Sacramento 120, Warriors 105: This is what a 49-33 record (and the 8 seed) looks like
A lost opportunity for the Warriors? Yes, of course.
As expected, No. 9 Denver got drilled tonight in Detroit, so a Warriors’ victory in Sac tonight would’ve given the GSWs a nearly insurmountable (given the Nuggets’ remaining schedule) 2.5-game lead for the eighth spot.
But the Warriors did not win. Oh no siree, they did not. They played mediocre defense from the outset, very terrible defense in a run-away third quarter, got nothing from Monta Ellis, and did not have enough to make up for it against a decent Kings team.
It happens. I’m as tough on the Warriors as anybody (usually), but this kind of game on the road just sometimes happens, and it hasn’t happened that much to the Warriors this season.
Ellis was flat. Baron wasn’t great. Stephen Jackson got in foul trouble. Al Harrington wasn’t effective. It happens. The key: Don’t let it happen repeatedly, and that’s something this season’s Warriors team has avoided incredibly well. (OK, maybe if you add in Saturday’s lousy home victory over lousy Memphis, the Warriors have played two straight bad games–but it was a win. It counts.)
So they lost in Sac, Denver lost in Detroit, the Warriors are still 1.5 games up for the last playoff spot and still a big 2 games up in the Loss Column.
Not a big impact, really, for the playoff race, unless Warriors fans really had their hearts set and their minds locked on a 50-win season.
50 wins is still quite possible for the Warriors, but it was never likely. I’ve heard talk and talk and talk about how 9 teams in the West might end up with 50, and I’ve never bought it. Never.
Why? Because it’s almost impossible. It’s hard for five or six teams to keep playing .600 ball over a whole season. But eight or nine? Something will happen to prevent that.
Even in the Great West, games like this one–at Sac, with their fans revved up, with the Warriors not at their best–happen to good teams, and the Warriors aren’t a great team. Maybe not quite a very good team. Just a good team.
Until they get a big man Nelson can trust and a big man to stop lay-ups and score some easy buckets… they’re a good team, tracking towards 49 or 48 victories, and that’s not a minor feat in this tough conference.
By the way, the Nuggets play in Philly tomorrow. The Warriors still might be 2.5 games up if they take care of the Clips tomorrow.
Then the Warriors host Houston–who just had its 22-game win streak snapped by Boston–on Friday, go home-and-home with the Lakers on Sunday-Monday, host Portland and then finish with the final 11:
@Denver
host Dallas (on Warriors’ BTB)
@San Antonio
@Dallas (BTB)
@Memphis
@New Orleans
host Sac
host Denver (HUGE GAME, if GSWs win, I think it clinches 8th)
host Clippers
@Phoenix
host Seattle.
So it’s not easy. I see 8 more wins left on the Warriors’ schedule, which would be an 8-8 finish. Maybe it’s 7-9. Something like that.
8-8 would get the Warriors to 49-33, which is just fine. Very good, when you think back to the start of the season. About right.
I’ve wavered a bit on the Warriors’ expected win total this season–started with 44, moved it down during the 0-6 start, moved it back up by November, thought about a 50-win season not too long ago…
But again: This is what a 49-win season looks like. I’d guess a victory in LA tomorrow, but either way, it still feels like 49-33.
I think 49 wins get the Warriors into the playoffs, either as the 7 or 8 seed, depending on Dallas (who lost tonight to drop to 44-24) and Phoenix (who won to get to 45-22).
I think Denver most optimistically can get to 48-34 but I really believe 46 or 45 victories are much more likely for a team that plays that horribly on the road.
It’s really up to the Nuggets–they either start winning on the road and scare the Warriors, starting tomorrow in Philly… or Denver keeps losing, fades towards a 45-37 finish, and then the Warriors really don’t need to worry much.
If the Nuggets don’t get it going on the road, all the GSWs have to do is beat Denver one time in the remaining two games, and it’s over.
—Now a quick rundown of some particulars about tonight’s game:
* Don’t want to pick on Monta Ellis, but I suspect Don Nelson pulled him early in the first quarter, then later kept him on the bench for the entire 4th quarter, mostly because of his terrible defense.
The 3-for-9 shooting didn’t help, but maybe that’s part of it–Monta wasn’t doing anything on offense, so he totally zoned out on defense.
Kevin Martin’s a tough guard for Monta… and he didn’t come close to doing it well. Didn’t get back on defense, didn’t do much when he did, lost his man… it was bad.
I know Monta had some personal issues before this game, but these defensive problems are not new.
He played 28 minutes, was a -17 in the plus/minus and it looked worse than that.
* But the poor perimeter defense wasn’t restricted to Ellis.
Baron Davis rarely gets publicly called to task for poor defense, but he was awful tonight. Didn’t move his feet, didn’t run back, didn’t rotate, didn’t go after loose balls–maybe he was pacing himself for the back-to-back tomorrow in LA, but tonight was the game he should’ve been geared up to play.
Baron was a stunning -27 tonight in 39 minutes. That might be his worst plus/minus as a Warrior, certainly his worst in the last two seasons.
* Did you see how much better the Warriors played defense when both Baron and Monta were out to start the fourth quarter? C.J. Watson and Kelenna Azubuike moved, deflected passes, rotated, stayed in front of penetrators (most of the time)… you know, good defense stuff.
The Warriors are going to have to live with Ellis’ defensive lapses for now. And they probably can expect Baron to play harder down the stretch and in the playoffs.
But for now, it has to be a major worry. They usually get a ton out of those guys on offense… But I’ve said this before: When Ellis and Davis don’t dominate their guys on offense, they can kill the team with their defense.
* Brandan Wright. He’s still pretty good. When he’s out there to be seen.
Tim I have nothing to say.
I’m at a loss for words. Words cannot describe the incredible frustrating angst that is building up in every fiber of my body. Tonight was not a good night. Tomorrow will be better because my boo is coming in from out of town, and believe me I will take it out on his tender loins.
another terrible loss…should’ve been an easy win but it just shows that warriors don’t have a shot blocker inside. WEll, Actually they do but he sits on the bench (B-Wright). Until Nelly realize that he just needs to play Wright then it will be tough to stop the other teams penetrating and scoring. Nelly just needs to stop being stubborn and realize that he needs the rookie to succeed.
Denver has shown the ability to beat anyone when they feel like it. They beat us at home earlier this year. If they know they need to go 2-0 against the warriors - and thus, grab the tiebreaker agains us - I am not sure we can claim we’ve got this in the bag just yet.
Truth, I would have to agree with you I think Denver is much better than they are playing and it is no sure thing for the W’s. I just want to say that free throws, defense and better shot selection is what the Warriors needed tonight. If they do not step it up in those areas then it could be a tough 15 games
I knew once Baron was put back in the game in the fourth, the game was lost. Don Nelson should have milked it a lil bit more. As soon as Jax and Baron were inserted the first thing they do is jack up some 3’s. Their shot selection is horrible. Live by the gun and die by the gun, I guess.
To me this type of loss just shows how unreal Houston’s winning streak really was. All NBA teams are pretty damn talented and even the crap squads like Neckramento can whip you if you don’t come to play.
Give Wright the minutes that are going to Matt Barnes soon or the Dubs won’t make the playoffs. No disrespect to Matt but Wright is by far the more effective player
Boridge: That crap squad actually came closest to derailing Houston mid-streak, 89-87 (in Houston). Maybe it ain’t such crap after all.
That third quarter was just terrible. The Warriors did not look interested, period.
This is wild, baseless speculation: Man, I’m just thinking, what if Artest decides to opt out in Sacramento this summer with a stated goal of landing in Golden State next season? At the end of the year, he just opts out of his contract and tells Mullin to get it done, because that’s why he opted out.
What would adding Artest to the Warriors roster do? They have room for him; just get rid of POB. Where would they be this year with him?
Personally, I think you’d be looking at 5-6 more wins.
Or more.
By the way, Boridge, as a white guy myself, I’m pretty proud of Sacramento’s racial and cultural diversity. I know a lot of Bay Area people like to raise their noses a bit when they refer to Neckramento, but I bet my neighborhood (Pocket) is more culturally diverse than yours. And, heh, it’s also pretty affluent.
This was one of the worst games I’ve seen this year. As a Kings fan, if this wasn’t the GSW’s I would have clicked off at half -time. With our starting PG out, Artest questionable until the start and with Brad Miller’s legs wearing out 2 weeks ago I was all set for a 20 point loss.
Honestly, I don’t watch the GSW’s much but how can a team that has almost no defense, attempts 25 3 -pointers hope to go far in the playoffs. The Kings beat the Lakers at Staples about 10 days ago and you guys came in looking to sleepwalk through them for an easy win.
In 2 years the rebuilding Kings are going to be reaching playoff contention. Your current line up is going to be running on fumes and Nellie is going to retired. All I can say is enjoy it while you can because this unit won’t last long. You forget that the Kings owned you for 7 years and your run will end end the same way ours did when C Webb’s knee went out in the playoffs. That’s all it takes. Until the Warriors get serious about defense it’s going to be early exits from the playoffs until you aren’t even playing for the 8th spot anymore.
Four questions. Are the Ws too tired to make the big end of the season run they’re going to need? Why doesn’t Nellie play more zone defense? Does Nellie only consider playing the reserves major minutes when he’s given up? How does question one relate to question three?
The W’s have not been playing well, in my estimation, for the last couple of weeks. They barely squeaked by Memphis and threw up all over themselves in the closing minutes of the Suns game. They have to right the ship. Why they’re slumping now is a mystery to me.
And Nelson, for GOD’S SAKE, has got to keep Brandon Wright in the rotation. No, he’s not a savior. But he’s a solid rebounder and defender with the potential to score.
Sacramento’s people aren’t the problem…it’s just the place. Therefore, I’ve always referred to Sacramento as Suckramento.
I know there’s lots of people who like it there…but I’ve lived there…and will never live there again.
Pocket, BTW, is NOT affluent. Unless you’re counting the plethora of spinning rims on cars.
“In 2 years the rebuilding Kings are going to be reaching playoff contention. Your current line up is going to be running on fumes and Nellie is going to retired.”
How are the Warriors going to be “running on fumes” when they are the 3rd or 4th youngest team in the league, with no significant rotation player over 30. I think the Kings will have a tough time reaching playoff contention with the young Warriors, Blazers, Lakers, & Utah only getting better. But it is nice to see that not ALL Kings fans turned to W’s fans.
Sean, you’re crazy. You’ve never heard of Dutra Bend? Riverlake?
I don’t live in either of those, but if you’re not a doctor or a lawyer, you probably can’t afford it.
I’d say Pocket is middle-class and up. I don’t know, maybe someone dropped you off on Meadowview and told you it was the Pocket? If you don’t have $400k+ for a house, you can forget all about the Pocket.
Kings roster really is a disaster. Now, I think Ron Artest would be an OUTSTANDING fit at Golden State, but if he leaves, the Kings are left with what they got for Bibby, plus, KT, SAR and Brad Miller. Kevin Martin is nice, I guess. But, tell me, what else do they have?
Warriors hopefully are embarrassed today.
Off to Disneyland. See you on Monday.
Oh, and one more thing: Even with the roster the Kings have, they face the probability of a luxury tax in each of the next two years.
Old, injured and bad.
Which should make the Warriors even MORE embarrassed.
But the Kings have been winning lately. I told you to watch out for this game.
MikeM-
It’s fantastic that you love your neighborhood so much and have pride in your community AND you’re a Warrior fan, but it sounds very much like you don’t know a lot about the Bay Area. I grew up in Sac (Davis, Northgate, Orangevale, Downtown, Fair Oaks) and still visit family in Sac (Fair Oaks, South Sac, West Sac, Downtown, Sac State, Roseville, Elk Grove, Cordova). I’m well versed in the area.
To attempt to label the current day Sacramento Metropolitan area to the ethic/racial diversity of the Bay Area is a gigantic miss. While there have been huge strides in that area (my HS in Orangevale had 19 people of color for 1,350+ students for example) it’s nothing like in the Bay Area. Sacramento STILL has a very segregated feel to it, with lots of “pockets” of Black, Chinese, Vietnamese, Russian, and Hispanic communities in limited areas.
As for affluence, $400K for a house? Please take 5 minutes and surf to zillow or dqnews. You couldn’t even buy a house in West Oakland for $400K, let alone the rest of the Bay Area unless it was an auction, foreclosure or condo.
Again, Sacramento is a great place but trying to equate the racial diversity and affluence of Sacramento to the Bay Area is an exercise in futility. Mike, you should probably stick to discussing basketball.
It’s difficult to accept quietly that BD and Monta are playing poorly. These courageous(No Fear)players are simply tired. SJ has the look, too. Warriors all, but too many hard minutes without substitution. Nelson’s lack of trust in Barnes and Buke and to a lesser extent, MP has worn down his 1st,2nd, and 3rd options just before the playoff sprint. Nellie may be a genius at mismatches, but he’s no genius using his resources, including not fostering a positive environment for his young players to develop.(4 years and Biedrins doesn’t have a move around the basket.) BW and POB stories are equally thin and disturbing. POB, at the minimum, could have been valuable as an old time hatchet man in the middle. It’s hard to watch great players run out of gas.
Kings does not have a bright future. Face it. What kind of future do they have, other than the skinny dude, kevin martin? who i think is overrated. Ron artest already said he does not want to be a King. Brad Miller is getting old. It will take more than 2 years before you get back to the playoffs. Try 7 to 8 more years of being inferior to the warriors.
I don’t think Warrior fans need to worry too much about the loss, the Kings are a weird team this year - for example, in the last month, we have lost to the T-Wolves at home and beat the Lakers in LA. That pretty much sums up our whole season. We get up for big games and having a bunch of GSW fans at Arco, I think, kinda pissed the team off in all honesty.