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College Sports Hotline

With Jon Wilner

Stanford vs. Marquette: Prediction time

Four reasons the Cardinal rolls Marquette on Saturday in the second round while wondering how many times CBS will show Stanford football coach Jim Harbaugh in the stands.

(In case you’re just returning to the States from the Russian Far East, Harbaugh’s brother-in-law is Marquette Coach Tom Crean.

(I’m guessing we’ll see 14 Harbaugh close-ups in the two-hour broadcast, plus a pregame and/or halftime piece on the Harbaugh/Crean family story.

(Harbaugh’s father, Jack, is a Marquette athletic official, as well. So we’ll get at least five close-ups of Jack, guaranteed.

(It’s great pub for Stanford football, for sure.

(And it has terrific potential to become a tired, enough-already, make-them-stop, please-show-us-the-game, I-SAID-THE-GAME!!!! story, for those who aren’t tired of it already. ((Count me among the weary.))

(And now, back to the game …)

Stanford will roll reason No. 4: Robin Lopez.

He’s one of the most dominant defensive players in the country and is rapidly improving on the offensive end (to the point that, from what I’m hearing, there’s now a better than 50-50 chance he’ll enter the NBA Draft this spring).

R Lopez’s ability to score in more ways than follow-ups and dunks/lay-ups adds a dimension to the Cardinal offense that Marquette doesn’t have the capability to stop.

The Eagles basically play with one big man: 6-foot-10 center Ousmane Barro. Their “power forward” is Lazar Hayward, who’s 6-6 and spends a lot of time on the perimeter.

Which brings us to …

Stanford will roll reason No. 3: Marquette’s interior defense.

Consider Marquette’s results against Big East teams with frontlines similar in size and talent to Stanford’s.

OK, there really aren’t any (nobody in the country has two 7-footers with their athleticism). But UConn might come closest with 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet, 6-9 Stanley Robinson and 6-7 Jeff Adrien (in the Lawrence Hill role).

Result: The Huskies won by 16 and their frontcourt had 40 points and 18 rebounds.

More context: Georgetown’s Roy Hibbert, who like Brook Lopez is one of the nation’s most skilled big men, had 20 points and six rebounds against the Eagles.

Syracuse’s gifted 6-11 freshman/future first-rounder Donte Green had 21 points.

And Louisville’s 6-11 forward/center David Padgett had 17 (in 21 minutes).

Clearly, the Eagles have trouble against elite big men, and that’s trouble against Stanford.

Stanford will roll reason No. 2: Its wing defenders.

Marquette plays with three guards capable of scoring 20 or 25 points in a given game. But the Cardinal has plenty of experience against some of the top wings/combo guards in the country (O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless and James Harden, to name three).

Fred Washington and Anthony Goods should hold their own against Wes Matthews Jr. and Jerel McNeal.

Even if Mitch Johnson has trouble with Dominic James — and he probably will — James isn’t going to beat the Cardinal by himself.

(Yes, Darren Collison beat Stanford by himself in the Pac-10 finals, but Marquette doesn’t play defense like UCLA.)

The most important matchup defensively for Stanford might be Hayward, the combo forward with a sweet perimter stroke. When he’s scoring, Marquette’s tough to beat in the same way Stanford’s tough to beat when Hill’s hot.

The Cardinal has several options for Hayward: It could put Hill or Taj Finger on him, but that would leave only one Lopez on the court.

If Stanford wants to maximize its Lopez time, then either Brook or Robin will have to chase Hawward.

R Lopez is the better defender and has draw comparable assignments throughout the season. But if he’s on the perimeter, he’s not protecting the basket against Marquette’s penetration.

(That matchup would also leave B Lopez alone in the lane, vulnerable to foul trouble, and he’s the twin Stanford must have on the court at the end of a close game.)

My guess is that Stanford sends a handful of defenders at Hayward to see what works, and the second half matchup might depend on how things are going offensively.

If, for instance, Hill or Goods has a hot hand, then it’s not as important to have the Lopezes on the court together.

Stanford will roll reason No. 1: The Big East approach.

The Cardinal is a gritty, grind-it-out, effective-but-not-pretty-to-watch team … a Big East kind of team.

If the game gets rough, even nasty, Stanford will be perfectly at home. It can dig out loose balls, take charges, offensive rebound and score garbage baskets with the best of them.

And don’t overlook the fact that for three games, Stanford has gone basket-for-basket, bump-for-bump, forearm shiver-for-forearm shiver with the best Big East team of them all:

UCLA.

The Hotline calls its shot: Stanford 71, Marquette 60.

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4 Responses to “Stanford vs. Marquette: Prediction time”

  1. Nice analysis, hope you’re right. Didn’t know that Jack Harbaugh is now at Marquette athletics. I believe that Jack was also an assistant football coach at Stanford in the early 1980s. Yet another twist to the story of which JW is weary…

  2. Jon,

    It’s going to be a lot closer than you predict. How many turnovers do you think Stanford will commit, 20, 25? How many easy lay-ups and three’s will Marquette make? What if Marquette decides to press, how do we break the press? Barro is better than UCLA’s Mbah A Moute. Marquette also has a 6′9 freshman who can leap about 50 inches. It will be a close game all the way to the end, possibly even an overtime game, and Stanford doesn’t play well in overtime.

  3. Jon, I hope you’ll show this note to your tech guys at the Merc. As of right now, a bit after 9:30 a.m. Saturday California time, this blog item is the only thing on the Merc website about the Stanford-Marquette game. Not a single story, column, not even a sidebar matchup analysis or box with game time and TV information. And I mean nowhere — not the main sports page, the college sports page, or the little Stanford section of the college page.

    Either nobody wrote anything — which I find hard to believe — or the tech guys screwed up and wasted all your effort, at least as far as readers outside the Merc delivery area are concerned. In an age when newspapers are supposedly betting on the web as their future, it’s a big screwup, and it’s far from the first time it’s happened.

    I know none of this is your fault, and I know the blog is not really the right forum to address this. But I’m hoping you can bring it to the attention of the appropriate person. I LIKE the Merc’s Stanford coverage, and I think it’s a damn shame when it’s not available.

  4. Hi Harold –

    Check again, when I call up the Merc’s College page online I see a Stanford/Marquette Match-up breakdown, the plus/minus sidebar, a Kawakami column comparing this Cardinal team to teams from the recent past and articles on the Stanford women’s team. There’s also a lot of bracket breakdowns.

    I get the print edition as well and only see a couple of things missing - mainly a profile of the Marquette guard, Dominic James by Darren Sabreda.

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