE FIELD. That is what is happening this year. Too bad for the talking heads. They’ve been proven wrong week after week. The teams have shown the real pretenders have been the media all along.
If Hawaii defeats Boise State and Washington to finish the season, they deserve one of the BCS slots. How can anyone argue with an undefeated season? In a year in which App State defeated Michigan and Louisiana Monroe took Alabama to the woodshed, let’s recognize the emerging parity in college football.
EXCUSE ME, Gobeers - in the WVU-USF game, capable back-up QB Jarrett Brown had them close to tying before a silly turnover. Oregon loses Dixon early, and never recover, going on to lose 34-24. Big difference.
Dixon and White are equally valuable, but let’s look at what makes REALLY the Mountaineers title-worthy (cause lots of teams have star QBs):
Backfield: Slaton, Noel Devine - combined 1400 yards already this year
Swing man: Darius Reynaud, close to 600 receiving yards and 10 TD
Fullback: Owen Schmitt averaging 4.7 a carry…THE FULLBACK.
And defense: Hard hitting secondary (just ask Cincy’s receivers), and a future NFL D-line of Berry, Dykes, and Dingle.
Not to mention the best kicker in the nation, Pat McAfee.
Please…..as Football Lover said, let’s let it be decided on the field. But given any team I could have on said field, it would be the Mountaineers.
Actually, the payday for a second BCS team isn’t as big as for the first. It’s only $4.5 million last time I checked.
WVU fan-coach Rod is a great . Devine, (living with Dieon Sanders), from Fla ST and LSU. Gets Reynard from LSU’s backyard. His ties with Louisiana are great the time he spent at Tulane. He should have been the head coach. Everybody wanted him, except for that idiot AD. Boy did he make a mistake. He may not still be at Tulane.But if he had , they would have had some good years. GO COACH RICH-we are proud of you.
Would love to see him come back to New Orleans with his football team. He still has several thousand friends. LSU would still have the advantage, but not as much if coach Rich comes to town.
I have to disagree with the writer. I was in no way excited about seeing Oregon in the BCS Champ bowl. I always want to see a new, yet worthy, team in the national spotlight. This year, I think that team is WVU. They represent a conference that has long been over looked despite the recent success (5 for 5 in bowl games last year alone). Further, this team has been exciting to watch (Slaton, White, Devine, Reynauld, and Schmidt… amazing). I feel that given the chance at the national title this team would put up all the stops to win. And given the fact that they have so many offensive weapons makes me believe this could be some exciting football. Let’s face it, when is the next time a team like WVU will be this loaded! They know it too… Therefore, I say give them a shot.
LSU is another worthy team because that defense is just incredible. I, nor anyone else (except maybe the Razorbacks), can deny them a spot in a championship game.
Simply put, a championship game with WVU and LSU is much more appealing than Ohio State and Florida (what a bust…)
Football Fan,
I disagree. In the past 5 out of 6 game LSU defense has been sub-par. Dorsey is hurt after that Auburn game. Tyson Jackson is hurt. DBs are not playing good. Look out of sink. LSU offensive line have not been playing up to their potential. Old Miss had 3 sacks. They have been giving up too many the lst 6 games. They may have peaked too early. Ave. 10 pen. for 144 yards. Too much to over come against a good team.
Now the distraction if Myles takes the Michigan job. This week looks like a sure upset. Or maybe in the SEC championship game. Sure the Seniors may play good, but what about the other players, who in the back of their minds think they won’t have their coach next year.
Remembeer these are still kids, 17, 18 19 and 20 year olds. I played football and I know what they are going through, in their minds.
Mike The Tiger,
I take the season as a whole with LSU. But, fine, I will agree. I’m not married to any of these teams. I would like to see WVU play that game, though. Let them play Missouri for the title. That would be a great match up as well. I would like to get your thoughts on who should be in New Orleans.
No question West Virginia and LSU would be great game.
Maybe the greatest game of all time if both play like the are capable of playing. Speed and more Speed.
Will set , if both teams make the game of the century.
I like like high scoring games. They both match each other at all the skilled positions.
Would be wonderfull. But, something tells me it won’t happen. I don’t think WVU will lose another game. But somehow I am not sure about Ark. With Nutt having his last game and all the talk about Myles, (Michigan person),might leave LSU. This may be the game that knocks LSU out.
Then what is left. It may be OHIO St against WVU. Ok will beat Mizzo for the Big 12. Ok will have 2 losses. WVU will wipe Ohio St off the floor.
Where’s Boise State. After they beat Hawaii they should get into a BCS Bowl Game.
I’ll be the first to admit it, I don’t have a good reason. But I just don’t like WVU. Something about the attitude of the players or fans gets under my skin. I really haven’t watched a lot of their games as a result, and when I have I end up rooting against them. Oregon, on the other hand, I have a deep respect for. Their program seems like a class act, and the community up there supports the team to a phenomenal degree for the Pacific Northwest. Despite the disadvantage of playing in Louisiana, I wanted to see UO vs. LSU, Pac-10 vs. SEC, Belotti vs. Miles. Alas, it shall not come to pass. If it ends up as WVU vs. LSU, I probably won’t watch.
…Of course, on second thought my position may be biased by the fact I consider UO to be Cal’s best win in a season that has subsequently imploded. It’s the same reason I now like Tennessee, I guess, since there’s been so little to like lately. …Sigh… I’d attend the Emerald Bowl of course, but I kinda wanted to get away.
Of all the 1 loss teams, can’t understand the love affair with LSU. Let’s face it - the SEC is down this year, and its top tier teams like FL and LSU still maintain the cupcake non conference scheme. Meanwhile, we have newcomers like Missouri and Kansas playing their FB in decades. I would personally love an LSU loss, which puts them in an at large position at best, and a Kansas - West Virginia final. Earlier comment re: WVU-Oregon injury issues was right on - Ducks were 1 foot away from being undefeated until the AZ game, where Dixon’s injury played a HUGE part.
In the first place Mr. Wilner, you have assumed that UCLA will lose its last 2 games and that Oregon may lose to UCLA.
The Sugar Bowl will either select LSU (if they lose in the SECCG) or UGA. They will have little desire to select a UT team which will likely have 4 losses.
The issue of the Boise State/Hawaii in the BCS is thorny. I think the parity which is evidently emerging in CFB, is a good thing. But, those teams cannot play with a championship calibre SEC team like LSU or UGA. They simply do not have the personnel (note: only 2 teams have been in the top 10 in recruiting for each of the last 5 years: USC & UGA) or the experience against high quality opposition. Boise played a great game last year and beat OK. But OK had only played 1 good team all year. SEC teams play 5 or 6.
The Sugar Bowl will NEVER select a Boise/Hawaii to play against a SEC juggernaut unless they are forced to. Boise played UGA a few years ago and the outcome was nearly fatal for poor Jared Zabranski.
Rose: USC will slaughter overrated OSU (another team that doesn’t play anybody).
Fiesta: AZ St. vs Big 12 Champion (will be a very good game which I’m looking forward to).
Orange: ACC Champion vs Big 12 #2 or #3
Sugar: UGA vs Illinois (NOBODY wants to face UGA now)
BCSCG: LSU vs WVU (Slaton and White can’t take that kind of punishment)
The Twist may be that Orange & Sugar make a deal to swap Big 12 #2 for UGA, It makes sense from a ticket sales perspective.
What makes you think Oregon will place 3rd in the Pac 10? They will need to beat UCLA and OSU to make 3rd. I’ll put my money on OSU.
Hey College Football Fans,
The biggest game of the year will be played this Friday night in Honolulu. 10-1 Boise State vs 10-0 Hawaii. Should be quite a game. I’m hoping BSU can whip the Rainbows & get into a BCS Bowl, but I’m also realistic. The Broncos will have their hands full trying to beat Hawaii especially in Honolulu.
Go Broncos
Sorry John, it’s not going to work that way. 1) Arizona will beat Arizona State, just like the Wildcats do every time it means the most to Arizona State. And, 2) The Fiesta Bowl would never pick Arizona State because the local hospitality industry would revolt. The Fiesta Bowl will take two out of town schools — period.
Why is it that no one can realize that kansas is a viable national title contender?? It will be amazing to see all the commentators who are suddenly behind the jayhawks after they win over missouri on saturday. It will not be a blow out but kansas seems to find a way to win.
To Big Ed,
Until Kansas beats a respectable team, they should not even be ranked. I put them in the same class as Hawaii.
Who has Hawaii played.
Lets look at one common opponent, Louisiana Tech.
LSU Killed them and so did Cal. Hawaii was happy to get out with a 1 point victory. Kansas has not defeated
a team with less than 4 losses.The north Big 12 is very weak, and they played the 3 bottom feeders in the south part of the conference. They have yet to play Mizzo, Texas or Oklahoma.
I am not sasying they are a bad team. They have accomplished what they had to with the schedule they played. Same has Hawaii.
Not every team has the schedule of the Irish. If they did we can realy crown a national champ.
Mike the Tiger - LSU/West Virginia might be the greatest game of all time? Sure, and I might “come out of retirement” and win the Cy Young Award next year.
There are no potential match-ups that will come close to being the greatest of all time because there are no all-time great teams this year. Give me the USC-Ohio State matchups of the early ’70s or the Miami-Alabama Sugar Bowl, Penn State-Miami Fiesta Bowl, Miami-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl, Miami-Nebraska Orange Bowl (I am not a Miami fan but they have played in some great games), Notre Dame-Alabama Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame-Texas Cotton Bowl, USC-Texas Rose Bowl, etc, etc. LSU-West Virginia hardly gets my blood warm, let alone boiling.
Devil fan
I was speaking in terms of speed . Several first rounders at running back and wide-receiver.
I see your point. They were some great games.
I went to the Notre Dame-Bama in the Sugar. That long 3rd down catch for the Irish was stunning when time running out . I do remember that cotton bowl comeback in the snow with Joe and Notre Dame. That was the best!
Me too, I could not stand Miami’s cocky attitude.
Stating the obvious… this year proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that football needs a playoff.
alot of people talk how great georgia is in sec but what about tenn? they have played 6 teams ranked in top 16 and all but bama top 7 at some point in the season. they killed georgia and arent scared to schedule the hard games like opening at cal. they will probably still play in sec championship and might even win over a beat up lsu defense. they should at least be in the sugar bowl even if they loose to lsu.
Excuse me Dennis,
While I can’t disagree with you putting your money on OSU, IF (and that’s a bif IF) Oregon beats UCLA and OSU, they won’t finish third, they will win the Pac-10 championship.
Jon-
now, if oregon state beats Oregon and finishes 3rd in the PAC. do you think that the holiday bowl would choose the ducks anyway? if the BCS takes 2 pac10 teams, and OSU finishes 3rd they HAVE to go, but i can easily see the ducks chosen over them..
Dennis-
i completely agree, i do not know what to expect from the ducks, with such an effortless arizona game, i dont know what kind of team they have w/o dixon. for all you know, theyve spent all week changint their offense for leaf. we will have to wait and see saturday. GO BEAVS!
Margin of victory is the most useless measuring stick to the aptitude of a college football team. All that matters is whether they win or lose. Teams can be good one week, then horrible the next. Poor Stanford… Going into hypotheticals on whether Hawaii can compete in other conferences is mute, because they haven’t been given an oppurtunity. It’s not like UH can just join the SEC or the Big 12 on a whim. They are playing the cards that are dealt, and if they win with a 10-2 off suit then who cares?
I can’t wait to see how Wilner spins this fiasco of a day for LSU. My bet is he praises Georgia for the title game. His love of the SEC knows no bounds. (I will laugh if the ACC takes more than 2 of the 4 matchups against the SEC this weekend though.)
Are they a very good team? Yes. But no way do they deserve a BCS title shot now that they have not one but two losses to unranked teams. Yes they have played a very difficult schedule. Kudos. But losing to Arkansas at home is far worse than losing to Illinois at home.
How can anyone argue for Georgia to play in the BCS title game when they won’t even qualify for the SEC conference championship game? If Tennessee beats Kentucky tomorrow, they win the tie-breaker with Georgia and will represent the SEC East vs. LSU.
For the people who are sniping at Kansas’s record, the Jayhawks have done one thing no other contender except Ohio State can match - win four conference games on the road. I think you have to give them credit for winning at Manhattan, Stillwater, Boulder and College Station.
Bronco Boss: Can you hear us celebrating our WAC title in paradise!? LOL,…now go home and feed the cows ya loud mouth. You earned this in-your-face! It’s party time on the islands!!!
Aloha,
Enjoy your celebration. It’s about time Hawaii won something. I can take the in-my-face comments. BSU had some key injuries down the stretch that hurt, but Hawaii out-played the Broncos & deserved to win. Congrats! BSU drops to 10-2 and had another pretty successful year. I guess it’s nice for some other team to win the WAC after 6 straight years for Boise. What a day two great teams, Boise State & LSU, go down. This shows that anything can happen in college football this year.
Please do not pair Boise State with LSU. Neither are GREAT teams. Especially not Boise,…
Aloha,
You wouldn’t know a great team if you saw one! Also, I’m getting a kick out of you pretending to be an Hawaii fan. Pretty “dorkey” when you say “can you hear US celebrating in paradise”. Like your on the island! ha ha. You probably got thrown out of the Keyes Club last night for making an a** of yourself. I can tell you’re some SJSU football fan reject who jumped on Hawaii’s bandwagon so you could get in my face. You probably couldn’t even find Honolulu on a map! Anyway, whatever turns you on. Have a nice time in paradise, or where ever you really are. Don’t let a dumpster lid hit you.
Jealousy is an ugly thing Bronco@ss. Have a Coke and a smile. Your team LOST! BTW, no wonder everyone on this blog hates you,…
Aloha,
Who are you really? I know you just made up the name Aloha so you could rip me. You must be one of the many disappointed SJSU fans. Must have been tough to wait 11 weeks to find a way to get on me. I don’t think everyone on this blog hates me-just the losers like yourself. It sounds like you’ve already had too much coke in your day. BTW, You’re an IDIOT.