I agree with Nellie: New Orleans might be the Warriors’ most favorable likely 1st-round match-up
First, a nod to the E-man, Eric Gilmore of the CCTimes, who thoughtfully analyzed the Warriors’ potential playoff matchups today.
I’ve been thinking about this, too, but E got it down on paper and I’m glad he did. It put things together for me and sometimes I need that.
Can’t argue with any of his conclusions: Dallas, Phoenix and Houston look like good potential first-round match-ups for the Warriors; San Antonio, the Lakers and Utah do not.
But something Don Nelson said last week also got me thinking, and I put that with Gilmore’s thinking… and… I’m agreeing more and more with Nellie that New Orleans–now sitting at the 2 seed in the West–is the team the Warriors might be circling as their best, most likely option.
Nelson said he just thought the Warriors’ talent fits the Hornets’ talent, and while Chris Paul might be the element beyond the GSWs’ control, I can see where Don is going.
(Paul is as essential to New Orleans as Nowitzki was to Dallas–take away Paul like the Warriors took away Dirk… same conclusion? Maybe.)
Let’s stipulate: If they’re in the playoffs, the Warriors will be 6, 7 or 8, no higher. After losing to Phoenix last week, 7/8 looks by far the most likely for the Warriors.
Yes, with Denver there, there’s an outside shot the Warriors fall to 9, which, of course, would be out-of-playoffs, but I don’t think that’s happening. Could happen, but I’m not thinking it will.
So that means, if you’re doing this realistically, the Warriors are looking at a first-round meeting with the 1 or 2 seeds.
Now that could be any one of 6 teams. But I’m ruling out Phoenix and Utah because I’ve looked at their remaining schedules. I just don’t think either is going to get to 57 to 60 victories and I think that’s what it’ll take to finish 1-2.
That leaves Houston (22 in a row), the Lakers (Kobe/Gasol), San Antonio (titles) and New Orleans for the 1-2-3 spots, with Utah and Dallas as the most likely interlocurs.
Of those, I think the Warriors would’ve matched up best against Houston… before the craziness, before Yao went down, before every player on the roster started playing like Oscar Robertson… Now I am not so sure the Warriors want that team, ever.
(If you want to go beyond just a feeling about the Rockets, their defense is so good right now I don’t know if the Warriors want to go up against that. We’ll see more Friday night when Houston comes to town–of course, I’ll be in Anaheim for Stanford’s tournament run, but you know what I mean.)
The Lakers would be bad for the Warriors, too, and you know why. You can’t like Phil Jackson vs. Nellie, Kobe vs. anybody, Gasol, Odom and Bynum vs. anybodies.
The Warriors are 2-0 against the Spurs this year, and I don’t think that’s an awful match-up for Baron Davis & Co., but you don’t want the champions if you can help it.
Which, for me, leaves New Orleans. Tough team. Balanced team. Good at home, great on the road, good in conference, good out of conference.
But here’s what I think Nellie’s looking at with the Hornets:
* The Warriors’ toughest match-ups are almost always against teams that stop the break and play great half-court defense and force the Warriors into tough shots.
The Hornets are OK, but not one of the better ones at this.
The Hornets’ allow opponents to shoot 45.64%, which, again, isn’t bad (and is better than the Warriors), but isn’t one of the top-tier half FG defense teams. (Unlike Houston, San Antonio , Dallas and the Lakers.)
* David West is a tough guard for the Warriors, but not impossible like Carlos Boozer, Tim Duncan or Amare Stoudemire.
In fact, I think West is actually a pretty decent match-up for Stephen Jackson, assuming Jack is fully healthy by then. (He’s not healthy now.)
Double in fact, Jackson is the key guy–as he often is–against New Orleans. He played awful in the Warriors’ home loss Jan. 4 (so did Monta Ellis), then SJax played lights out in the Warriors’ big road victory over the Hornets on Jan. 30–maybe the Warriors’ game of the season.
* Sometimes when I’m searching for favorable match-ups for the Warriors, I look for point guard weakness, because we know what Baron can do to medicore ball-handlers and defenders.
But sometimes you try to find the biggest challenge, too. Baron loves playing Steve Nash, as has been pointed out often. He loves the competition and loves to show he’s better.
Paul is one of those guys, too. Now Paul can get the better of BD, and has a few times, including in Game 1 of this season.
But in a playoff series, when Baron is making a point, and he’s lined up against a smaller guy over a long period of time… I think that’s not a terrible match-up for the Warriors.
Oh, and Baron might not mind playing with supreme effort to eliminate Byron Scott. Just sorta tossing that one out there.
Another thing: Nellie could put Mickael Pietrus on Paul defensively, which quickens everything up because it’d send Ellis to a bigger guy (Mo Pete?) and probably Baron to Peja Stojakovic… again, this is the stuff Nellie lives for and other coaches hate.
* Plus, if Ellis is playing well, who on the Hornets can match him? Jannero Pargo? It might have to be Paul, and somebody else would have to get Baron, and that’s the kind of stuff Nellie loves.
Again, when Nellie has the smaller guys who have the advantage… that’s pure Nellie wonderland.
* Tyson Chandler has hurt the Warriors in the past–big-time defender, great rebounder–but he’s the kind of player Nelson enjoys out-manuevering over a long series.
* These teams play again in New Orleans on April 6. I’m thinking by then it might look very much like a potential precursor to a 2-7 or 1-8 first-round pairing.
I’m with Nellie. I think this could be very, very interesting.
It’s a little early to project first round opponents when the W’s aren’t guaranteed a spot in the West. I know the road to 50 wins is reachable (9-8 in the final 17) but an injury here or a shooting slump there and the W’s could, as Kenny Smith puts it, go fishing a lot earlier then we hope. There are too many variables involved to jump ahead of ourselves.
No one could predict that San Antonio has dropped from first after losing 4 in a row (losing to the Sixers??) so it just illustrates how volatile the seedings are. Who knows, maybe the W’s can get on a good streak, combined with Dallas and Phoenix stumbling and the W’s could end up in the 4th or 5th seed.
Hey Tim,
Your two for two man - two “non 9er” posts has =’d two great reads. If you just stay away from the 9ers I think your unreal cynicism and needless piling on just might go away. Great job.
You also cannot forget that Paul, Chandler and West have very little (no?) playoff experience. That is a real factor too. I don’t think they got better in their trade of Bobby Jax for Wells either.
Things are so darned close in the top 8 that I’m not sure it matters who they get in the first round. Just think about it, if Jackson had not been suspended and they’d gone 2-4 instead of 0-6 to start the season, and had they taken care of business and actually beaten Atlanta and Minnesota at home, they’d pretty much be in first place right now.
GS has beaten ALL of these teams. Ironically, I think their worst matchup might be Dallas or Utah. Between Houston, Phoenix, LA, San Antonio and New Orleans, I can live with any of them. And don’t forget Denver. Those two games GS plays against Denver are, in effect, playoff games.
And being the last living Golden State fan in Sacramento, I tell you, they damned well better take care of things tonight. Beno and Artest have been on fire, and the Kings can rebound. Big old danger signs on this one. If they lost to Atlanta at home, they can certainly lose to Sac on the road.
Sheesh, what’s this conference going to look like next year when Portland, GS/Denver and Sac all get lottery picks? We could very easily see 48+ wins not getting you into the playoffs. It’ll be so stupid if Denver wins the lottery. It’d also serve the NBA right.
Glad to see Tim’s blogging sober again.
thats alot of suppositions and “ifs”…and dont think that baron davis is any more competitive than Chris Paul, cuz hes not! secondly, alot of GS driving to the basket will be nullified by Tyson Chandler’s shotblocking abilities (ellis, davis, sjack)…all im saying is be careful of what you wish for…
think that their best matchup would be the Spurs, think time has finally caught up with them!
I’ll be happy with the playoffs, after that Egg we laid against the Kings - sheesh.. Although - call me crazy, but: bring on the Lakers. Why not? New Orleans would KILL us after all the bulletin board material Nellie has provided them, and you know what happens when the Warriors go in to a series that people think they should win? That’s right: they stink up the place. Same thing happens against the Hornets if we meet them in the playoffs. To be honest, I would rather lose to the Lakers in 7, than beat the hornets and lose to the Spurs in 4 in the second round.
I have to wholeheartedly disagree, we would NOT want to see NO in the playoffs. Chris Paul can slice up our comical defense. When help comes Tyson for the alley oop or kick out to Peja and Mo Pete. David West will get them inside points. And Nellie will be slow to react to momentum changes like he has been all year. He’s coaching like Monty as far as waiting 4-6 points too long to call a timeout to stop a run. Nellie’s handling of Bwright has me worried. He completely, 100% missed the boat on this kid. Once again without any options he puts him in, and guess what the team plays a crapload better when he plays. His +/- musta been extremely high until BD came in to shoot away our hopes. But the fact remains, eventually we will need a coach that values defense more. Our guys are truly terrible yet have very lil accountability. BWright is sitting on the bench waiting to rotate well, block some shots, and challenger others. Monta needs to commit to defense and we need a coach who will sit players that stand and swipe wildly at the ball while they’re getting blown by. I think we can turn on the defensive intensity for one series. But by round two we will lose focus as we did so many times this year in critical games.
So enough of this underdog crap or look at our record and where Nellie’s gotten us. This is a very very talented team. And we aren’t playing to our potential.
I agree New Orleans does look beatable but I like their chances against the Rockets a lot better.
I cant see Baron or Monta getting outplayed in the playoffs by Rafer Alston. Nothing against Rafer, he’s played well but talent should rule out in a playoff series.
T-Mac hasn’t been out of the first round, surprisingly, he’s not the reason the Houston went on that winning streak. That should worry the Rockets as he’s supposed to be their best player (other than Yao).
To BWright Believer: Your post includes two ridiculous, exaggerated assertions: “Our guys are truly terrible yet have very lil accountability,” and “So enough of this underdog crap or look at our record and where Nellie’s gotten us. This is a very very talented team.” These statements seem to contradict (not to mention the fact that the hyperbole is outrageous. A little perspective on your part would help the rest of us talk about the Warriors ina more accurate fashion.
Sorry Bucky when I said “truly terrible” I was referring to their defense. And there surely was a bunch of times that showed in the Kings game.