Talking Points

You shouldn’t go totally playoff crazy if you’re a Warriors fan. You can go half-crazy, however. Maybe even three-quarters crazy knowing that the Warriors are closer to a playoff berth than they’ve been since the first Clinton Administration.

That’s well within your rights after last night’s 99-98 Baron Davis savior-job at Seattle. Definitely within the rights of any set of fans who haven’t tasted a playoff berth in 12+ seasons.

Last night the Warriors won a game that they never would’ve a few weeks ago (I’ll detail why later in the post), which translates to: They’re inching close-close-close to grabbing the inside track for the No. 8 playoff spot in the Western Conference with 14 games left to play.

They’re not quite there yet. But soon… if they get a few more tough victories… it’s very possible that by the end of this month, the Warriors will be the lead dog in the hunt for No. 8.

Now, of course, the mucking around for the last two West spots is well-documented. Basically, if you give Denver the nod for the seventh spot and the Lakers the sixth…

* The eighth spot’s a race to 39 victories and the Warriors are tracking right towards 37, 38 or 39, along with the Clippers,  Kings and New Orleans.

* It’ll take one or two more surprise Warrior victories, but they got one last night, and any team that gets one has a shot at two or three more in the final 14.

Here’s the deal: Davis’ jumper in Seattle means that the GSWs only need to go 7-7 (instead of 8-6) to finish 39-43, and that’s an immense difference, given the Warriors’ very difficult remaining schedule.

That’s a full game gained on the Clippers, NOK, Sacramento and (dying) Minnesota and that, again, is immense.

Now who am I to talk, anyway, after I wrote the Warriors off weeks ago? Wrote ‘em off on Feb. 2 in the good ol’ Mercury News sports page, and kept writing ‘em off on this blog, again and again and again.

Back on Feb. 2, the Warriors were 21-25. I wrote then that the winner of the West’s eighth spot usually rings up 43 or 44 victories, which meant that the Warriors would’ve needed a 22-14 finish to earn the berth.

I said that the mega-deal with Indy made them much better, but it was likely that they’d go 16-20 down the stretch and finish 37-45.

Guess what: The Warriors are 11-11 since I wrote that. With their remaining schedule, 37-45 is very possible. They’d have to finish 11-3 to get to 43 victories. That’s not happening.

The Warriors’ likely-record part of the guess was semi-correct. The rest… the talk about the eighth spot requiring 43 or 44 victories? TOTALLY WRONG.

Well, oops. The West No. 8 seed is going to win 37 games at minimum and 40 or 41 max. That was my error. This is the worst race for the bottom of the West playoffs since 1997, when the Clippers made it at 36-46. My bad.

I never guessed the Clippers, Hornets and Kings (and even Nuggets and Lakers) would be so awful, all at the same time, but here we are.

I also wrote a sharp blog item at the All-Star Break saying that the Warriors weren’t going to make the playoffs. At that point, they were 25-29.

Since then, they’re 7-7.

Now they need to go 7-7 to finish 39-43 and put a victory total on the board that I am not sure the Clippers, NOK or Sacramento can match. (I know Minnesota’s theoretically still in it, but I can’t bring myself to seriously consider the T-Wolves, who could flatten out this week.)

It’s out there. It’s real. It’ll be difficult. But I’m serious. It’s there.

* Here’s why the Warriors could be considered the favorites for the eighth spot.

– They’ve grabbed the momentum, and the playoff race always favors mo’. Another surprise victory (say, at Utah Tuesday or at the Lakers next Sunday) would demoralize the other chasers and further adrenalize the Nellies.

– They’ve got Don Nelson, who is probably the best game-coach of the remaining No. 8-seed contenders (Mike Dunleavy Sr., Eric Musselman, Byron Scott, Randy Wittman.)

This isn’t a spot to get into Warrior team stats, but last year’s FG%: 43.3. This year’s FG%: 45.9.

Last year’s points-per-game: 98.5. This year’s PPG: 104.9.

Last years blocked-shots-per-game: 4.3. This year’s BSPG: 6.0 (tops in the NBA).

Those are huge, huge improvements by NBA standards or anybody’s standards, though a lot of it are byproducts of some easy stuff, such as: Playing Andris Biedrins! And Monta Ellis! Oh sorry.

– The Indiana mega-trade made the GSWs a lot better. A LOT BETTER.

Took some time, and it all gets wacky if Davis is out, but the Warriors are a decent team when you plug in Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington, and subtract Dunleavy and Murphy. (And erasing Dunleavy and Murphy’s salaries? That’s a super-bonus. But you knew that.)

In fact, the Warriors are probably the eighth-best team in the West right now, because of that trade.

Big point: That doesn’t mean they’ll get the eighth spot in the playoffs, due to the difficult remaning schedule (their own fault for not eating up the early easy part of the sked).

But Warrior fans should be pleased thinking that this is probably a developing playoff-quality team, locked up for a few years, even if it finishes out of the playoffs and a many games under .500 this April.

– They’ve finally started to win road games. Losing almost all of them is why I said they were done last month. Playoff races are usually determined by teams pulling out wins on the road–while their opponents drop the road games. 

The win last night gave the Warriors consecutive road victories for only the second time this year–the first time came at Boston/at Orlando in late-December.

The win also lifted the Warriors’ road record to 8-26, which is still lousy but creeping closer to the Clippers, T-Wolves and Hornets’ slightly-less-awful road records.

– They’ve finally started winning on the end of back-to-backs. They started the season 1-15 (if my math is correct) on the back-end of BTBs.

But with victories at Detroit (after Washington), at home against Dallas (after Portland) and last night (after Minnesota), the Warriors are now 3-0 in on the tired side. Amazing.

(The Warriors have two more road games as the final part of BTBs this season, including the final game in Portland April 18. The Warriors need to go into that game thinking it’s a win.)

– They’ve finally won both sides of a back-to-back. The Warriors had back-to-back games 16 previous times this season, and didn’t win both sides in any.

Friday night at home against Minnesota and last night in Seattle was the Warriors’ 17th set of BTB games.

(They have three more BTB sets coming.)

I credit Jackson and Harrington for a lot of this BTB improvement–they compete in a way that the ex-Warriors didn’t and couldn’t.

– The Warriors are 6-0 with their preferred starting lineup of Davis, Jason Richardson, Jackson, Harrington and Andris Biedrins all healthy.

That’s a good stat. That’s an important stat. But it’s also predicated on things the Warriors can’t control–such as Davis’ creaky knee and Jackson’s sore toe–so I won’t be citing it much.

– The Warriors have been able to win the last few games playing Davis much more lightly than in the early part of the season.

Last two games: Davis 23 minutes vs. Minnesota; 25 minutes vs. Seattle.

It’s an automatic with him these days–if he gets a series of 38-minute games, he’s bound to be headed to some injury trouble. He’s a 26-to-35-minute a game now, and 35 is pushing it.

But Nelson has Monta Ellis to give him longer minutes at the point now and it’s a triple-plus: Ellis is playing better, Davis is fresher in the minutes he does play and you can put them both on the floor at the end of games and it’s tough on the opponent.

– The Warriors have the tie-breaker advantage against the Hornets, which could be GIGANTIC, as is detailed later in the post.

– Biedrins has bothered two past Warrior-killers recently: First Elton Brand was a shadow of himself, then Kevin Garnett looked like he just didn’t want to shoot against Biedrins.

With two games coming against Tim Duncan, one against Amare Stoudemire, two against Pau Gasol and two against Carlos Boozer (including Tuesday in Utah)–cumulatively half of the Warriors’ remaining games–that’s a key point for the Warriors.

So the Warriors can steal one or two against the Suns, Spurs and Jazz. They are probably going to need to… Because…

* Here’s why the Warriors might not be the favorites for the eighth spot:

– Their remaining schedule is notable for its sparsity of easy games. I figure there are only four: Host Wash March 23, host Memphis April 1, at Memphis April 6, host Minnesota April 15.

There are five toss-up games: Host San Antonio March 26, host Phoenix March 29, host Utah April 9, host Dallas April 17 and at Portland April 18.

There are five brutal games: At Utah on Tuesday, at the Lakers March 25, at Houston April 4, at San Antonio April 7, at Sacramento April 13.  

If they go 4-0 in the easy ones (never can assume that), go 3-2 in the toss-ups (tough to do) and maybe pick off one of the brutal ones, then they’re 40-42.

Much more likely that they’ll go 3-1 in the easy, 2-3 in the toss-ups (unless they just go nuclear at home vs. the Big Guys) and 1-4 in the toughies, which brings them to 38-44.

* The Lakers already have 34 victories, Denver has 33, and they both have many more games left to play than the Warriors. Unless there’s more collapsing, the 6 and 7 spots are far reaches for the Warriors.

* In comparison, New Orleans has more easy games and fewer brutal games left than the Warriors.

I count five or six (or maybe even seven, if you’re stretching it) easy ones for NOK, which is at 29 victories now and has played two fewer games than the GSWs.

So if the Hornets, who have 16 remaining, go 5-1 in their easy ones, and 5-5 in the others, they get to 39-43.

They just split a road back-to-back with New York (win) and Washington (loss), so they can win on the road if the situation is right.

(**OF COURSE, as typed above, the Warriors have the tie-breaker and would get the eighth spot if it’s a head-to-head tie with NOK. This looks like it has a great shot of coming into play.**)

* The Clippers, who have 30 wins, have four or five easy ones among their remaining 17 games. They also have eight brutal ones.

I’ve counted the Clips out for a while, and I’m still counting them out, though they could change that this week if they scramble out a couple road victories in New Jersey, Chicago and Milwaukee.

The Clips project to a 38-44 finish.

* Sacramento is at 29 wins with 16 left to play, and must win at Atlanta today Monday for me to put the Kings back into the picture.

That’d get them to 30 victories with 15 games left and would put them on a road winning streak, which really means something in this race.

After Monday in Atlanta today (which, again, they’d better win), Sacramento has five easy games left.

By the way, I’m counting the Warriors trip to Arco on April 13 as a easy one for the Kings and a brutal one for the Warriors. If the Warriors find a way to win this one, that could seal their playoff spot. That could be the game, folks, if the Warriors want in.

The Kings have four brutals and seven toss-ups left. If they go 4-1 in the easies, 1-3 in the brutals and 4-3 in the toss-ups, that’s a 39-43 finish.

Currently, the Warriors are 2-1 in the season series vs. the Kings, with that huge game coming up at Arco on April 13. 

OK, there it is, as broken down as Kevin Garnett’s spirit and as prolonged as CBS’ NCAA pre-game shows. But I put in the effort. I admitted my wrongs. I’ve dug up what I can.

Have I proven how serious we should be getting about this?