The Warriors’ new-era debut vs. Cleveland: A viewer’s guide
Nice planning by me. Glorious planning.
I’m headed to Monterey for the weekend–a quickee get-away planned for a nice little while and locked into credit-card plastic as soon I knew that my services wouldn’t be needed to write about the 49ers and/or Raiders playing in the conference championship games.
Who knew anything else big could be coming down the pike for the Bay Area this weekend? Not me. Not my vacation planner. Nice job, VP!
So I’ll be several hundred miles away from Oracle Arena on Saturday when Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson & Co. lead the Warriors against LeBron James’ team.
I’m always honest with you… I had to explain (to myself, also) why I won’t be at the most anticipated regular-season Warrior game in a long time.
I’ll tune in from the Inn at Spanish Bay, if the game’s on TV there. I hope so. Might order some clam chowder. A sourdough roll. Won’t be writing, but I’ll still be watching closely. Very, very closely.
Here’s what I’ll be looking for, knowing it’s early, knowing the new guys will be nervous, the hold-over guys will be amped up, the coach and point guard will be giddy, and the crowd will be desperate for excitement:
1) How’s the defense?
Why were Mike Dunleavy, Ike Diogu and Troy Murphy such bad fits on the Warriors–or on any team that, you know, wants to actually win basketball games instead of just have nice guys around to smile at the coach?
There were a lot of reasons. Mostly, it was their defense. More importantly, it was the certainty, after watching them for any lengths of time, that none of them would EVER be a decent defensive player.
Obviously, I haven’t watched Harrington and Jackson as much as I’ve watched Dunleavy, Diogu and Murphy. I’ve watched each of them probably a half-dozen times on TV and in person. I can safely say they’re both better defenders than any of the old Warrior trio.
But how much better? I’m not sure. You don’t really know until you watch a guy on every possession, in every game, from week to week to week… I mean, I think Indiana and some NBA observers who should know better still don’t understand how lousy Murphy and Dunleavy are.
You had to watch closely to see Murphy quietly move away from the penetrator near the rim every time and know how much that cost the Warriors…
You had to pay attention to see that opponents went at Dunleavy constantly, repeatedly almost mechanically on the defensive side–if it was a key play, give it to the guy Dunleavy’s guarding…
You had to get laser-focused to realize that the lousiness of all three, including Diogu, forced Nelson to play zone defense, and you had to understand that playing predominant zone defense is a give-up in the NBA–think of all those wide-open three-pointers the Warriors have given up, that’s ZONE…
You had to think about what was going on in Davis’ mind when there was a lay-up line behind him to the Warrior basket whenever Dunleavy and Murphy were in the game, and how that ate at the Warriors’ toughest player…
You had to look closely to see all that stuff. Some people who looked closely still refuse to believe it, I know. But oh well.
Will Nelson start playing man-to-man with Harrington and Jackson out there? I think Matt Barnes can play man, I think Biedrins would be pretty good in man, I know Monta Ellis would be excellent in man.
I want to see if there’s more action, more movement and fewer wide-open shots, starting Saturday.
I also want to see if Mickael Pietrus is healthy enough to defend James and if he gets a lot more help with Harrington and Jackson on the floor than he got before he arrived.
2) Is there more movement and aggressiveness on offense?
In and out, side to side… the ball should be popping around the floor and I’m guessing that’s the way the Warriors will play it.
Shouldn’t just be Davis forced to beat his man, and another man, then a third man coming to help, and Davis running into trouble and dribbling it into a turnover. That was the old Warriors.
I’d guess 16 shots for Harrington, 15 shots for Davis, 14 shots for Jackson and 12 shots for Ellis… A nice even spread, with the points a little higher for each guy than their shot total.
It’d be even better for the Warriors if all this movement and all these threats get Biedrins’ shot total up–he has been very quiet on offense the past month or so.
3) How happy does Baron look?
I can guess: Extremely happy. He has guys who can run with him, who will dig out loose balls (maybe) and who will force defenses to move and offenses to shoot a lower percentage.
Baron has Nelson’s love and has had it from training camp. Now Davis has teammates he can love, too.
Let me guess: 14 assists, 3 steals for Davis against the Cavs.
4) Can Sarunas Jasikevicius hit some shots and play any defense?
As Davis’ new back up and potential future Nellie favorite, Jaski will have to do the first part and that second part, who knows.
You’ve got to figure he’ll be better than Keith McLeod, however.
5) Isn’t it time to use Patrick O’Bryant as a back-up to Biedrins? OOPS: THE WARRIORS SENT HIM BACK TO THE NBDL ABOUT 30 SECONDS AFTER I FINISHED THIS. NEVER MIND.
OK, nobody wants to see POB match up against Cleveland’s Zydrunas Ilgauskus. But he should be able to play against other back-ups or fake centers. Shouldn’t he?
6) What are Barnes and Kelenna Azubuike’s roles now?
Back-up at both forward spots (for Barnes) and back-up at both wing spots (for Azubuike), I’d guess, but maybe a lot fewer minutes. Which is good for the Warriors.
As Nelson said again and again the last few weeks, when you’re counting on Barnes to score 20+ a night, you’re asking for some trouble.
Of course, I’m only asking for FSN Bay Area on the Monterey telly Saturday night. Make it so.
You’ll be “several hundred miles away from the Oracle Arena” . . . and in Monterey? You need to get your odometer checked. Either that, or your vacation planner actually has you in Monterrey, Mexico.
Hey Tim:
Indeed the Warrior’s game will be on FSN here on the Peninsula, per usual. I don’t know if it will be in your room out at Spanish Bay though.
I’m so pumped for tomorrow night’s game.
Guy Lee
Im just glad that we got rid of some players that weren’t contributing and some money that was going to cost the team. I am anxious to see what the new guys can do. I am more excited about Harrington, he sure can do what Murphy can’t do which slash and play in the paint, also has an outside game thats comparable to Murphy’s or even better. Jackson’s defense is much better than Dunleavy’s and can score, also has that toughness that Dunleavy doesnt have. I guess they had to make the trade more attractive, Warriors threw in Diogu. Let’s see what happens…Go Warriors
While I hope the new additions (and subtractions) help the Warriors on the court, my question centers off of it. For a guy that seems to find his way into so much trouble in Indiana (Jackson), what should we expect now that he will reside in Oakland?
Good points as usual Tim, however there is one thing that confuses me. You seem to think Monta Ellis is “excellent” as a defender and he sure seems good to me although defense is a hard thing to gauge for non-experts except for the obvious bad defenders like Murphy and Dunleavy. But I remember reading somewhere that Don Nelson thinks Monta is a liability on defense because his skinny frame makes him vulnerable to post-ups by bigger guards. He even said that he is forced to go to a zone when Monta is in the game to lessen the impact. I have to side with Nellie on this one of course, but I’d like to hear your response.
Glad you’re down here in our neck of the woods. You must have got a great deal on the room at SB. Nobody visits PB 3 weeks before the AT&T. You’ll have the hotel all to yourself.
I expect to see better defense tonight… not much else. With 2 of 5 starters new, it could be chaos on offense. Thankfully, the Cavs played a late game in Denver last night so they’ll be tired.
Should be a win for the Ws unless King James lights it up.
Enjoy the wine tonight… and our foggy Saturday morning.
So - vacation consists of sitting in a hotel room and watching a regular season b-ball game?
All work and no play may make Tim a dull boy…
My Fearless Prediction: Ws average 115 from here on out and win 40.
I’m hoping for 42 wins, that may be enough for the 8th slot in the West.
Now …. let’s swap Foyle for Magliore, and take it the rest of the way. Contracts dumped, mission accomplished.
OH NO!!! B. Davis is out for today’s game, thus ruining a perfect welcome moment for the new Pacers
The loss does not mean anything. Wait til the new guys learn Nellie’s system and can spread the floor better.
The only thing that occured to me is that we have so many “nice” pieces, and not enought playing time for everybody… all this without BD and JRich. And matchups at C and PF looked a little lame, since we’re just not super big inside.
We’re a much better team than last week at this time… and we’ll win a few more this year. Playoffs in 2008 when JRich is at full strength (trade for a true big man?). Monta still is soooooo impressive for a 21 year old.
It’s true, doesn’t mean too much, but did show two things that were fairly predictable; this can be a monster offense very difficult for other teams to match up against, and if the Warriors don’t get some big defensive stoppers, they will give up a lot of 20 point leads this season. PLEASE Melvin Ely is soooo reasonable at $2.4 million this year (prorated), his contract expires at the end of the year and he’s getting no playing time with the front court heavy Bobcats. Not the be all fix all, but a big enough, young enough, fast enough (and cheap enought) defensive forward to help out at a glaring weakness that will be exploited time and time again, especially in the forward heavy west. Plus gotta give love to Fresno State y’know?
Cheers!
Man… Tim, you complain about not having the Warriors on TV? Imagine my predicament as a Bay Arean currently living in the Philippines! I RARELY get to see the Warriors play. (In my two years here, I’ve only seen FOUR telecasts!) NBA TV should broadcast more Warriors games so I can have my fix of the Dunleavy-less Warriors! Go Nellie!
So, you liked that defense on Saturday? An improvement over Murphy and Dunleavy? You see Harrington as banging with any power forwards down low on D? Don’t mind Jackson talking to the refs (complaining about a non-call) while his guy blows by him? Think a 20-point lead should give a home team some comfort?
Peoples’ dislike for Dun, in particular, colors their analysis of his game. You’re in that camp, Tim. He is not a good man defender on a weak defensive team (where so many play out of position and so few block out on the weak side); but Dun keyed the zone defense here (Nellie called him his best defender, technically), and there was just no solidity on the defensive end Saturday, especially after the Cavs started to tighten up their own D late in the third quarter. Result: Poof! There goes a huge lead — because, not only couldn’t these guys score after the Cavs tightened the screws, they couldn’t stop the Cavs at all.
Blame it on newness. Blame it on legs. Blame it on Davis’s absence. Blame it on anything you want; I’ve got a drawerful of excuses for you. But the fact remains: crunch time is death time for the Warriors on defense. It wouldn’t have been so bad had it been the Spurs on the road, but Cleveland at home? Standing room crowd — loving the team to death? And, Tim, didn’t you pick the Warriors to WIN this game BEFORE they traded for these terrific, athletic defenders? Well, I’d say maybe basketball prediction is not your forte, but I see the Saints and the Pats didn’t fare so well yesterday, either. Who do you have in the NHL?
So, this Warrior team will be faster — much faster — and that’s good. They’ve also got quicker hands — also a big plus. But let’s wait a few games — and give the Dun-trashing a rest — until we see whether these guys can play defense as well as you predict. The ARE a fun group, but let’s not anoint them just yet, OK? The near-term schedule is pretty favorable right now, so if these guys can meld into a unit, we’ll know pretty soon.