Fast Break

Given the intricate chess game that’s about to begin, it’s a bit silly to do a player-by-player match-up analysis.  For all we know, Baron Davis might be guarding Dampier by the time things are done this evening.  That said, the match-ups reveal where the opening strategic moves likely will take place.  Follow the jump for the head-to-head.

Baron Davis v. Jason Terry – A pure battle of speed vs. strength.  Baron’s bum knee will make it hard for him to keep Jet out of the lane.  He needs to pick him up early and often to knock the Mavs off their offensive motion.  On the other side, Baron should have little trouble backing down the smaller Terry.  The only questions are 1) will he show the discipline to do it (I think yes) and 2) when the double team comes will he be able to find the open man (I sure hope so).  I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams switch this match-up to allow Ellis to guard Terry and George to take Davis.

Monta Ellis v. Devean George – George provides the Mavs with solid defense in the starting line-up, but his limited offensive game plays right into the Ws scheme.  Whether Ellis or Davis ends up guarding him, the defender will be free to swing to the ball, going for swipes and steals.  George may punish us occasionally if we play off him, but it’s a risk the Warriors likely will take to create chaos for the Mavs offense.  On the other side, Ellis and Davis just need to take George to the hoop.  He can get physical with both Warriors, but he can’t keep up with their foot speed.

Jason Richardson v. Josh Howard – It’s unclear whether Howard or Dirk will guard JRich, but Richardson will likely take Howard.  For JRich, it’s a tough match-up.  Howard is long, fast, and explosive.  Richardson will need to work hard for his looks but also focus on getting others involved and hitting the boards.  Given his huge play against the Mavs, he may attract a lot of attention.  He could be a great decoy early to get Jackson and Harrington off to fast starts.  If Richardson guards Howard, he needs to keep him out of the lane.  Howard has great variety to his game, but he does the most damage when he can slash into the key and steal offensive rebounds or put backs.  Richardson must work to deny him those easy looks.

Stephen Jackson v. Dirk Nowitzki – The battle everyone will be watching early in the game.  When they met in Oakland last time Jackson was all over Dirk, shut down his game, and forced him into a frustration technical.  Nelson may start with this plan again, but Avery surely will have a counter attack.  I expect the Mavs to drive at Jackson early in the hopes of getting him in foul trouble.  Both our offense and defense suffer when he’s on the bench.  For Jackson on offense, the challenge will be to make Dirk work.  The big German doesn’t like playing defense, so some of Jackson’s sneaky drives to the hoop or back-cuts to the three point arc will be there.  He has a knack for getting under players’ skins.  Let’s hope he can do it again with Dirk.

Al Harrington v. Erick Dampier – Avery swears establishing his big man is a key to his game plan.  We’ll see.  I suspect they try to feed Damp early to punish Harrington.  If Damp puts the ball on the floor, however, Ellis or Davis will have it in an instant.  The challenge, then, will be for Harrington to push Damp out far enough to where he can’t just turn and shoot.  As with Yao, Al showed he’s up to the challenge.  On offense, Harrington should have his open three pointer all day long.  He’s been on fire recently.  If he keeps hitting it, Damp will be gone in a matter of minutes.

Mickael Pietrus v. Jerry Stackhouse – An interesting match-up from the bench.  Pietrus needs to play within his skills offensively.  Stack is crafty and will make him pay if he’s sloppy or out of control.  At the same time, Pietrus should have some looks from the corners if works hard to get open.  Stack isn’t the best defender on this team.  On the other side, Pietrus just needs to punish Stack physically.  Knock him around when he’s off the ball, get in his face on jumpers, and deny him the lane.  He’s a potent scorer, but one who usually needs some open looks to get hot.

Devin Harris v. ???  - Harris has tremendous speed and there’s no one on the Ws outside of Ellis who can stay with him.  His offense isn’t developed to the point where he can kill us every game, but he will drive the lane and pick up some easy fouls.  If George’s limited offensive game allows the Ws to cheat too much on defense, Harris will get the call to take his place.  On defense, Harris is a terrific on-the-ball player.  Both Davis and Ellis need to be careful and cautious.  The mental lapses we saw in the past few games with ball-handling and passing will turn into Mavs points with Harris in the game.

DeSagana Diop v. Andris Biedrins – I still think Nellie is going to find a creative way of using Andris.  He’s too talented to be left on the bench for long stretches.  If he decides to play things straight, however, we’ll likely see him to provide extra height when Diop comes off the bench.  Andris needs to focus on positioning with the Mavs’ stronger big men.  If he uses his footwork to stay in front of them, he should get some over the back calls.  If he allows them to fight for good position, he’ll get knocked out of a lot of rebound opportunities.  Diop is deceptively effective, so the Warriors can’t take him lightly.

Matt Barnes v. Greg Buckner – Both players bring a lot of energy and toughness.  Barnes, however, looks to be the bigger player in terms of minutes.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nellie run him everywhere from point guard to Dirk-defender to center against Damp.  He’s been fantastic the past few weeks – hustling and playing smart on offense.  If he keeps it up, he could provide one of the key pieces to the Warriors’ small ball attack.

Jose Juan Barea v. ??? – If Avery decides to fight small with small, Barea provides speed and ball-handling off the bench.  Harris/Barea or Terry/Barea backcourts could punish the Warriors if they’re unable to close off the lane, but would get equally abused by our larger guards on defense.  He played well in his start with the NDBL-Mavs last week, so you can’t rule out a few brief appearances.

Adonal Foyle v. ??? – It sounds crazy, but Adonal might be just what the doctor ordered if Damp gets a game established.  After playing him for years in Warriors’ practices, he knows Damp’s game.  Foyle’s slowness also isn’t a problem given Damp’s speed.  Finally, some extra shot-blocking around the rim could help the Ws if the small guys prove incapable of keeping Dallas out of the lane.  Again, with these two coaches, no line-up is too strange.
Only a few more hours until the real fun begins…