Re-thinking the Warriors’ playoff chances, more on Nelson’s longevity and other stray notes
I must admit: Recent bizarre events have me wondering about my early and constant declarations that the Warriors will not, cannot and shall not win enough games to get the eighth seed in the West playoffs.
Actually, it’s not the Warriors–it’s those other wobbly Western teams ahead of the Warriors that have me… slightly… wavering. Slightly.
The Warriors recently lost six in a row. They’re 7-25 on the road. They have a two-game winning streak thanks to an incredibly flat Detroit performance and the absence of Carmelo Anthony from Denver’s line-up last night.
And yet. The Warriors are mathematically and–unbelievably–logically still sort of in this race due to the thorough awfulness of Denver, Minnesota, New Orleans, Sacramento and the Clippers.
Including the Warriors, two of those six teams will make the playoffs–won’t deserve to, but will make the playoffs.
“It’s like the plague–the eighth spot,” Don Nelson said after Wednesday’s victory. “Everybody’s avoiding it. Well, we’d like it.”
Here’s the deal: All of my calculations ruling the Warriors out of the playoff hunt were based on the assumption that eight Western teams will win 42 games or more–which has almost always been the case in recent years.
The Warriors, as I have typed, have almost zero shot at 42-40 this season–they’re at 28-35 now, so they’d need to go 14-5 down the stretch to get to 42 wins, and that’s not happening.
But, with Baron Davis and Jason Richardson healthy finally and Stephen Jackson playing tremendously, the Warriors have a shot at 11-8. Maybe a 30-percent shot at 11-8, but a shot nonetheless.
That gets them to 39-43.
I don’t think they’ll play that well, given their very tough home schedule (Spurs, Mavericks twice, Utah, Suns)… still, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and say they finish 39-43.
I’ve taken a look at the schedules for the other five “contenders,” and I can’t believe I’m typing this, but 39-43 might get a tie for the eighth spot. Heck, 39-43 might earn the spot outright.
Nelson ruled them out in his mind and sort of in his post-game talk last week in Chicago. I agreed with him then, very much so.
But nobody has pulled away. Everybody’s lumped in the same spot. They all stink.
“Going back to the road trip–how long was the losing streak? Six?” Nelson said. ”Who would ever think we’d come back from that and we’d still be in the hunt? But here we are. We look up and we’re still in it.”
A team-by-team breakdown, with guesses about the final records if the team does OK or if it falls apart down the stretch (nobody projects to a strong finish, though I’m tilting this, for our purposes, towards the Warriors just to get a look-see):
Team Record home/away left projected if OK/if bad
*Denver 29-30 9/14 40-42/ 38-44
*Clippers 29-31 10/13 39-43/ 36-46
* Sacrmto 28-32 11/11 40-42/ 37-45
*NOK 28-33 10/11 39-43/ 36-46
*Minn 27-33 10/12 38-44/ 35-47
*GSW 28-35 10/9 39-43/ 36-46
Chart summary: If the Warriors play well, and if a couple teams play OK and a couple teams collapse (and at max, only other team plays well), the Warriors have a shot at this.
39-43 could get them in for a raucous first-round meeting with Dallas, who should get to about 67-15 and might have a weird time with their old coach.
Ugly. But this is the ugliest West race in along time, so why not get the Warriors involved?
–Things to remember: The Warriors have the fewest remaining games (four fewer than Denver and the Clippers), which is good and bad. The Warriors have fewer chances to lose, but the ’W’ column is all important so more chances for other teams to get a ‘W’ are bad for the Warriors.
The Clippers have the toughest remaining schedule–13 road games plus a road record almost as bad as the Warriors.
Denver has 14 remaining road games, but the Nuggets are by far the best road team (13-14 so far) among this motley crew. Denver’s only 16-16 at home.
Friday’s home game against the Clippers is “a double game,” according to Nelson or maybe even more. A victory would tie the season series and bring the Warriors within 1.5 games of last spot.
A loss would push the Warriors three games behind the Clippers with 18 to go, knock them five games down in the loss column, give the Clips the tie-breaker and burn up a valuable remaining Warrior home game.
(They’d need to beat Utah, San Antonio or Phoenix to make up for this one, which I awarded the Warriors to get them to 39-43.)
Yep, a loss would just about do it.
So it’s basically this one game. My wavering will last until Friday… or the Warriors will win that and I’ll waver into April.
* I wrote a column this morning about Nelson’s indeterminate future with the Warriors, though I definitely believe he’ll be back.
He’s 66. He has been worn down by some of these losses. He’s not sure if this is going to blend right, though he thinks it will. He ought to think about it.
I wanted to talk to assistant Larry Riley for this piece but couldn’t get to him until after the game and after the column was filed. Still, I did talk to him late Wednesday, so I wanted to get some of what he said onto this posting.
“I’m not worried about that,” Riley said when I asked if he was concerned that Nelson might not want to come back next season.
“The losses are tough. But they’re always tough–if he was 30 years younger, they’d still be tough. That’s just this business.
“I can tell you this: He was as energetic and on top of things this morning at shoot-around as he was in November. And he’ll be just as energetic and on top of things at tomorrow’s practice.”
* I asked Riley about Jackson, who has delighted Nelson with his versatility and toughness.
The Warriors’ staff is considering using Jackson in a Scottie Pippen-type role–just go send him at the best offensive player, whoever he is.
On Wednesday, after Allen Iverson torched the Warriors in the first half, Jackson took the AI assignment and, with help, kept him in check. On other nights, Riley said Jackson could match up against a tough two-guard, great small forward (he might’ve drawn Anthony on Wednesday) or thinnish scoring power forward.
“We haven’t had that kind of guy around here–he’s good to have,” Riley said with nice understatement.
Nelson has been praising Jackson effusively for several days also as a point-forward and precision passer.
My notable thought: Geez, they never say these things about Mickael Pietrus, who was supposed to do some of these things and hasn’t. Pietrus will be gone after this season, no question.
And Mike Dunleavy was supposed to do some of these things, too.
Jackson has been trouble for his previous teams, but right now he’s a dream combo of a Pietrus and Dunleavy, only actually productive.
* Nelson and his staff are not quite as thrilled with Al Harrington–mostly because he hasn’t been a reliable rebounder.
(Funny, they sort of jokingly ding Jackson for that, too: “He’s a unique player,” Nelson said. “He does everything well except rebound.”)
Riley sounded determined about two things: The Warriors will be a better defensive team than they’ve been and they’ll rebound much better than they did in the early-going of this season.
OK, wow, that was a lot of typing. See what happens when I spend about eight hours around the Warriors… after many weeks of being away on other assignments?
Wow. Did you just admit…nah. Okay, let me read this article one more time or I might actually think you’ve admitted the possibility of making a mistake and that would be a landmark event. I wouldn’t want to make a mistake in my interpretation of your post.
No Tim, stay the course. Warriors need to get Kevin Durant or Oden. It is our only chance for a future. Convince Nelson that they need to play POB. We need an All-Star on this team.
Who do you think is the odd man out next year?
If the Warriors get a big man next year, someone from the current team has to go. Sounds like Pietrus is gone no matter what, but they’d still need to move one more player if they get a legitimate big man.
If they get a rebounding power forward, Harrington moves to small forward, and then they’d have Jackson, Richardson and Ellis battling for time between the 2 and 3 spots.
They won’t get rid of Ellis. Based on Tim’s article, it sounds like Nelson loves Jackson, so I don’t think he’d be going anywhere.
I like Richardson, but it looks like he’s the guy that would get traded.
Of course, the Warriors have talked about landing a big man for years without much success, so maybe they’re all safe next year.
Lets go W’s!! Playoff push. I think we can do it.
Lord have mercy like a flash of (en)lightening from the great bball court in the sky TK’s *finally* applying the same level of scrutiny to the competition as to the dubs. Of course I hate to say I told you so (no I don’t, I sort of relish it) but isn’t that what I wrote a couple of weeks back?
JP, if the dubs do make the playoffs maybe we should get TK to tap the PA at the Oracle with a public apology (something that sheds light on the difference between probabilities and actualities would be nice).
I don’t think they’ll really pull it off either, but just that they can; that alone is an amazing change in the situation. Games in March that mean something - OH MY! And I like watching them when they think they can, much more fun than when you know they can’t. It’s the kind of energy they can learn from, and build on.
Nathan, we’d be better off dreaming of a Frankenstein Combo-Clone ™ of Rick Mahorn, Charles Oakley and Dennis Rodman (there’s got to be some ex-Balco peeps in need of work and getting genetic material from NBA players usually isn’t too difficult as long as you have the best bait) than this “stay the course so we can get Oden or Durant” tripe. How many grade schoolers are posting this drivel? Haven’t taken a stats class yet? NO ONE has a good chance (better than 50/50) to get Oden or Durant, they haven’t even declared for the draft. Probably will, but still, not even Boston or Memphis has a good chance at picking them up.
The way to get better in the NBA is to get better; better chemistry, better talent, better coaches - just about any chance you have to improve take it. Good teams are built over time. But what almost never happens is a bad team becomes a good team just because they add one player (especially one rookie).
Tom, Pietrus is gone for sure (unless the dubs get him hella cheap, and even then I’d rather keep Azubuike really). JR would be a candidate but you’ve got to wonder how smart that would be, given his fire and passion, and how well he and BD play together. If he keeps having lots of 20/10 games, that’ll be a tough sell to the fan base. Of course that would also make him a more valuable trade commodity as well.
Cheers!
Sorry, fellas. They ain’t making it. The sooner we all accept that, the better off we will be.
Better off by accepting defeat? Uhmmm, maybe the US Army, not the GS Dubs though. Hey if it works for you in your life, go right ahead, just don’t include “me” in your “we”.
Cheers!
Thanks for your interesting insights. I don’t get the SJM since I live in Oakland and get the SF Chron (really tried to stay faithful to the Oak Tribune, but). Anyway, love your articles, love your optimism (even if we don’t make the playoffs I think we’ve done more than we would otherwise have expected) and love to hear those insights from the coaching staff. I’ve liked MP but he is just so inconsistent and if I had to choose between Steven Jackson and MP, there would be no contest. SJ has the 3-point shot, the defensive capability, the passing skills and he is a much more consistent scorer.