Does Pietrus have realistic non-Warriors options? I don’t think so, but his camp disagrees
I heard from a member of the Mickael Pietrus camp a few hours ago, and he calmly but firmly thwacked at my conclusion that his client inevitably will have to accept the facts and sign the Warriors’ $3.47M qualifying offer.
And he really protested my stance (blogged last night) that the Pietrus camp realizes it has zero realistic option and is resigned to accepting the one-year contract with the Warriors.
Pietrus’ agent said that there has been outside interest, that the Warriors have turned down sign-and-trade deals that would’ve helped them, and that there could still be interest out there in his client–Miami and Cleveland (and possibly Dallas) being the teams at the forefront of that situation, I believe.
Fine. All fair in debate, discussion and bloggery. He made some good points. I think I made some good points, too.
My one concession: I wrote about what Pietrus’ Camp is thinking, and I’m not in their heads. I’m not a mind-reader, except when I’m channeling my Inner Brian Sabean, of course.
But I do believe the Pietrus Camp knows where this is inevitably headed.
I know the MPC (Mickael Pietrus Camp) doesn’t like it, can’t admit it publicly, and may not want to admit it to themselves, and may yet believe they have a shot at hitting an inside straight on the river.
If they can do that–and trump the Warriors’ hard-ball play–more power to MPC.
Very slim chance of that. Since I’ve already typed it, I’ll say almost no chance of that. I’ll always bet against completing the inside straight on the river. That’s me. That’s this blog.
Bet the percentages, and the percentages tell me to stand by what I wrote and what I believe (except the MPC mind-reading part, and I’ll try to avoid that in the future).
Here’s why:
* It will take a massive market shift for Pietrus to land anything more than the Warriors’ $3.47M offer–because all the best deals (Jason Kapono, Darko Milicic, Gerald Wallace, etc.) have already been done.
Pietrus–like Matt Barnes (almost an identical situation, except Barnes is an unrestricted F/A)–is left on the empty side.
MPC can’t really argue this point. Reality is reality. The dollars were there, now they’re gone.
* The Warriors aren’t budging from $3.47M. Just are not. That’s their offer. They’re happy to have MPC take it. They’d be fine if he doesn’t. It’s a smart, tough play.
They know they’re winning this. They know it’s probably inevitable. When you plan ahead, and manage the salary cap, and read the market correctly, you usually know what’s inevitable. This is probably inevitable.
There’s no fiscal reason for the Warriors to budge and no talent reason to budge–until Pietrus’ people can come up with an offer sheet or a very good sign-and-trade proposal that doesn’t do harm to the Warriors’ long-term salary-cap status.
So far, MPC hasn’t done that. And if they haven’t by now–July 26–it’s very difficult to see how they’re going to do it later.
* It all gets tossed into wild limbo if the Warriors need Pietrus to be a side part of a Kevin Garnett mega-deal or cleared from the decks before or after a KG deal–as I stated in the earlier post, by the way.
I think this is MPC’s greatest hope, and that’s fine, too. Why not hold out for the best possible thing?
I just think that gets very, very complicated, and sign-and-trades aren’t easy to tie up into other mega-trades. Almost impossible, by my reckoning.
Miami is a possibility here for a KG/MP-side-swap, but again, it’s very, very difficult under salary-cap rules.
–So let’s re-cap…
The Pietrus Camp acknowledges that the market has tightened up and that the Warriors have handled Pietrus’ restricted free-agent status in a particularly frustrating manner (for them).
Other teams like MP, but they’re all over the cap. I suppose other teams have considered offering MP a deal that the Warriors would not match–many years, mid-level exception–but that one magic deal hasn’t materialized for MPC.
Maybe Cleveland or somebody gets desperate in late-August or early-September and throws a five-year, $40M deal to Pietrus. The Warriors probably wouldn’t match that, but does Cleveland really want to do that?
Cleveland has issues with Anderson Varejao (also unsigned as a restricted F/A), has a bunch of overpaid under-performers and Danny Ferry is not the most creative man in the whole NBA.
Does he want to get into luxury tax for MP? Hard to imagine.
So if there’s no big deal for MP, that’s not good for him.
And if the Warriors will match anything reasonable (under $4M a year), why should Cleveland or Miami bother even offering it to him? Easy answer: They won’t and haven’t.
It has to be a sign-and-trade, and the Warriors have to like what they get back, and the money has to be right, and if the other team hasn’t done it already, they probably don’t like MP enough to do all this stuff anyway.
Whew. Typed more than I wanted to on this. I don’t want to offend the MPC any more. They’re doing what NBA rules allow. They’re trying to find a market.
That’s their job. I appreciate that.
But in this case, it has to be the right market, it has to suit the Warriors’ purposes, and it has to happen fairly soon.
Maybe Pietrus won’t want to come in for $3.47M and then hit unrestricted F/A next year.
Maybe he’ll mope. But that’ll cause him harm, too–he’ll scare off teams–maybe more harm than he’d cause to the Warriors’ playoff efforts.
It has not set up well for Pietrus. Still, worst-case scenario: He gets paid many millions to play basketball on a fun team and then he becomes a free agent at a nice young age and goes where he wants for many more millions to a team that wants him.
That wouldn’t be so terrible, would it?
–If I’m right, Pietrus will eventually sign the Warriors’ $3.47M offer or something very similar to it. Won’t be happy to do it, but he’ll do it.
–If I’m wrong, Pietrus lands a bigger deal with another team or has a bigger offer matched by the Warriors.
I’m happy to let this play out. If I’m wrong, I’ll type about being wrong. Absolutely.
I promise the MPC and I promise you.
Hoopshype is reporting that the Warriors are in discussions with the cavs about a trade for Drew Gooden.
Hoopsworld dot com is also working on this story and their writer, who’s sources seem to usually have good info, is reporting that this would be for our $9.9 million TPE from the JRich trade. Gooden makes $6.4 million next year so he fits in the TPE.
My thoughts on this: It’s not a good deal for us as currently constructed. We give up our salary cap flexibility for a mediocre PF/C who would be a backup here. Yes, he provides bulk in a 7 game series with Utah or San Antonio, but during the regular season he would be taking minutes from Wright, slowing down Nellie ball, or “Foyle-ized” by Nelson. Maybe even all 3. To make things worse if I read his contract right, he still has 2 years left after this season at about 7 million per. Yikes.
I know he’s from here, and that he’d be a perfect fit for certain 7 game series, but hopefully we will steer clear of this move. This would be a McHale type move to acquire Gooden for our TPE straight up. On this idea, I stand with the “let the core grow together” gang. I’d rather throw Wright into the fire and see what he can do, then slog thru 3 years of Drew Gooden. We would also be doing them a favor cap & tax wise like Charlotte did for us. Why should we help them?
Now if they throw in Daniel Gibson…………hmmmmmm
Yo Dre I don’t care how long you’re sleeping on detox (just opens up markets, man, to us underpaid overproducers) BUT first of all, if you get props for the KG + BD worst case scenario I’m taking the credit for “Foylization” entering the English diction son, for reals.
Second Gooden for our trade exception? OK! And are you really arguing? I mean, that’s a big step up from where we’re at for no players and not so much cap space that we still can’t entertain the idea of resigning Monta, Andris, etc. That’s a step up without a big step up in $$$! Is Drew all that? No. But he can run with this team, he can score in the low post, rebound and play D -he’s kind of all round. Plus it’d be a homecoming, so be nice aw-ight?
Cheers!
Oh I would never dream of stealing something from you Mano without giving credit. That’s what liner notes are for. So in my liner notes:
Credit to Mano de Nada for coming up with the term “Foylization”. Yes, I am actually against getting Gooden for the TPE straight up. Gooden isn’t the fit you think he is my friend. He is much better suited to the EC style of sloggy basketball Cleveland plays than the specialized Warriors/Suns Nellie ball we play. He would only be able to run with us for 15-17 minutes per game and that would be off the bench. Would he help us in certain playoff matchups, yes. Is that worth 3 years and 20 million, no. It also increases the likelihood that we extend Monta OR Andris, NOT both. I’d rather have Barnes and Powell for a combined 5 million per year than Gooden. And oh yeah, if we acquire Gooden, Barnes is gone for sure. That’s not a step up. AT BEST, it’s a baby step back.
Also, it’s a’ight, not aw-ight.
I wouldn’t mind the Gooden deal if happened however I feel that if that does go down it would be a major mis-use of the trade exception. 10 million dollars is such a valuable asset with so many teams with salary cap issues. Don’t forget what seattle just got for theres and theres was only 6 million. Kurt Thomas and 2 first round picks, they have set the market and if we do not come up with a player like Camby, Brand, KG or some kind of significant difference maker (which I don’t believe Gooden is….) Then we would be getting screwed. As far as a sign an trade with Pietrus for Gooden then I’m all for it.
What about sending our trade exception to Portland for Jarrett Jack and Channing Frye? I know Portland has got to sign Aldridge and ROY to extensions next year, granted there owner will pony up the cash but all teams could use the extra money and I don’t see Channing Frye as being a big part of there future with the new twin towers down low. What do you guys think?
Tim seems to be overlooking the Mark Cuban revenge factor. Cuban would gladly pay to take away a player from Nelson. At worse, he could force the Warriors to spend more to keep Pietrus.
A’ight? Eh. Seems so conventional, so suit and tie, so East Coast y’know? I prefer to get hyphy-nated myself. Aw-ight? Aw jeah then! And nothing like the silent “j” to throw off all you phonetic spellers.
Oh jeah, b-ball. Well it’s not like Gooden’s my fav PF, but for $6-7 mil for two years, it seems doable (not 3 for $20 mil). Maybe I am getting desperate for some sort of real 4, I’ll be the first to admit, but it seems like he’d do enough well enough.
Maybe not. More Varejao rumors too; I have said since Sideshow was a bald head that you can force the Cavs into a tough choice by offering the MLE to Anderson. Still legit questions about whether his energy would translate to the higher rev dubs and also whether he wouldn’t just get Foyle-ized too (alternative hyphen version).
Cheers!
Petrius is not as important player as matt barnes. He is a decent player and nice guy but too small for SF and too poor a shooter for SG. The Lasame kid will show just as skilled D plus unbelievable shot blocker. Gooden is no better than Joe Smith who at 6 10 is the same type of player and could be had for less money. Neither of these guys will take you to a championship so forget their type of player. Warriors need Garnett or Pau Gasol who is a poor mans Garnett. He can play center, rebound, run the floor and score. Plus he is younger. No one else helps and all can be let go without missing them.
I agree. Gooden is a terrible fit for our team and i would take Powell and Barnes for less money than Gooden. Brandan Wright is like Chris Bosh with less offense, and you can teach him that. Sorry to the last guy, but I don’t think you watch much basketball. Pau Gasol does not run the floor at all, he is completely a halfcourt player. There are very, very few big men in the NBA who can effectively play our style and the prototype is Stoudemire.
If we can’t get KG. I think Gooden or Varejao are alot better than our current PF’s. B-Wright is our future but he won’t contribute right away weighing 215 lbs.
it will give the W’s height and muscle to play against the bigs in the west.
Drew Gooden is only guaranteed both years if the team reaches certain goals, and he reaches certain goals: Team must win 49 games; He must score 12+ and average 8+ rebounds. If any of those goals are not met, then the final year is a team-option.
As for “forcing” Cleveland to make a move…. Timmy got the Cap#’s wrong to begin with, second Dan Gilbert has already told Danny Ferry(Cavs GM) that he can exceed the salary cap by up to 17 million. He can sign Varejao to a 6 million contract, and they wont even be over the limit. 3rd: Varejao won’t accept no MLE..if he would, the Cavs would have signed him already. Memphis offered him 7.2 to start, and it was turned down. Dan Fegan (Varejao’s Agent) want’s 8-9 million per. THAT is why he isn’t signed.
As for Gooden going to GS…I doubt it… Phoenix wants him too, and they want to get rid of Shawn Marion. There’s a better chance that Phoenix cuts a deal with the Cavs since Steve Kerr and Danny Ferry are buddies.
One other thing… MPC is full of crap. Cleveland isn’t interested in him. Why would they pay him to play the same position Sasha plays….and Sasha plays it a heck of a lot better? Mark Cuban doesn’t want him either…he wants Sasha….already made two trade proposals for him.
As for Daniel Gibson…he isn’t going anywhere. Guaranteed! He just bought a new house on Lander road, and he is about to sign a 4 year extension.
As a Cavs fav… I’m rooting for the W’s to smack the tish out of the Spurs for the beating they put on us. Maybe the W’s & C’s can meet in the ‘08 finals.
Peace
Let him walk! Posey would be a much better option.
Why aren’t we going after Chuck Hayes, I think he would fit in perfectly.
Dre
why did you have to do Mano like that.
can’t you see that we are all just fans!
heard anything from Game lately?
his last joint sounded pretty good w/out you.
why’d you have to drop him for 50?
your heart should be on the west coast…
Gooden for the exception would just about kill the Garnett trade. One of our big advantages for obtaining Garnett is that the exception gives us the “opportunity” to take back the Wolves trash. So, I’d like to see something like the Gooden trade happen, since I’d then be able to stop worrying about the Ws shipping out Biedrens or Ellis. No?
Gooden would be a good option for two years. By that time Wright should be able to take over. Remember it takes big men longer to produce. We should not expect to see much of Wright over the next two years (ie Andris first few years)
Taking on Gooden sounds a lot like settling to me. You have to think there is a reason why GM’s have taken every opportunity to send him packin’. Ever heard the term “Good from afar but far from good”. Being married to Gooden for the next 2 to 3 years will only take our flexibility away by hampering the ability of Mulli to bring in someone who really could elevate the Warriors into the western conference elite. If Gooden can’t be that person, and he is not, then he will only serve to make the Warriors marginally better while hindering the development and chemistry of the younger talent. Mullin should keep trying to hit homeruns. This doesn’t even get to the track.
Looks like a deal is in-place. There’s another team in it too, but they’re being vague by not naming the other team (Watching the CAVS-TV show). I’m thinking that Cleveland should keep Gooden…he brings too much to the table to give-away for free.
As for the person who was wondering why he (Gooden) was always getting traded…look at his career profile…it isn’t as much as you prolly think. The Cavs are considering it because we have a younger, bigger Varejao. But I think we should keep both. Hopefully they don’t do this, but I think they already have a deal in-place from what I’m hearing.
LOL at response 17. That’s good stuff BriCha. I’ll put you in the Detox liner notes if I ever release it.
A’ight?
BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The KG to the Celtics trade may be back on. Here’s the shocking story from fox sports dot com:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/7073708
If these reports are accurate we have lost the KG sweepstakes and the “lets keep our core” faction has gotten their wish. Stay tuned for the latest.
Tim - now might the time for you to give up hopes in trading for KG. It looks like he’ll go to the Celts.
How is this team improved from last year? I hope Mully has a plan to use that $10 million trade exception. If they have the same roster as of today - they will have a tough time in the West. C’mon Nelly - make another trade to help you buddy Mully look good!
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