Managing Minutes: A Quick Flashback
The flipside of the Warriors’ newfound depth is a potential crunch for playing time. Motivated by numerous excellent comments on the last post discussing minute distribution, I went back to Nelson’s rotation during the last three months of the 06-07 season to see how things looked. I was surprised with what I found.
First, the raw numbers. These are the players who averaged over ten minutes a night for at least one month during the last three of the season. The numbers listed are minutes for March, April (the regular season), and the playoffs.
Jason Richardson: 35.1 / 36.3 / 39.0
Monta Ellis: 33.6 / 37.0 / 21.6
Andris Biedrins: 32.0 / 21.7 / 24.1
Al Harrington: 31.2 / 27.0 / 23.9
Stephen Jackson: 30.8 / 27.0 / 41.4
Baron Davis: 29.5 / 31.6 / 40.4
Mickael Pietrus: 20.4 / 18.0 / 18.9
Matt Barnes: 17.2 / 24.7 / 30.0
Kelenna Azubuike: 10.5 / 5.3 / 2.7
Here’s what caught my eye:
- Nelson’s dream of playing Baron 28 minutes a night isn’t as crazy as I originally thought. He nearly pulled it off during March and April while the Warriors were rolling over opponents with huge leads. I doubt it’s a coincidence that we managed an amazing 20+ game run with Baron at 30 minutes a night but burned out after a series when he was pushing 40 minutes.
- Monta played far more minutes at the end of the season than I remembered. One explanation for his playoffs struggles I had overlooked before is burnout. He may have simply hit the wall. The fatigue combined with quick defenders and rattled confidence sealed his fate. With Belinelli, Azubuike, and Hudson on this year’s roster, I’ll be shocked if he averages anything close to last April’s 37 minuter per night. With quickness such a huge part of his game, fresh legs will be essential.
- Three guys saw big bumps in their minutes during the playoffs: Davis (8.8), Jackson (14.4) and Barnes (5.3). They also just happen to be the guys Nelson chose as captains this year. In a system that rewards production, their playing time speaks volumes.
- Finally, no one logged more minutes for this team during the last three months of the season than JRich. That cuts both ways. It’s going to take a significant contribution (or contributions) to match the steady hand he provided for 35-40 minutes a night. That said, his absence also opens up major minutes for our youngsters. Adding together JRich’s and Kelenna’s minutes for April, the team will have just over 41 to split among the new guys holding everyone else constant. That could work out to 15 for Azubuike, 15 for Belinelli, and 10 or so for Wright. That minor tweak alone would give the Warriors a potent 10 man rotation, ready to run teams relentlessly as they did during the frantic end of last season. There are an infinite number of ways you can cut the remainder of the minutes to fit in POB, Lasme, Perovic, or Croshere, but the takeaway point here is that Nellie can build from what was a successful rotation when he works to integrate the new players.
The big picture? I’m impressed with how well Nellie managed the minutes of the players he had during our end-of-the-regular-season sprint. When the rotation collapsed in the playoffs, the resulting fatigue was immediately obvious. Given that lesson, the team focused its off-season efforts on upgrading the 7-10 slots. The preseason is still in its infancy, but so far it looks like they did a great job. Ultimately, it’s inevitable that someone will be the odd man out, but there’s nothing like winning to smooth over those types of squabbles.
Another very nice breakdown of the data, Adam.
The spirited practice sessions being reported indicates that the Dubs are continuing their “era of good feelings.” Let’s hope that winning and a wise distribution of minutes can help carry that through the season.
Still, UNLESS the Dubs employ a 1996 Kentucky Wildcat style where guys are constantly rotating in and out and the team is running, running, running, swarming, swarming, swarming, they might be better off trading one or two of their swing guys for another productive big. This would ease up the logjam for minutes and add needed quality front court depth.
Not in a hurry though. Excited to see what we have over the next 90 days.
Matt Barnes is a tri-captain this season? Congrats Barnes
Great info Adam!
I was worried about how the minutes would be distributed, but you’ve pointed out how we can keep the main guys happy.
With Croshere and Hudson vets that know (hopefully) their role, Nellie can provide those garbage time minutes to the rooks. The Vets can fill in if foul trouble or injuries occur. I see some of the rooks along with Hudson as the early candidates for the inactive list. It seems more like Hudson is an insurance policy for Baron’s frail body.
Gonna miss J-Rich and the max time he put out for us. But it’s good to know that his minutes will be used to cultivate our newer players.
Just saw Barnett’s latest video blog. The excitement keeps increasing exponentially!!!
Barnett and others have been raving about the new look POB!!! If POB can give us a solid 10-15min this year that would be beyond my expectations coming into the pre-season. Barnett also said Belinelli was better than he thought. AH said that same thing… the guy is a flat out shooter.
Plus… Nellie has said Harrington has been the best player so far… a man on a mission!!!
Oh man… with all the talk about Monta, AB, Baron, Jax, Barnes having big years… no one on the thread really expected much from POB or AH. Our expectations are now growing for a couple of guys we were counting out.
My prediction for wins this year is growing… I was hoping for at least 42 wins… I’m more comfortable now with 46+ wins. Am I being too optimistic, is it just the excitement gained from having basketball back???
Thanks again for this forum, Adam. One thing you failed to point out in your data was that both Andris and Al had precipitous declines in mpg at the end of last season. I’m guessing they were also worn down by then, as we didn’t have any other true 4 or 5 getting minutes.
At the very least, Croshere gives us a 3rd legitimate big. We’ll be in great shape if any one of POB, Kosta, BW, and Lasme can step up.
I’m so excited about the season that I feel like I’m going to explode!
Wander7:
I too get all worked up thinking about the season and all the craziness. Isn’t this great? Then I come down to earth and wonder why it isn’t me who gets to spend a month in Hawaii (all paid), gets great meals, gets to spend days playing basketball, nights flirting with the local islanders, gets to work 8 months a year, gets showered with adulation, gets personal trainers and shooting specialists, is the object of TV and radio interviews, gets his picture on billboards, and oh, did I forget, gets paid millions for this privilege. Hey, at least we all get to talk about it!
Guys, let’s temper our excitement until we’ve seen the team play a month of the regular season. Nothing wrong with optimism, but for our own mental health let’s keep it guarded. An for Pete’s sake, Wander7. Don’t explode. Who’ll clean up the mess?
Having said that, I don’t think that gr5518’s prediction of 46+ wins is unreasonable. That’s in the range of most predictions on this blog.
Mullin and AB had breakout 2nd seasons with the Dubs, so its possible I suppose for POB to do the same, I suppose. But I’m still reserving any hope until I see him play a few games. Regarding Al H: I expect him to be an improved version of who he was last year. In other words, same skill set, but maybe a few more points and one rebound more a game. If he’s paired with Jax at the other forward spot, we’ll still be a bit light on the boards. But at least we some reliable reserves who can come in and help a little in that regard.
Barnes is the first casuality of training camp!
That’s not good, swollen foot. Unfortunately I know about injuries from personal experience. Currently recovering from my own foot problem before I have to another ACL done in December. Let’s hope Barnes is alright.
46 wins is definitely do-able, health plays a big role on a teams season. Last year Memphis without Gasol and Lowry took a nose dive. The Clips without Livingston last year and Brand this year are the big losers this year. Memphis is new team we have to contend with. They basically brought in a entirely new backcourt; Conley, Lowry(healthy), Jacobsen and Navarro.
Other Playoff contenders: Spurs, Suns, Mavs, Rockets, Nugs and Jazz.
Bubble: Dubs, Griz, Hornets, Lakers
Hi guys,
Just wanted to echo what Son of Ahmed wrote about easing back our expectations. The reports have been great so far, but they’ve all been from people either directly or indirectly on the Warriors’ payroll. That’s not to knock the official team blog - which has had great information and stories - but I want to see progress with my own eyes before I get my hopes up.
Adam–great point about the conditioning factor with Monta at the end of the season. Both he and Beans were getting exponential run under Nellie last year v. their utilization with Monty. We’re talking 18 minutes in 49 appearances in 2006 compared to 34 minutes in 77 games. Big jump there for the kid from Mississippi. Likewise, Beans’ minutes jumped from 14 to 39 (68 games in 2006; all of ‘em last year). Favorable matchups and staying out of foul trouble will garner him more run this year.
With a new found appreciation of what conditioning is needed for the Dubs’ system, look to those two and Al for marked improvement and greater contribution.
Another note about trying to replace JRich by committee–we forget about the respect factor. We have heard time and again during pre-game and post-game interviews with opposing coaches and players on how they have to key on both Baron and JRich. You let Number 23 get hot, and it’s game over. We will obviously miss that physical and psychological advantage.
Is it just me or does everyone check this blog before or at the same time one checks his/her personal email? This coming season let alone preseason is getting more coverage than the presidential election. I wish we can get a live feed of the pre season games. Enough with the teasing, show me everything! Go Dubs!
Well, we can play 10 players 24 minutes per night. But for every player that plays more than that, one plays less than that. And of course that means 5 players sit and don’t play at all. Management has done such a great job of finding talent, I’m not sure there are 5 players that will be happy with dnp.
Or we can play 12 players 20 minutes per night.
It seems this team is built for an uptempo run and gun system that uses a deep bench, but which therefore limits the minutes of even the best players. I think that would be tough to sell players if they are concerned about their points per game and other stats.
I’d rather see us go deep into the bench (playing 10-12 per night) and push it 48 minutes per game at least at the start of the season. Then at least we are maximizing the value of players we might want to trade. If we just pick a starting 5 or 6 and give them 30 minutes plus each, then we will have quality bench players getting very few minutes or not playing at all, which will minimize their trade value. Or who knows, it may be so successful a style, using a deep bench and constantly pushing the tempo, we may just keep everyone and continue with it.
Whatever the case, this is going to be fun to watch.
Did everyone check out all the “Prodigal Son” stuff about Pietrus from Janny and Geoff. Nelson sounds like he’s expecting a significant contribution from MP. There’s always been a bigger than warranted backlash against Mickael. Despite the missed free throws and unconscionable brain farts, he’s a fluid, athletic wing that rebounds well, is fearless going to the rack, is a solid (but streaky) three point shooter and damn if the kid can’t play some much needed defense. I know we’re all in love with Bells, (show of hands, who wasn’t giggling when they saw he dropped 37 points in summer league) but there’s no way Belinelli is playing in your face D and hitting the boards. Even with the influx of talent at the wing/swing positions, there’s definitely room for more MP. Richardson’s minutes represent a huge whole in the lineup and the Warriors are going to need MP to help fill it.
About Barnes: Thursday night update: X-rays on Barnes negative. No timetable for return, but he’ll sit out practices for the foreseeable future.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/warriors/detail?blogid=39&entry_id=20896
JustPuked,
Right on point. Everyone falls in love with offense, the shooting, the passing, the range, aka Belinelli. But are team is built to be high scoring. What we need more than scoring is tough defense and rebounding (especially with the absence). With a weak rebounding 3/4 Nellie is going to try and offset some of those weak numbers at the 1/2 spot by playing MP and AZ at 2 and Monta (tall and athletic for a 1) for the most part at the 1.
I’m pretty excited that Al has been standing out thus far. I’m just wondering if he has improved his offense, defense/rebounding or both?
JP, Garlicboy—
Good point about defense. It’s telling that Nellie reportedly starts practices by doing defensive drills first. That fast ballhawking defense we effectively used late last year requires that all players work together as a unit and know their switching rotations instinctively.
With a deeper bench, whoever gets the defensive schemes better will probably get more playing time.
ChuckC,
I like your idea and suggestion on allocating some minutes on everybody on the team. It maybe a good idea also to divide the team into 2 groups playing alternately to keep fresh legs all the time.
If you divide it into 2 groups one could hardly tell which group is better depending on the situation - the mood and the self-motivation. By then Nellie would have a better look at the overall strategy on the minutes per game issue.
It would be interesting to see our opponents’ starting fives - tired and exhausted against our 2nd Group with fresh legs - running and gunning all over them and shooting at will with T Hudson or Monta E at the point
and Marco B at shooting guard, and M Barnes at SF and
S Lasme at PF and A Chrosher at C!!!!
Now that we are getting closer to the start of preseason, I am starting to feel more and more confident about our team and where we stand. Not over confident by any strech. We still can’t say we are a top tier team in the west, but we are working our way up the ladder. Adam makes a great point that all of the talk coming out of camp is by Warrior employees. Of course they are being paid to be there push out info that will make people buy up tix. But that being said, I am really excited about the mix of talent that we seem to have at our disposal. Nellie is the perfect coach for this situation because he has the respect of all of the players. He can mix and match lineups and let the players play a fast paced tempo while not tiring them out. One of the things we have talked about all offseason was the fact that we ran out of gas towards the end of the season. If we can keep our rotation up to 10 guys that will be great for our longterm effectiveness. I don’t think any of the guys will be complaining about minutes - unless we start losing a lot of game which would probably make Nellie shorten the lineup anyway.
The excitement is building and it is nice to have this blog as an outlet. Thanks for keeping this train moving Adam!
4 days and counting…
As a player, you want to play as much as you can. As a team, everyone is concerned with winning regardless of minutes played. As long as you’re contributing to the cause, I don’t think anyone will be complaining about minutes. I like the idea of the options we have at every position, as opposed to relying on one or two individuals. Defense will be that much better too. This will be a very fun season for us. Patiently waiting …
WarriorNation–
As far I know the first preseason game on Tuesday OCT. 9 against the Lakers will be covered by FSN-Bay area. Roundtable Show at 9:30PM followed by the game at 10PM. Check your local cable listing. I don’t know about the other preaseason games yet.
And you’re not the only one ‘addicted’ to this site.
I love coming here because Adam puts out excellent blogs and we have a good community of well-behaved grownups. There are other forums to get your Warriors fix but this is the best.
with 15 potential players and 240 minutes to carve up there is an infinite number of combinations nellie can use…and chances are he will use most of them.
this is the deepest roster in the league.
question for Adam.
I know you have a full time job and all, but your blog is gaining more and more prominence on the SJMerc website.
I think you should at least be entitled to consulting fees for keeping their online readership up.
Just a random thought!
p.s. How come TK works full-time for his organization and has a smaller following than you do?
maybe because of:
1. biased reporting
2. statements or opinions not backed by statistical evidence
3. unfocused articles
The great thing about your blog is that you write with the same passion as the rest of us but you can also back up your opinions with quantifiable data. And you don’t stray from the main point of the article.
Another addict checking in. Did anyone get a chuckle about MP expecting and then being disappointed that he did not recieve a contract similar to what were given to DunMurphy by the Warriors?
Glad he is back though, we can use him even though he drives me crazy sometimes with his…. Well you know what I mean. Keeping it positive. Don Nelson on Jim Rome said Kelenna’s looking like he might be the #2.
I’m guessing Nellie will use the run and swarm like the 96 Wildcats (as SOA suggested). This team is built to create turnovers. Rebounding is important but I believe if you can harass and dominate a team defensively before the shot is taken, the overall results will be better (than having a strong rebounding team).
I see Nellie rotating 10 - 11 players in the regular season on a daily basis. The minutes will change based on the team match-ups, who’s hot and on whether or not it is a B2B game.
The bottom line is that this team has the ability to drive other teams crazy with swarm defense and opportunistic offense.
Wow! It sure is it nice to talk about the Dubs being able to play some D. If this is a dream, please DON’T WAKE ME UP!
I say lay off T. K. He gives alot to his blog along with his other responsibilities. Most writers don’t even bother.
I enjoy Adam’s work here too. So thanks Adam. You are getting an unusual amount of respect and love for an attorney!
“You are getting an unusual amount of respect and love for an attorney!”
Best line in a long time!
When I read that MP though he was going to get the same deal that DunMurphy got I almost fell out of my chair laughing. I guess he didn’t get the memo that those guys were grossly over paid and were traded because of it. It’s funny to me that I remember after one of the games last year Barnett was interviewing MP and he said that money was not the most important thing to him and he just wanted to have fun and win games. Then he comes out this year and holds out until the last possible minute. I don’t have a problem with money being a part or all of your reason for signing with a team, but when you say things like that and then don’t back it up, it makes you look like an ass. People understand that you are part of a billion dollar business and money comes into play BIG TIME, so why act like its not important when it really is. It’s okay to be honest and say “I want to be here, I love it here, but I have to make the right decision for me and my family. That means that if I don’t get a deal that I am happy with here, I’m going to go elsewhere.” I would respect that a lot more than doing what he did.
Valr,
That’s the only game FSN is carrying. And none of our preseason games are being covered nationally. But the Lakers and Cleveland are on 3 times in case you need a nap.
I’m trying not to be too overconfident, but its hard not to when Harrington says Belinelli “doesn’t miss” and Barnett says, “he’s automatic.”
I think he’ll be open more now than he ever was before in another system. I realize he’ll be playing against better defenses but he’ll also have better teammates that make it easier for him.
ok gang - here’s an example of what our off season conversations COULD have been like - and i don’t think even adam’s prodigious talents could have made a silk purse out of this sow’s ear:
http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/feature_warriors_071004.html
without wishing dun-gu-phy any ill, aren’t you all just the bit happy we’ve been able to obsess about other things? although i must say that must be some ferociously good weed o’brien is smoking. that line about dunleavy being a ’stat-sheet stuffer’ almost made me lose my lunch. as they say, hope springs eternal.
Nevin, How can you blame MP for trying to find a long term deal instead of a one year contract. Anyone can get hurt, plus a team offering a long term deal at least is committed to you. All players try to say the right things when interviewed, i.e. I want to return to this team and winning is more important than anything else. I don’t have any problem with MP tyring to get a long term deal. Too bad it didn’t work out for him.
3 point shooting is critical in a run and gun offense. It helps to offset the lack of a low post scoring. A 40% 3 point shooter matches a 60% post player in points per attempt at least, even if giving up a much on the boards and at the foul line. My guess is the best all around player that can shoot the 3 is going to get the starting SG spot. I think AZ is a strong 3 point shooter and has a better defensive game than Belinelli so I’d give him the nod right now, and from what I’ve heard Nelson is leaning that way too.
Imagine Baron running the break with AZ, Belinelli, SJAX and Harrinton all finding spots behind the arc in small line up. Wow!
I really hope that at least at the start Nelson goes at least 10-12 deep, either within the same game, or even in alternating games so that everyone gets a true chance, after camp, to show what they can do and develop on the court. Otherwise, what’s the point of having a deep bench if you don’t use it?!
I’m with you guys. I can’t wait to see this team play! Why no preseason game love? We made it to the 2nd round and we play exciting basketball. Who makes the schdule anyway?
Chuck -
Like I said in my post, I don’t have any problem with him trying to find the best deal for himself - whether that means length of contract, money, playing for a contender, etc.
What I’m talking about it when you give a perception of one thing to your fans and then go and do the opposite. You said that players want to “say the right things” but isn’t the right thing to say always the truth. I just didn’t feel he was honest when he said that money wouldn’t be an issue and then holds out until the last second.
No, you rarely hear the truth from athletes, unless they’re pissed off.
They usually:
Speak highly of their coach while he is still coaching them
Say the fans are great and very supportive
Say their first choice is to return to the team they are already with
Say that winning is more important than money
Say they love the area and the people
Always say something positive about their teammates
Etc.
Say they are quiet and like to read books and play games in their hotel room when on the road
They all have agents, and their agents coach them on how to respond to the basic questions they encounter with the same old cliches. So MP saying that money wasn’t important, and then it turns out money was important. That neither suprises me or makes me think any less of him. I think he gave the canned answer, the answer his agent and he agrees is the “right” answer.
For most players they want:
To play and contribute to their team’s success
To compete for a championship
To make as much money as possible
and for some you can add
To sleep with as many beautiful women as they can
Sometimes, depending on the player, and where they are in their career, the order is different.
This is completely off topic, but does KNBR’s weak coverage of the Dubs bug any of you the way it does me? The Warriors get very little coverage on their own station except for Fitz and Brooks, who I very rarely tune in to since I’m doing my part to be productive, working citizen during the day.
Living in the Sacramento area I’m glad they’re on KNBR because I get the signal clearly. But I’m torn. The “Sports Leader” is “everything Giants,” and they make no bones about it. When Dubs playoff games are demoted to 1050 so that KNBR can broadcast Giant preseason games, that says a lot about the station’s commitment to the Dubs.
Now that camp has started there should be more coverage and more discussion. Not. A lot has happened this offseason with the Dubs and KNBR has been completely off the radar. KNBR has a very entertaining line-up and I listen all the time. But I’d listen more if they covered the Dubs better.
Warrior’s fans would be better served if their team was covered on a station that is more committed to them. I’m not sure how Cohan and company can stand getting dissed the way they do by the station that is supposed to promote them.
Son of Ahmed,
Agree the coverage is weak.
Of course, I’d be glad to go to Hawaii and file non-stop reports about the team.
Anybody want to hire me as a Warrior reporter?
Tough job
to Nevin420 and ChuckC.
great debate.
either way you look at it, money is the deciding factor.
on the other side of the fence you have Sprewell turning down a 3 year 21 mil offer cuz he has a family to feed. what an ass that made him sound like. and he was just being honest.
in fairness to the players, their perspective is different. how many of us would turn down better paying jobs from competing companies?
the unfortunate thing is that we, the fans, become emotionally invested in the team and it hurts us personally if players decide to leave.
definitely agree that the players are well versed by agents in todays free-agent society. i feel like free agency ruined sports from a franchise perspective because the face is always changing.
At the risk of too much cheerleading, here’s a little something about Marco’s range:
“The night practice on Thursday continued to elicit rave reviews from staff members. The team seems to have a hunger and really enjoys practicing, as strange as that sounds. Several players continued to stand out, including Marco Belinelli and his shooting stroke. As we noted earlier this week, Davis and Belinelli spend the end of each practice shooting 35-40 foot jump shots. Belinelli walked away with Thursday night’s contest when he nailed five consecutive shots from about 37 feet to end the session. Davis, who led the NBA in steals last season, has his sights set on leading the league in assists this year. Belinelli will certainly add to his total based on what we’ve seen in camp.”
If I recall correctly, BD was almost completely spent after the first Utah playoff game at home. His amazing dunk over Kirilenko seemed to be the finale for Baron. It almost seemed as if his hamstring injury was aggravated as well after that play. Keeping him fresh with major minutes from Monte, etc. will be essential for this team - especially in the playoffs.
I totally agree about KNBR. I live in Santa Cruz and can’t even get 1050 except for a weak signal during the day. Even for the 49er post game shows are preempted by boring post, post game Giant shows. Can’t believe that.
While I am at it, does anyone like Bob Fitzgerald as an anouncer? I am not looking forward to hear about how the opposing team, or that opposing player couldn’t play any better everytime we are behind, along with his little smart aleck chuckle one more time…. We deserve better. I like Jim Barnett though. Tim Roye too, but can’t get 1050 you know.
Also, I am betting Monta will make plan for him to be the number one backup at PG work. By Nelson saying he wants to get bigger at two and talking up Kalenna, he is really pushing Monta to accept and commit. Monta seems ok with it so far.
Fed Ex showed up with my tickets yesterday. Aaaah…the smell of freshly printed paper. Go dubs!
Horrible news about Ellis. Praying for the best right now but this is exactly what i was hoping we could get out of training camp without.
The training camp blog says:
“Ellis left Castle Hospital in Kailua, Hawaii on his own accord with what was diagnosed as simply a neck sprain. The 6′3″ guard underwent a battery of tests - including an MRI and CT Scan - which all proved normal. His status is listed as day-to-day and his availability for the team’s preseason games against the Los Angeles Lakers in Honolulu on Tuesday and Thursday will be determined early next week.
Am I dreaming (I’m not suppose to be awake this early) or does this blog show a tall left handed guy dribbling and shooting a jumper from the free throw line?
http://www.nba.com/warriors/news/0708_TrainingCampBlog.html
Good to hear that Monta’s injury is not serious. I felt sick when I first heard the news last night. I’m glad he’s going to be ok.
Mikey66—I replayed that video blog several times. Andris looked good dribbling and shooting a J, looks like he’s expanding his game a little bit. That’s great news for us.
Harrington is getting great reviews and I’m getting excited to see him play too. The thing that stands out right now about this team is that everybody seems to be focused. They had a taste of success last year and they’re hungry for more. It bodes well for the season. I don’t think concentration will be an issue this year. Now we just have to see how the talent level stacks up against the competition.
Chuck C
I agree with your points above, but one common fallacy about the 3 pt versus 2 pt analysis is that you simply have to shoot 2/3 of the field shooting percentage to be equal (ie 40% 3pt, versus 60% from the field). I know it wasn’t your main point, but that analysis only takes into account the difference in the value of the shot. The simple fact is that the more you shoot from the field the more fouls you draw, giving a free throw chance on shots missed, and sometimes three point plays. In addition, to sucessfully shoot 3’s you have to pull potential rebounders out (like the warriors do) to get off 3 pt shots. So field shots tend to lead to easier second shots. The equivalent of a 40% 3 point shooter only has to shoot something like 50-55% to net the same points over the long haul.
The Warriors offense is a different thing because they wear people down, and take advantage of the huge momentum swings making two 3’s in a row at home.
Don’t mean to nitpick but the 2/3’s thing just isn’t fact.
Phob20,
Well sorry, but it absolutely is a fact. It’s basic math. A 40% 3-pt shooter and a 60% low post shooter average the same amount of points per shot = 1.2 per shot.
I did mention in the same post the advantages of the low post player in rebounding and getting fouled, but there are also advantage to the up tempo 3-pt shooting player too (able to fast break, press, create steals etc).
I think we can all argue whether a good 3 point shooter (40%) is as valuable as a good low post scorer (60%). Again, I was just pointing out the basic math, not really trying to define the pros and cons of each type of scorer, or each style of play.
If I read your post right, I think you are saying that a good low post scorer that makes 50-55% of his shots will produce as many points as a 40% 3 point shooter when you take into accounts fouls (3 point plays). If so, I wouldn’t argue with that.
But the real point of my post is that I believe Nelson’s style of run and gun competes with a good 1/2 court team with a strong low post scorer by putting a number of good 3 point shooters on the court. So I believe that Nelson will draft, trade for, and play good 3 pt shooters (Harrington, Az, Belinelli etc) and that all other things equal, I’d expect the SG job to go the best 3 point shooter that doesn’t have major weaknesses defensively or in other areas. Right now, I think the battle is between Belinelli and Az, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pietrus or Jacks start there either.
One thing on BDs dunk ove AK last year - it seemed to me that Baron got up in the air quickly enough that AK jumped up into him, actually boosting Baron up a couple of inches higher - for whatever that is worth.
rofl new look POB?
he looked lost, out of place during summer games. how is he supposed to endure the NBA?
Agreed, Eric. POB looked mediocre in SL. It’s hard to imagine that he’s improved dramatically in two months. Interestingly, on his blog (http://www.nba.com/warriors/news/0708_TrainingCampBlog.html) , Jim Barnett says that POB is playing with spirit and he’s looking much stronger. While I don’t question Barnett’s integrity, we all know that he has a propensity to see things through rose colored lens.
Perhaps we can realistically look for POB to show a little growth this season. I’ll settle for that. It’s certainly more than I expected going into the season. If reports are true that he is playing with more focus and aggression, that’s good. After all, we know that his skill set ain’t bad; it’s his mindset that’s wrong. Question is, can he keep this newfound intensity harnessed for the rest of his career, or are we dealing with a poor man’s Joe Barry Carol (God forbid), who turns it on 1 night out of 3?
Suffice it to say, POB will be yet another interesting subplot in the story that is the 2007-2008 GSW season.
Chuck C (in response to our posts 46 & 47)
First off, my point about the shooting percentage is really a moot point because I agree with all your main points, but I still stand behind that it is a fallacy that all you have to do is hit 2/3’s of your 3 point shots compared to shots from the field, and here is why.
1. Basketball is how often you score per possession. Hitting 40% of 3 pt shot is equal to 60% of field shots only if you assume there is no fouling, and no offensive rebounds.
2. The fact is that shooters are far more likely to be fouled from the field than if shooting a 3. Teams will go weeks without being fouled shooting a 3, but will shoot 25 free throws a game due to field shots. Even the woeful W’s have almost a 80% free throw average which is benefit of shooting from the field and not from behind the arc. You are exchanging a 50% shot for a 80% shot. Also, there are 3 point plays (shot and a foul).
3. Shooting from the field yields more offensive rebounds leading to easier put backs.
Example (of common occurences):
A) 5 possessions, they shoot a 3 each time, they make 2 of 5, because they get no offensive rebounds, Warriors netted six points with a 40% shooting percentage.
B) 5 Possesions, they shoot 40% (2 of 5) from the field. On the three misses they either get an offensive rebound (which is more likely than when shooting 3’s)and score giving you the same 6 points with a 50% (3of 6) shooting average from the field; or they are fouled on one of their 3 missed shots. If you make both you are at 6 points on 50% shooting (2 of 4). Even if they only hit 70% of their free throws, you only have to bump your field shooting percentage a few percent to make up the difference.
THe point is you don’t need to be at 60% to equal 40% shooting percentage of 3’s.
Once again, because its about possesions its not simply 40% 3’s is equal to 60% from the field. As the history of the NBA has shown, you get more offensive rebounds shooting from the field, and nearly all free throws come from field shots.
Last point, this is not my indictment of the Warrior system, it is simply that if two teams battle it out and one shoots 40% threes and the other shoots ~54% from the field, the free throws and additional offensive rebounds will make up the difference. Unfortunately it gets proven out in the playoffs every year.
Pbob,
I think you are misreading my point.
I am not comparing shots from the field versus 3 point shooting. All shots are from the field arent’ they anyway, if they are not free throws?
No team is going to shoot 55% “from the field.” I assume when you use the term from the field you mean within the 3 point arc.
The point I was making was comparing very good low post scorers (think Shaq) versus very good 3 point shooters, and how that relates to the W’s offensive style versus the typical 1/2 court team.
The typical 1/2 court team has one or more big men. They bring it down slowly, post up the big man, try to get the ball into the big guy, who if very good can score at somewhere close to a 60% rate over the course of a season, not counting foul shots. That’s very efficient shooting, mathematically scoring 1.2 points for every low post shot taken.
Players shooting from farther out, but within the 3 point arc (2 point shots but not low post shots) are lucky to shoot 45% over the course of a season, an efficiency of .9 pts per shot, and that includes dunks off the fast break or other types of layups.
The only players that can hope to match the scoring efficiency points per shot of the good low post scorer is a 40% 3 pt shooter.
I agree there are so many other factors within the game that effect the outcome, that focusing on the efficiency of low post scorers and 3 point shooters tends to simplify something that isn’t that simple. And there are so many other factors within the styles of play, 1/2 court style versus run and gun, that focusing on just the low post and the 3 point shooting would be a big mistake for a coach or player, or fan.
However, all that said, I think that if you are NOT going to play traditional 1/2 court basketball, if you’re going to run and gun, then I do believe that you need to have one or more players that can shoot the 3 at a high rate (40%) if you want to compete wtih a team with an effective low post scorer. Of course, that player needs to be competent in the other important skills necessary to play the game, or they will just trade off the efficiency advantage of their 3 point shooting in other areas (defense, turn overs, etc). Again, I believe Coach Nelson is actively trading for, drafting, and will play guys that can shoot the 3 point shot effectively, as long as they are not a liability in other areas of their game.
ESPN’s Ric Bucher on the Warriors:
“We Believe, is alive and well. It’s a blind, no-matter-what-happens sort of faith.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp07/columns/story?columnist=bucher_ric&page=warriorscamp
It seems even Belinelli is surprised how fast the team plays. “In Italy, we don’t run like this,” he said. “I have to improve. I have to work harder. I just want to stay in the group, be part of the team.”
Can’t wait to see the team play tomorrow!
Chuck C
We are in agreement on all the main points. I just cringe when I hear the discussions that in a full game shooting 40% 3’s equates to having to shoot 60% from the field (or any ratio of 2 to 3). Field shots simply bring along other points per possesion that allows a lower shooting percentage in the field than 3/2 (or 1.5 times)the shooting percentage from 3’s.
The real issue, that we both would agree, is the Warriors have to rebound better this year, and need to draw more fouls when they do go to the hole.
Go W’s!
Ron
SOA & Eric,
Agree with you guys–it’s hard to believe the recent good reports about POB. Still, because he was too passive and showed nothing last year, any sign of life from him would be noticeable. Anyway there’s a good chance he’ll get to play this preseason while the team determines if he’s worth picking up the team option. Or maybe another team might show interest?
As it stands right now, I think Nellie will play Croshere behind Andris. I hope Andris can stay out on the court longer this year for rebounding.