Warriors fans, wake up and smell the playoffs: What now?
OK, this column-writing, go-to-games, interview-people, take-flights-early-in-the-morning, write-some-more newspaper thing I happen to do occasionally and professionally is really messing with my ability to type on this blog.
Just coincidentally, this is also precisely a moment when Warrior followers might especially like to see extra Warriors blog-o-rama. I’m pretty sure of that.
So, I’m sorry for the relative slow-going here on the blog. I just got back home from Portland and I’ll try to do better starting now. Try being the operative word.
I couldn’t do much bloggery last night because I was writing for the paper from Portland and afterwards didn’t have internet access for a while and when I did I was busy booking hotel/flight for a six-day stay in Dallas starting tomorrow.
But I’m here now, hooked up and live, so before I dive into writing a column on Baron Davis’ redemption season, here are the subjects, real or exaggerated, that should occupy Warriorland as the Dallas series gears up to start Sunday:
* Late last night, Don Nelson said the team fulfilled his goal of making of the playoffs, and said he had a new goal for the playoffs. I asked, but he wouldn’t tell me what it was.
I think it’s to take one of the first two games in Dallas and make sure this thing goes five or six games.
Not a shocker–that’s always the playoff underdog’s goal to start a seven-game series.
But it takes on broader dimensions when you toss in Nelson’s history with the Mavs, the Warriors’ 6-1 recent mark against the Mavs, and the Mavs’ last series, when they went up 2-0 against the Heat, got nervous when the Heat turned it up, and fumbled away the NBA title.
Who knows what gremlins might pop up in Dallas’ head if things get tight against a Warrior team that should be playing at supreme levels of loose and goose?
I’m sure Nelson wants to see. I don’t think he believes he has the better team or that his coaching magic can even things up. But maybe the nerves set in if Davis, Jason Richardson and Stephen Jackson can steal one of two, and then get that Oracle crowd roaring for Games 3 and 4.
My prediction: Warriors slip in Game 1, but play out of their minds and win Game 2 in Dallas. (Then they lose Game 3, win Game 4 and it’s 2-2 head back to Dallas.)
* Which superstar plays like a superstar–Davis or Dirk Nowitzki?
That is a question that might be haunting the Mavericks a little right now. Nowitzki had a great, great season, but he’s never been dominant against the Warriors, not even the Mike Montgomery Warriors.
And Nowitzki really doesn’t seem to like playing against Stephen Jackson. Not at all.
Meanwhile, Davis is at a career pinnacle right now. He’ll always be gimpy, but he lives on confidence and strength, and all that has been flowing for him since he came back from knee surgery.
Plus, he has Monta Ellis to help him out defending dangerous Dallas point guards Jason Terry and Devin Harris.
My prediction: Dirk has never been great against the Warriors, in large part, because he has never had to be great against them. They were just the Warriors and maybe he can turn it on in the fourth quarter after a bad three quarters and so what if it doesn’t happen even then? Who really cared?
But now Nowitzki has to be good. People care. Now. This series. So I think he’ll mostly rise to the occasion.
I’ll guess Nowitzki snaps out of his Warrior funk and scores 40 at least twice, and gets one triple-double against the double- and triple-teaming Warriors. He’ll also stink up one or two games, which give the Warriors a couple victories.
Davis will be fine. But a good coach like Johnson could figure out a lot of ways to slow him down over the course of a long series. So I’m betting that Nowitzki is the bigger star in this series.
* Will Mark Cuban and Nellie get into a war of words?
My prediction: Yes, if the series goes longer than four games. Almost definitely.
They’ll try their best to be cordial in the early-going. But Nelson was shoved out by Cuban. Cuban doesn’t like being pinched for money by Nelson–and vice-versa.
Nelson hates hearing how Johnson took basically the same bunch of players, even minus Steve Nash, and went to the NBA Finals when Nelson always stalled out one or two rounds earlier.
Cuban hates hearing Nellie intimate that he never would’ve approved of letting Nash go to Phoenix as a free agent. There’s all sorts of other issues, too, between these two talented, ego-centric, fascinating, brilliant guys.
So Nellie and Avery made a point of socializing here last week. Maybe they won’t jab at each other (but maybe they will). Cuban and Nellie won’t be able to resist it.
* Will the Warriors hit the playoffs swaggering or will they get stage fright?
My prediction: Maybe against San Antonio or Houston, the Warriors would heave up a couple bricks, get bogged down, tense up, and suddenly be staring at a 0-3 deficit.
Not against Dallas. Dallas just is too nice for the Warriors’ style and the Warriors’ confidence.
Plus, any team with Davis and Jackson isn’t going to be nervous for too long.
* Will Erick Dampier slumber during these games or will he realize he could do some major damage against the small Warriors?
My prediction: I just don’t think Damp has it in him to reverse the usual Nellie hex on rock-handed big men. Nellie loves to play against those guys. He’ll force Johnson to pull Dampier and Diop off the court and go with Nowitzki at center.
* What do the Warriors do to counter Josh Howard?
My prediction: Hard to say. He’s my favorite Maverick because he does so many things to help a team win games. And when he scores, Dallas is almost unbeatable. I don’t know if the Warriors have the answer for this guy, unless it’s…
* Will Jason Richardson’s long wait for the playoffs turn into a spectacular playoff run?
He’s my Warrior wild-card, which tells you something about the depth of this team, because he used to be their Everything.
Now he’s the bonus scorer, the guy who rebounds, runs the floor, might score 12, might score 30 and when he scores 30, the Warriors usually win.
He’s Raja Bell. He’s Jerry Stackhouse/Howard. That’s a very different role, but still a huge one in the playoffs.
My prediction: Stackhouse/Howard outscore Richardson, keying a late-series surge by the Mavericks, who win this series in six games.
Could be all wrong. But I’m going to keep tying, no matter what, even as the 11th seeded sports columnist.
Mav hand picked GSW as their post season opponent by sitting all of their starters at their last game against each other.
Don’t think Cuban was doing Nellie a favor by sitting their starters, which means they believe they can handle GSW.
Let’s hope that Cuban was wrong.
In contrast to what Just says, I don’t believe Johnson’s sitting their players had anything to do with Dallas wanting to face the Warriors. Some say they were hoping the Lakers would lose, so the Dubs winning out would have meant a Lakers/Mavs series. Johnson says this was the plan regardless of the standings, which could be true. It could also be true that he didn’t want to stake his team’s cred on a single game, going all out and possibly losing, which would have been a bad way to go into the playoffs. He may have figured to just pass on that game and start fresh with a 7-game series where superior talent would be more likely to prevail over the long run.
Tim:
I reread your earlier post from March 8th about the Warriors playoff chances, and in hindsight it turned out to be an excellent analysis. This is what you wrote:
“Here’s the deal: All of my calculations ruling the Warriors out of the playoff hunt were based on the assumption that eight Western teams will win 42 games or more–which has almost always been the case in recent years.
The Warriors, as I have typed, have almost zero shot at 42-40 this season–they’re at 28-35 now, so they’d need to go 14-5 down the stretch to get to 42 wins, and that’s not happening.
But, with Baron Davis and Jason Richardson healthy finally and Stephen Jackson playing tremendously, the Warriors have a shot at 11-8. Maybe a 30-percent shot at 11-8, but a shot nonetheless.
That gets them to 39-43.
I don’t think they’ll play that well, given their very tough home schedule (Spurs, Mavericks twice, Utah, Suns)… still, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and say they finish 39-43.
I’ve taken a look at the schedules for the other five “contenders,” and I can’t believe I’m typing this, but 39-43 might get a tie”
As you see, you somewhat underestimated how good the Warriors could be, but your arithmetic was pretty good!
Good job as always Tim! I enjoy reading your stuff.
Yes of course the neutral analytical observer in me thinks Mavs in six is a good call, and may be a little generous to the dubs, at least at first glance. But, first of all, who cares about objectivity, I’m a bloody Warriors fan y’know?
And there are some other very good reasons to believe that Golden State will pull off the biggest upset since Denver over Seattle:
1. The Mavs were without doubt the better team over the season (one of the best seasons ever actually) but who was the better team over the last 20 games?
2. The Warriors have a very good answer for the Mavs best player; Jax has proven effective for several teams in several seasons against Nowitski, and that’s huge. Dirk’s an outside in shooter and if his outside shooting rhythm can be frustrated by a fast, long armed, annoying defender, well he’s not going to make up for it on the defensive end, that’s for sure.
3. The Mavs don’t have a very good answer for the Warriors best player; and who is that again anyhow? As this roster gels with Nelson’s flowing, passing, options oriented playing style, the shots (and assists) are pretty well distributed. JR, BD, Al, Jax, Monta (hell even Barnes and Pietrus) can drop 20 on a given night, no problem (and also get you 5-8 assists); that’s fast-paced offensive hydra that can create high speed matchup nightmares. Most would assume BD’s the man though - the will and the ego. Sorry just don’t see Terry or Harris stopping Baron much though.
4. Erick Dampier (and that’s their best center, but we won’t see him much because the Mavs will be forced to play small ball as TK writes, and we always like it when our style dictates the personnel on the floor).
5. Don Nelson, who certainly has his shortcomings but his storied ability to exploit mismatches could be huge, because there’s a number of interesting and odd looks the Warriors can throw at the Mavs to take advantage of the chinks in their armor.
OK I know but what about Josh Howard? Wish we had Varejao right now!! Or who knows, maybe Foyle steps up? Got to admit that’s likely to be a huge plus for Dallas.
So I’ll go with the dubs in six, because the Mavs are psychically frail, and once the shadow of doubt enters their dusty Texan hearts, the ediface will crumble. Split in TX BUT the energy in the Oracle prooves too much for Dallas to handle. 3-1 back to TX where the Mavs win BUT so what, Oaktown’s a tough ‘hood for sure, where the glorious GSW organization will celebrate it’s first playoff series victory in a long, long time. We’ll pass the curse of Webber off to Dallas, transmogrifying it into the curse of Dampier (who according to the basketball gods ought not to ever, ever get a champions’ ring, period).
Seriously, the Mavs are a very good team, just not very intimidating - you know the Suns, Spurs and Rockets aren’t scared of them. And neither are the Warriors.
Cheers!
Goodbye Oden and Durant, getting to the playoffs was much better than tanking out the season. What the heck were you thinking Tim?
After a shaky beginning, that trade with Indiana was the franchise changer. I never knew Stephen Jackson was so good. Also,who knew that Al Harrington as your PF was a liability, but he is fine as your center?
TANK TANKTANK!
It’s tough Tim. All that statistical analysis you did based on the Warriors performance prior to the last two months of the season out the window. Their horrible performance on the road and on back to backs, out the window! The past is not always the best evidence for predicting the future is it? You were wrong, wrong, wrong! Thanks for an entertaining blog, nonetheless.
Looking back at the last GS-Dallas game I’m a little worried about the fact that Avery sat his starters. One thing that I haven’t heard anybody mention is the fact that as much as Nellie knows the Mavs, the Mavs are beginning to really know the Warriors. Having to watch the Warriors on Dallas television showed me how much Avery was pulling in his “men in suits” during timeouts to talk about things that the Warriors were doing. Avery was prepping his players for the playoffs even then…and by not playing them he was saving their energy and not having to unveil anything that Dallas might do to slow us down. Unfortunately we had to throw out all our guns to get to the playoffs. I hope Nellie has a few more tricks up his sleeve, because I really do respect Avery as a coach and think he knows more than we give him credit for. However, in the end, I have to believe that the Warriors pull out at least 2-3 wins and I’m praying for a fourth. Wishing I was in Oakland, but representing hard in Dallas…Go Warriors!!!
PS - I really was looking forward to your take on finally making the playoffs. I really appreciate this blog and love reading it…especially if it’s about the Warriors, Giants or Niners. Not living in Warrior Nation anymore makes me all that more thankful for the world being a little smaller nowadays. Thanks for helping me stay connected!
I’m just really happy for Jim Barnett. They would’ve had to put that poor guy on suicide watch if the Warriors hadn’t made it this year.
The Warriors are on the verge of greatness. They have unusual intensity, desire, and unselfishness and the Mavs will not match them. The Ws will prevail in less than 7 games.
im guessing mavs in 6 although it will be a tough matchup.
i love the warriors and i think their offense is beyond excellent, but up against a seasoned and motivated playoff team? tough. Devin Harris will be swooping in from all sides while terry and nowtizski will be shooting jumpers with howard cleaning up their messes. Dallas has done this for several years and with much success.
Where are all my true Warrior fans man???
I might have a red mustache from drinking too much of the Warrior Kool Aid but we OWN Dallas. Jax and Big Al can keep Nowitski in the 20’s with their defense and where him out on offense.
Terry is streaky so the Baron negates his effect.
Their Wild Card is Howard who is pretty good but compare that to our triple Wild Card of Electric Ellis, Andres the “Brickwall” Biedrens, and Mr Warrior himself J-Richy Rich
Coaches and benches are pretty much a wash so with all things considered Im takin the W’s in 6 or 7 and all my tortured years of following the Mookies, Speedys, and Bimbos will finally payoff.
GOOOOOOO WAAAAARRRRRRRRRIORSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!
PS To C.Cohan
Thanks for finally opening up your pocket books now please please PLEASE change the Warriors uniforms back to yellow and blue of old ala’ Detroit Pistons
*wear
*Andris (My enthusiasm clouded my grammar.)
I will be at games two, three and six of this series. And then I’ll be ready for games two and three of the next series. What, you doubt the Warriors chances? Better check your pockets for bus fare becuase this bandwagon still have a few seats left and we’re riding into the second round. You don’t really think that annoying whinners like Cuban actually win in the end? Go Dubs!!!
I will be at games two, three and six of this series. And then I’ll be ready for games two and three of the next series. What, you doubt the Warriors chances? Better check your pockets for bus fare because this bandwagon still has a few seats left and we’re riding into the second round. You don’t really think that annoying whiners like Cuban actually win in the end? Go Dubs!!!
dang it’s gona be loud justpuked. tell us how it goes for us sitting at home.
i wasn’t even going to add my pennies but i’m over the happy to be here feeling and ready to rumble. i love the feeling we’re going into this series with. cue the music and slow motion shots, we’ve got an underdog story for the ages up in here. we own these mavs and if our generals (baron and jackson) keep it together we have a shot. assuming we aren’t as outclassed as the rest of the league thinks my main concern is the officiating and our more fiery players’ response to it. baron’s got his scowl on a hair trigger and jackson has a severe dislike for authority.
man, forget all that…GO DUBS, the new oakland nellieball will shock them all!!!