Go Big Mavs, We Dare You
In the aftermath of the Warriors’ Game 1 victory, everyone (read: Dallas and national media) has concluded that Avery made a huge mistake going small and needs to play Damp and Diop major minutes in Game 2. Sounds great, except for the fact that it makes no sense whatsoever. Four reasons why after the jump.
Reason 1: Damp and Diop have had no success against the Warriors. If these guys had produced big games this season against the Ws, I could understand the call for them. The numbers, however, suggest just the opposite. In the March game (the only one with both rosters at full strength), the two-headed center produced a whopping 8 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 fouls in 31 minutes. Hardly earth shaking. Maybe they made their difference on defense? No such luck: Andris and Al shot a combined 13-13. The other games show more of the same. Against the DunMurphy line-up, the Mavs’ bigs managed 7 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 fouls in 28 minutes. The most recent game? Diop delivered 4 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 fouls in 23 minutes (Damp was injured). I know losing to the Ws at home has Dallas flustered, but holding up Damp and Diop as the solution to their ills seems like a sign of desperation.
Reason 2: Damp and Diop might not be on the floor long enough to make a difference. Most of those calling for more Diop and Damp minutes are pointing to their apparent success last night (more on that below). It’s not clear, however, that their propensity for fouling the Warriors’ lighting quick line-up will allow them to stay on the court for much longer. Diop picked up 5 fouls in 16 minutes. Damp didn’t get whistled, but wasn’t exactly game-changing either. There’s a reason he played 2 minutes. As much as guys like Hollinger over at ESPN would love to project his rebounding numbers over the game (72 rebounds per 48 minutes!!!), I’m not buying it.
Reason 3: Diop’s plus/minus number says little. Some of the “go big” proponents have hyped up Diop’s +8 performance last night as evidence that he can punish the Warriors. The argument breaks down, however, when you study the match-ups for his time in the game (thanks to RamboDave for the link in his earlier comment). Diop came in as soon as Harrington came out at the end of the first / beginning of the second. The Mavs went on a run. When Harrington came back a few minutes later, the run ended (despite Diop’s continued presence in the game). The exact same thing happened in the third quarter. Harrington demonstrated against Yao and Boozer that he can guard bigger men. Andris, despite his height, seems to have more trouble with the stronger players. No one has demonstrated yet that Diop or Damp gives the Mavs an advantage against Al.
Reason 4: Leaving Damp and Diop in the game frees up our entire team. What Avery likely understands is that leaving the slow big men in the game doesn’t just leave Harrington open to beat the Mavs from outside. It forces the rest of the Mavs defenders to scramble to compensate, opening back door opportunities and driving lanes for other Warriors. The Ws have moved the ball well enough that I have no doubt Al will be ready to exploit such opportunities when the Mavs’ bigs inevitably drift to the key. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pietrus get some time at center. He can camp in the corner, daring Diop or Damp to leave him alone for a three pointer. On defense, neither Mavs’ big man has a game from outside 5 feet. As long as the Warriors can make the entry pass difficult and fight for position, the dump to the low post won’t be a consistently viable option for the Mavs.
Long story short: I’ve been amazed how fast the Dallas and national media have thrown Avery under the bus for going small. Yes, there’s a psychological effect to playing the Warriors’ game, but anyone who takes a long look at the past match-ups likely will conclude that the big line-up is far from a magic solution (if not an even worse option). If Avery goes big Wednesday night and the Mavs still come up short, I’m dying to hear what the armchair media proposes for their next coaching move.
Nice analysis, exactly the facts “the masses” miss. The dubs provide match up nightmares for the Mavs, with Howard being the only clear advantage. If Avery can’t figure out how to use Josh effectively AS HIS NO 1 SCORING OPTION (instead of the MVP) we win this series. If Avery goes big like everybody wants him to (including us) we win this series. Nobody else on Dallas is a consistent difference maker, no disrespect to the skills of Terry, Harris, Stackhouse. The slowness of Diop and Dampier would open up serious lanes in transition, and the dubs would absolutely exploit that, outside and in (that’s what they’re built to do). The Warriors, who feature five scorers on the court simultaneously, all with 3 pt range and inside game. We would be playing 5 on 3 the first 5 - 10 seconds of almost every possesion. There is no way that does not work to our advantage, since neither center has the offensive skills to make us pay.
So does Avery have to chutzpah to make the bold move, countering the media sages’ advice and matching his mentor in unorthodoxy? I’m thinking (hoping) Goliath might not be fast enough to make the adjustment.
We’ll see on Wednesday. If Johnson gets goaded into going big, could be check mate. Good to hear the Warriors stay loose while the Mavs get tighter though. Flexible and adaptable beats rigidity almost every time.
Cheers!
PS John Hollinger has never won a basketball game in his life (although I’d let him do my taxes for sure).
That was a great analysis. Really great work.
Oh another consideration completely lost on the national media - Diop and Dampier have no clear advantage over Biedrins and Foyle actually. In fact even our slow bigs are faster than their slow bigs, Biedrins has the best offensive game of the four and honestly I’d rather have Foyle than Dampier; he plays the game with intensity and passion, you never doubt his effort or heart.
Cheers!
This is pretty damn spectacular. I have never seen anyone break it down like this. I’m a Warriors STH in law school…so your time blogging as an attorney is inspiring. NOBODY will come up with anything like this in the coming days, unless they straight rip it off you.
The worst part about this win has been the media blaming the Mavs for losing rather than giving the Warriors respect for winning.
Thanks for writing the first good article refuting the BS that is being blindly spewn about by the national media!
Theres no way Dampier/Diop can guard Harrington. Even worse for the Mavs is that Nowitski would have to chase Jackson or Richardson. To me it sounds like a lot of extra running around and potential foul trouble for Nowitski. Game two should be really interesting.
Adam,
I can’t argue with the stats but as we’re fond of saying, the stats don’t tell the whole story. In last years playoffs Diop changed the demeanor of the series with his at the basket defense and rebounding. Against the fast paced Suns, his presence helped shut down the revolving door of lay-ups and forced the Suns to pull the ball out, giving the Mavericks time to set up their defense.
In the first game of this series, albeit in short spurts, Diop was able to reprise his role as a defensive enforcer, picking up two blocks in 16 minutes. Even more ominous were the 5 offensive rebounds. If the only offensive contribution he brings to the table is that kind of dominate offensive rebounding, he’s more than a one dimensional threat.
Thankfully, in game one he also picked up fouls at the same rate he picked up offensive rebounds. My point is, Diop is a much more formidable opponent than Dampier. I’m not intimating that we need to game plan around Diop, but there is at least some sense in the non sense from the Dallas media.
Speaking of player match-ups that concern me, how impressive was Josh Howard? His size, quick hands and feet comprise the prototype defender for playing Baron Davis. Howard is too valuable to play Baron over the entire course of the game but come the fourth quarter, playing Howard on Baron could force the Warriors to put the ball in Jackson’s hands to run the offense. Of course, Jackson has been excellent in that role but he’s no Baron Davis.
The other player who’s shown an ability to play a type of effective defense is Devon Harris. Primarily that has been flopping. While loathsome, it’s doubly efficient because when it’s called, it stops the game, slows the pace and it forces the Warriors to be more methodical when they have a chance to post up a shorter player who should be at a clear disadvantage.
They could try Diop, Damp and Dirk across the front court but they’d have to give up too much on offense.
Offensively, there isn’t much the Mavericks can do that give me pause. If you were Avery, would you trust Damp enough to consistently put the ball in his hands in the post? Limit Dirk’s effectiveness by posting him up? Ask Howard or Stackhouse to be one of your primary ball handlers? Do anything to remove Terry and or Harris from the floor in order to find minutes for both Diop and Damp at the same time, or Croshere off the bench? The vanilla truth is the Mavericks offense will be the biggest threat to the Warriors if they just keep doing what they’ve been doing all season, just more efficiently. That includes Dampier and Diop in the post. At the very least, it means at least one big body wearing down Harrington in the post as opposed to the marshmallowy post up game of Nowitzki (the Murphy of the West).
In the end, what scares me the most is what you pointed out on Thursday, namely how do the refs call the game? Right off, isn’t that a sad commentary about the role of the referee in today’s NBA? The quick hand of Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Richardson, Barnes, Pietrus, and Harrington are an integral part of how the Warriors play defense. If they refs call fouls for every reach in, if will force the Warriors into playing more position defense and that would play into the Mavericks hands. While that would also hamper Howard’s defensive effectiveness, it definitely a net win for the Mavs. Even worse, if it means multiple trips to the line, the Mavericks are an excellent free-throw shooting team, while the Warriors aren’t. On the other hand, when the referees end up being the key to a team’s chances to win a series, you got to feel pretty good. Let’s hope the good times keep rolling, and the ref’s whistles don’t become the theme song of this series.
Keep up the great posts, Go Warriors!
Interesting that over in Dallas today, the sportswriters are trying to come up with “ways to deal with Baron”. I guess the Warriors are finally being taken seriously as contenders in this contest. Go look at Dallas News-Moore’s column “Mavs must keep Baron grounded”.
With who? Howard’s the only one they have who can shut BD down (bigger players like Buckner and George are too slow, Harris and Terry will get posted up into oblivion), and that still leaves Jax to run things. Also preoccupying Josh could be the best thing because what the Mavs have to do is utilize his inside game more, and if he gets tired chasing Baron about, that can be a good thing.
If they can get Dirk to pass out of his double teams to cutters like Howard and Harris, that could be very dangerous. Dirk’s only recently started to do that much though (actually has some assists this year) so his effectiveness is still in question. If Nowitski pretends like he’s a normal 7 fter and passes out of the low post when the dubs collapse on him (ala Duncan) the Mavs can really turn around (but he has yet to proove he can do that consistently against anybody and he might be picking the wrong team to learn against).
Should be interesting, despite Nellie’s down home (and overwrought) humbleness the fact remains the dubs ARE lightning right now, and it’s more than a little possible that they can strike twice in the same place.
Cheers!
Great analysis here. I agree with most in that Josh Howard is THE key to the Mavericks turning this series in their favor. He is player on their roster that presents the most problems for the Warriors.
Putting Howard on Baron is tempting sure, but it could also backfire in a huge way. Baron is one of the best in the business at beating guys off the dribble and getting inside and drawing contact. Howard is indeed the Mavs best defender, but I can see Davis gulling him into a couple early fouls with his dribble penetration.
Then Avery Johnson would be in an even bigger pickle.
That said, I have a feeling that Stephen Jackson is going to pick up a couple quick, cheap, fouls checking Nowitzki early tonight. And we’ll be the ones scrambling to matchup. Others here have touched on it, but sadly it’s just the way of the NBA.
I still think we have a puncher’s chance in this game tonight, and can’t wait for the series to shift to Oakland. That place is going to be deafening. Might be the best homecourt advantage in the playoffs right now.
The SOB Ref who tossed out Baron tonight for his sarcastic clapping needs to be put in a pit with a rabid pit bull. Are you with me?