Pac-10 picks of the week: Cal’s a home dog? Hmmmmmmm
I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve been surprised by the point spread of a Pac-10 game this season.
But it happened this morning when I checked the Merc and saw that Cal was an underdog at home tonight against Washington State.
Maybe I shouldn’t have been surprised given how poorly Cal has played in Haas (five conference losses). But it seems to me that, at worst, this should have been a pick ‘em.
The Bears beat WSU in Pullman, after all, and they’ve shown no signs of quitting on the season. Plus, Ryan Anderson is a major matchup problem for the Cougs.
There’s no significant motivational edge: Both teams believe they must win to help their case for the NCAAs (Cal to get in, WSU to improve its seed).
For weeks, I’ve been counting this as a Cal win when gaming out the Bears’ season — partly because of what happened in Pullman and partly for no good reason.
I could see the Cougs being favored by one or two points. But 3.5 … that’s like a football team being favored by 7.5. That’s a big half-point.
Saturday: 2-3
Season: 37-30-1
WASHINGTON (plus-12) AT STANFORD: The matchup favors Stanford significantly with two Lopezes against one Brockman. But I can’t help but wonder if the Cardinal is headed for a struggle (ie: narrow victory) after the victory over Cal and with the Huskies far below in the standings. Gimme: Washington.
WASHINGTON STATE (minus-3.5) AT CAL: WSU had no response for Ryan Anderson (27 pts) or Patrick Christopher (16) in the first meeting, and Jamal Boykin did some damage, too (12), in DeVon Hardin’s absence. Obviously, Cal’s smaller lineup hurt WSU, so expect to see it again. Gimme: Cal.
UCLA (minus-8) AT ARIZONA STATE: Bruins blasted the Sun Devils in Pauley, which makes them prone to a letdown. But I think UCLA is built to handle teams like ASU and Washington State. The Bruins can play that halfcourt style, and they do it with much better players. Gimme: UCLA.
USC (plus-5) AT ARIZONA: Very tough call here. Cats have struggled at home and Trojans have played well on the road, and they beat Arizona in the Galen Center. But the Cats have some momentum after that win at WSU, and you have to wonder about the fatigue issue for USC. (Note: Daniel Hackett could play.) Gimme: Arizona.
Hmm… don’t know about Stanford-Washington. I’m predicting Stanford by 17-20 points. Stanford presents Washington with unique matchup problems: aside from Appleby, Washington’s guards are good penetrators but not a threat from 3-point range. With the middle clogged by the twins, Stanford can just have Fred Washington or Landry Fields deny the 3-ball to Appleby, and Washington’s offense is basically neutralized (there’s only so much Brockman can do against two 7-footers). I think it would have to be a major letdown for Stanford to not cover.
OK, well, that’s why I don’t bet sports. Regardless of where the final score ends up (it’s Stanford by 5 with five minutes to go), Wilner called it and I was *totally* wrong.
I think the team has officially quit on Ben Braun.
Wilner, do you think Braun is coming back?
The day after I say…”Gimme ‘dem Cougs!!” The “team,” Cal Bears, didn’t need to quit on Braun…Wazzu played and shot the way we have more been noted for and played defense the same way…unlike the Pullman game…
Now, we do the same thing to the “Stanfords” on Saturday afternoon!!
GO COUGS!!