The Hard Way (Warriors 105, Wolves 101)
The Warriors are winning basketball games. That makes me happy. The way that they’re doing it, however, has me more than a little worried. Whether they’re simply playing down to competition or not good enough to put away the NBA’s worst, the Ws had their hands full at home Wednesday night against the Wolves. They pulled it out, but only after squandering a 20-point first half lead with stretches of passive play in the second half. When the Warriors put it all together, whether for a few minutes or a quarter, they’re a beauty to behold and a brutal opponent. Unfortunately, those moments of textbook Nelson fluidity have been dwindling. With a run of playoff teams ahead on the schedule, we’re about to find out how good this team really is a third of the way into the season.
Some important facts to get out of the way first: The Warriors are 5 games above .500. They’re 2.5 games out of the second spot in the Western Conference. They’re winning road games at a clip we haven’t seen in a generation. All of these things are huge reasons for optimism and excitement.
Despite it all, however, it’s hard to shake that feeling that things are unstable. Nellie rode his starters for major minutes despite a 20-point lead against the NBA’s worst team. He anticipated a lead collapse that eventually arrived and wasn’t willing to accept the margin of error his bench brings to the game. Likewise, while the Warriors are putting up wins, they haven’t been all that comfortable for a few weeks now. They have romped for a quarter or two in these games, but the fourth quarter usually brings far more excitement - whether defending a lead or crawling back out of an early hole - than I would like. The potential for greatness is undeniable: the crushing defense, the scatterbrain offense that suddenly clicks together into something magnificent, the moments of clutch play to save the day. The problem remains, however: can this team keep it all up for 48 or even 36 minutes a night over the course of 82 games?
We could spend a month debating whether the skeptics are reading too much into these games or whether there’s really something to worry about. Fortunately, we don’t need to waste the words. The proof will be on the court over the next 7 games. The Warriors are running through a stretch of the schedule full of playoff contenders (Denver, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, San Antonio, Portland). If they demonstrate that they can beat these teams, they make the playoffs. My hopes and fears for this next stretch of put-up-or-shut-up basketball were on display Wednesday night at the Arena:
The Rise and Neglect of Monta - For most of the game against the Wolves, Monta could not miss from midrange. When he went up from 16 feet, you already knew the ball was going in. He continued to get open looks because every three or four plays he would blow past a Wolves defender who tried to guard his jump shot. They defender would then learn his lesson - following some amazing lay up or dunk - and go back to giving Monta an unchallenged look at the basket from mid-range. Other than a double team, this threat combo is nearly impossible to defend. When Monta is hot like he was Wednesday, he should be able to score at will. He landed a new career high, but with the game teetering in the middle of the fourth quarter, the team went away from him. Both Davis and Jackson settled for contested three pointers. Harrington and Azubuike followed and produced similarly meager results. When the ball finally found its way back to Monta, he delivered more points and stabilized the game. Monta isn’t the top dog on this team (although he’s increasingly producing like one). He won’t challenge Baron and Jax for the ball. It will fall to them to recognize that sometimes the loudest leadership statement is made by knowing when to step aside.
Mismatches Cut Both Ways - The Warriors’ defensive game is based upon mismatches and rotations. By deploying a team quick enough to allow most any W to guard someone on the opposing team, the Ws are free to engage in aggressive double teams and switches, forcing teams out of their comfort zone. The Warriors regularly let their fate ride on the bet that opponent’s slow big men can’t guard our fast small ones. So far, Nellie’s making money off this strategy. It led to a big lead in the first half against the Wolves. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always produce results. Al Jefferson didn’t do much against the Warriors’ bigger players, Andris and Mbenga. In the second half, when these players rotated off Jefferson due to defensive scrambles or went to the bench due to Nellie’s desire for scoring, Jefferson became largely unstoppable. The 19 rebounds don’t account for how frequently he got his hand on the ball in the second half. Setting aside the “Nellie needs to play big more” debate for a moment, the Warriors need at least to make sure that their biggest men end up under the basket when a shot goes up. Far too frequently Wednesday night Jefferson went for a rebound against Baron and Monta with Harrington, Jackson or Azubuike camped out by the three point arc. By distributing the ball through Antoine Walker the Wolves were able to discombobulate our defensive match-ups. Soon, it was the small quick guys getting pounded by the slow large ones. A certain amount of scramble and chaos is necessary to light the Warriors’ defensive fire. When teams keep their composure, however, as the Wolves were able to do for stretches in the second half, we need to be ready to regroup for the counterattack.
Slow Games Are Scary Games - When the Warriors can convince teams to run, things usually fall into place. We’re able to space the floor on offense and generate chaos on defense. When the game slows down, however, the Ws have serious trouble. The Wolves - and the incessant foul calls - provided a classic example on Wednesday. We saw the same thing last week against New Jersey. Unable to build any real momentum because of the disjointed nature of the game, the Warriors stopped moving on offense and settled from long range shots. They allowed the Wolves to impose the pace of the game upon them. Slower teams, by nature, have an easier time dictating tempo since it’s easier to walk up the ball and foul than run and swarm. Add a few bodies with which to pack the key on defense and slow / large teams are starting to develop a formula for knocking the Warriors out of their rhythm. Good teams dictate the terms of the game. The Warriors can do it for stretches, but haven’t reached the level yet when it’s on demand.
All this negativity following a win might be the clearest sign yet that I’m getting greedy as a fan. Still, with higher expectations come more opportunities for disappointment. The next 7 games will eliminate one of the shades of gray - lackluster wins over poor teams - that is currently clouding my perception of the team. If the team wins 4 of the next 7, no matter how, I’ll be thrilled. Even 3 would make me happy, just to prove I’m not getting greedy. Playing just slightly above the level of your competition is a fine strategy - so long as you adjust both upwards and downwards. We’ve seen down. Now it’s time to test whether the team can go up.
[By far the best part of an otherwise lackluster game was the people I shared it with. A special thanks to the Golden State of Mind crew for inviting me to their “Holiday Party” Wednesday night at the Oracle. If every December festivity featured a fajita bar and Monta defying gravity, the world would be a better place.]
Great analysis. Hopes that the Denver game at home isn’t a bust.
And Monta is the MAN. I’m liking his scoring prowess. It’s even better because he knows he isn’t very capable from beyond the arc so he always works for that better % shot.
That must be awesome to have a party with friends at Oracle.
It’s the faster team that usually determines the games pace. When the Warriors have the ball, the opponent has to run with them. Whether the slower team plays zone or not, the faster team can still advance and move the ball fast, penetrate quickly, or pull the trigger on long-range shots.
And when the slower team has the ball, pressure defense causes them to shoot faster to avoid prolonged exposure to steals and turnovers.
————————–
The upcoming stretch is going to be difficult not only because six games are against playoffs teams, but also because, except Houston, all other teams are at their peak.
San Antonio have both Duncan and Parker back from injuries, and it’s not going to be like the first game here when they played without Duncan. The Hornets and the Mavs are on a role, in Portland all the kids have suddently matured together, and all injured guys in Denver are playing together very impressive games recently.
——————————
But I’d rather watch a loss to the Spurs or Denver, than watch wins like this against the Wolves. For me, a win is not a win. A lousy win feels lousy. But a dramatic loss after a fun game feels dramatic and fun.
Allright. Bring on the Nuggets. I’ll be delighted to see AI and Melo playing their best, AI and Monta going at each other, Camby swatting it all over… win or lose, it’s going to be a fun game. I will sure enjoy it more than this lousy win over the Wolves.
At this point of the season, i think what matters is winning and not the performences. Against the Wolves the Ws were awuful especially their 3s (26%), but what matters is the win really. I think the Ws need to a make a trade to strengthen their bench and of course get rid of Pietrus. The next 7 games are crucial.
Adam, I share your concerns. Besides the Wolves zone, what worried me most is the usual weakness for the Warriors, rebounding. It seems that the Wolves got every rebound at both ends of the floor during the 4th quarter.
Trade Pietrus to Miami for Jason Williams - he could be Baron’s back up and we get rid of an overrated defender who can’t dribble….
I have the same concerns as everyone else. It has been extremely frustrating to see the W’s play with intensity to build up a big lead and the become complacent and let the worst team in the NBA come back. They are able to build the lead through motion offense and cuts to the hoop by off ball players which allows their penetration to either lead to easy layups or open jump shots. Why do they abandon this philosophy once they have a double digit lead? They start to coast and rely on one on one matchups while the other four players on the court become stagnant. Too many times have I seen them throw it down to Baron in the block or Captain Jack on the top of the key while everyone else stands on the wings. There are three common outcomes in this situation: (1) Jack/Baron makes an incredible individual play, (2) Turnover (3) Missed 3 pointer or long jumper. They need to continue to attack and build very comfortable leads against teams that should never give them trouble. Baron and the other starters should have rested the entire fourth quarter.
I understand Nellie is hesitant to play the younger players on his bench but we are setting ourselves up for failure if we are playing Baron 40+ minutes night in and night out. Nellie’s coaching of the Cleveland game was a telling sign. Nellie played his starters for almost the entire game and did not use his bench at all even when they had a comfortable lead throughout the game. WIthout taking into account Baron’s proneness to injury, we need to start to cut down Jack and Baron’s minutes because if they keep going at this pace, they will both be exhausted by February and their production will surely decline.
I was at the game last night and it seemed like everyone but Monta basically mailed it in. Even the crowd was pretty subdued. Although we won it did not inspire confidence. That said, when the Wolves got close and it was time to shut them down and score clutch in the final 3 minutes BoomDizzle did exactly that. Still, I would have liked to see them play a more crisp game to a bigger lead so we could see the rooks. At least we can chalk up a win.
As far as the trade thing I heard a rumor yesterday that interested me. You know how Bill Walsh used to have a theory that you did not draft/trade to address a need but rather to get the best possible athlete to build around? I heard that the Griz are going to have a fire sale and start over. Gasol’s contract is too big, but I heard that Mike Miller was also on the block. Not that we need another person at that position, but someone who can shoot like that would fit into Nellie-ball quite nicely. I have not watched him too much, but my impression is that he is not the greatest defender. I wonder though, if he would be what they wanted Bellinelli to be; Mike Miller can shoot the damn ball… Anyway, glad to get a win but I felt like the effort was pretty minimal and, thus to a comon argument in here, caused the starters to have to play too many minutes. 16-6 since Jax came back ain’t too bad though, here’s hoping they can keep it up and get 3-4 wins in the next 7 games…
It is becoming a growing concern that Nellie is wearing his guys out. How many games can you have where Jax, Ellis and Davis play 40 minutes. It seems that the bench has all but disappeared: is that intentional by design or a strong reflection of “no confidence”. Barnes played one of his worse games as a Warrior last nite: no reboudning, errant passes and clinkers from the field, as did Azubuike. Let’s hope that it was a “transient” occurrence.
I sensed that the Warriors sort of “shut down” and played to the level of their competition as of the mid second quarter. Adams point about a bigger slower team giving the Warriors trouble made the 4th quarter very painful to watch, especially a team that plays zone defense and defies the Warriors to shoot 3’s. Did anyone notice how the game seemed to turn around when the Timberwolves but Jaric on the floor and Ellis was unable to guard him.
Frankly, the Warriors were quite fortunate that the Timberwolves didn’t steal this one in the late 4th quarter. If not for some poor decisions by Jefferson and missed free throws, the Dubs might have blown the game.
Adam is correct: the next two weeks will give us a true reflection of how good the Warriors really are. I am concerned, however, that their short bench, as in the Utah series last Spring, is already starting to undermine the team…and boy, do they REALLY need a back up PG.
A fan I went to the game last nite with mentioned to me, the last time the “twin towers” played meaningful minutes together was in the Clipper win before Jax came back and before Mbenga was signed. She could not understand why Nellie didn’t put them in last nite. It was painful watching Mbenga attempt to simulate an offensive entity. I guess this goes to the ongoing debate of why Nelson is failing to develop his bench..but that is but an underlying them as the next 7-8 games unfold.
Why jump all over Pietrus? He isn’t getting any playing time.
This is the truth about the Warriors - when Baron and Jackson are on they’ll smoke the other team. And when they’re not on, as Adam said so cogently, they need to find someone else to be the hot hand. In one game it’ll be Al, or Monta or Barnes or KA. But don’t keep shooting threes when they’re not falling. Drive and dish. Be smart. Tere really is enough depth on this team, enough scorers to always find someone who’s on.
Maybe one night soon it’ll be Pietrus. But he’s not bringing the team down.
It’s the best players not knowing when to improvise and still be effective when their shot is off.
Great analysis.
Its amazing how well you can bring in the negative and positive to leave us with a balanced view.
I plan to sit back and see where these 8 games take us. I think (hope) it will be 5-3 with that last moment chance for 6-2. A win is a win at the end of the year. GO W’s. 1-0 and counting.
One last comment, as negative as a win like last night really could be, it is great to see Monta getting a chance to “win or lose” a game which will pay big dividends down the road. Actually I think that was part of Nelson’s game plan, run down the lead, turn it over to ME for the win. What a genius!
(TIC)
I have to quote my own comment from last week’s Wolves game and update it:
“The mid-range game Monta is unveiling is pure plutonium. It’s one thing to be quicker than most dudes, but when you can also outshoot them, simply by pulling up in their faces, okay now you are unstoppable. If you are quick enough to anticipate and beat SeaBass Telfair to spots, then buddy you are flyin’! Monta’s eyes are now beeming with that alchemic hoops enzym of confidence, supreme confidence.”
You see it. Again he embarrassed Telfair in vintage ‘and1′ fashion, when SeaBass tried to draw that pathetic charge and ME just slipped by for a lay-up. Time to say it: ME is who we (hoop hypsters) thought Telfair was. And facing Telfair seems to really pump ME up, like when he regularly exposes Barbosa.
Next . . .
I may not be NBA head coaching material, but I know this: Want to beat the Warriors? Throw on a zone. The W’s just panic, start hoisting, and then seem to rely on ME and Baron for rebounding.
Pitrus has to go. It’s over, this bird has flown. I like the guy, but I don’t think it would hurt chemistry too bad. Everyone can read the writing on the wall.
This may not be the most satisfying win, but you have to rack them up anyway you can, especially with the dogfight there will be for a playoff spot.
The minutes aren’t the only thing that concern me, the fact that the starters are always losing leads and Nellie hasn’t made an adjustment yet is also disconcerting. How many 20 point leads have we squandered because we’ve jacked up threes. A lot of it is probably fatigue. I really can’t understand Nellie’s stubborness in going to the bench when we play crappy teams that we have 20 point leads on. But yes a win is a win. This next stretch will tell a lot about our team. I do fear that we’re already at a disadvantage because of the huge minutes our starters have played. POB and Wright need to play in these situations.
I agree. Play B. Wright now!
Did you see him in the Piston game?
Hmmmm…. seven games against playoff competition. Happy with a 3-win first round exit, are you?
Not me.
I prefer to spend my money on a team that can actually, you know, beat solid teams to a .500+ clip. Otherwise, where’s the progress, Adam?
Sure, I see plenty of progress here and there. Monta and Biedrins, especially, continue to prove themselves to be the only future worth talking about no matter how predictable injured, distracted, streaky, and/or dirty the three captains continue to play.
Matt Barnes looks like he’s on the football field. Blocks in the back get called there, too. Pietrus is, quite simply, NOT an NBA player. The kids don’t play, Mbenga and Croshere are rent-a-stiffs, the Hudson signing was, inexplicably, WORSE than basketball minds could have predicted (!), and we just came very very close to losing to the league’s worst as the play in general has been steadily declining in several important areas.
So if the team cannot bring their fickle motivation for a winning seven game series against playoff contention, what will the next excuse be, Adam? I already put out the whole, good teams don’t need to risk too much in December, but this team looks primed for a fall as Utah and Houston come back and Portland’s young, DEEP legs continue to play all around good basketball.
Sans gimmicks.
Wasted words– way to criticize dissenters before they even respond. Very familiar. With or against, eh?
Oh yeah, lost two quarters to Minnesota last night, including a big fat terrible fourth quarter.
NO BENCH. NONE.
Not a contender, folks. Not at all.
Better hope they make the playoffs because, as preseason winds to a close over the next seven-eight games, it’s time to actually play some games that matter with the big boys.
5-9 against real NBA teams.
Updates throughout calendar change.
I also don’t understand why Mbenga gets PT at all. This guy has worse hands than Foyle. On defense he has such a slow reaction, is Nellie trying to prove his genius or something? Him getting minutes at all is confounding. He plays with the intelligence of Pietrus if he was a center.
C’mon Cohan, if I really ran this blog like the Bush administration you’d be filing the basketball version of a habeas petition (or, given the current legal landscape, attempting unsuccessfully to file).
Still, you’re right - they’re not wasted words, just less persuasive than what actually happens on the court. I still think this team’s volatility cuts both ways. Hopefully they can bring focus and intensity against better competition.
The bench? If I had to pick one thing I got totally wrong this off-season, it would be our so-called depth. Didn’t expect much from Pietrus, but Croshere and Hudson have ducked under my already low expectations. When Barnes and Azubuike both have off games, things get very rocky.
Anyway, 7 games: the proof will be on the court.
Now I can see why Azu and Barnsey fell off so many hoops radars- when they are bad, they are really bad. Still, whenever I get down on this Warrior team I just think back to the days of: Terry and Vontego Cummings, John Starks, Mookie, Chris Mills, Twardzik, Mugsy, etc. Barnes would be the star of that horrid group. Anyway, just a little reminder of how bad things can get.
Long live Vontego! How I miss Jim Gray singing his praises… Yes this team has a ways to go; there is some truth to Cohan’s grinchitude to be sure, but this was a great reminder of just how far the Warriors have come.
Mr. Cohan
Before the next 7 games come down the pipe, I wanted to hear what your analysis would be if the W’s do the folowing:
A) 0-7 thru 2-5
B) 3-4 or 4-3
C) 5-2 thru 7-0
I am assuming you would view options A) & B) clearly supporting your current view (4-3 may be difficult to state that).
But if option C occurs are ready to say preseason is over and warriors are for real, or will it be its too early still?
Frankly I thoutht your 5-9 statement was valuable and something I looked past. On the other hand, this team does have the feel of one that plays to the level of the competition. I think the next 7 will be telling.
Wanted to hear what you think (Mainly about option C).
Croshere’s been hurt - but when he’s played he’s showed a nice touch, a little muscle, some rebounding. If he’d stay healthy they’d be fine because he can sub for anyone other than Baron.
When was he disappointing other than by being absent? Remember, they signed him for nothing pretty much. A great ninth man.
Chris Cohen
I agree with you totally! or stated another way, there is really little to disagree with in what you said if one has hopes of viewing the Warriors as being a solid playoff contender, rather than just “entertaining”.
I fully agree with your comments about Barnes and Pietrus.
Otis - Fair point about Croshere, but I’m judging his ability to help by his actual contributions, not potential ones but for injuries. I think he could be a nice piece of the puzzle if he was available night in / night out. His back, unfortunately, has other ideas.
We need regular production from our bench. Right now, we’re only getting inconsistency. Ninth men in suits do us no good.
Here’s a question. I too found Cohan’s 5-9 stat a valuable contribution and a bit of an eye-opener. What happens if you do not include Jax’s suspension in that? I suspect it is still around .500 but am curious… Thanks…
Paper this morning stated that Ben Wallace was possibly entering the trade rumor mill. I have no idea about his contract, and not so sure he would fit with Nellie, but I thought I would throw it out there.
Slimman
It becomes 5-5 without Jax (2 losses to Utah, loss to Detroit, and Dallas).
The simple truth is this - the Warriors win because of youth, team speed, and mostly chemistry. They make the other team feel slow, dowdy and old. And anyone who comes to the team or wants minutes cannot be any of those three. Wallace is kinda old right now. Or at least he’s playing old. I’d rather give more minutes to the rookie.
Look at Chicago - they’ve got talent, youth, speed and Wallace and they kinda suck.
“I prefer to spend my money on a team that can actually, you know, beat solid teams to a .500+ clip. ”
I wonder how much “money” you’ve spent watching our boys other than your basic cable bill.
This is where we thought we would be going into the season: fighting for one of the three bottom playoff spots, nothings changed. I’m not saying there isn’t reason to worry but did we expect anything else?
We Are Who We Thought We Were. A streaky bunch of loose canons who can look unstoppable on one night and hopeless the next. Even the most optimistic fan realized we were not in the upper echelon of teams with the likes of San Antonio and Phoenix.
Rome wasn’t built in a day. This is only Nellie’s second season so just like his Dallas tenure, it’ll take a few years to complete this team into a reliable, constant force in the Western Conference.
Only one team can win the Championship each year. Every one else goes home disappointed. All you can truly hope for in a reclamation project like ours is excitement, desire, and progress. I think this team provides all of the above so I don’t mind spending MY money watching this group.
Sorry for the double post, work network kind of sucks.
That Dallas loss was without Monta I believe.
What stinks is that when we had the 22 point lead. Nelson took off Jax and BD but none of the rookies got any time. Instead we saw Mbenga try and shoot a couple jumpers.
DJ shooting j’s was the very essence of what he should never do. I like the space he eats up, but he is a HOF-stiff. But the worst part is:
Watching BWright sit like this reminds me of Gilbert’s rookie year, when Musclehead thought it better to tie his professional fate to a man named Bimbo than AgentZero.
The BWright situation has also forced me to reopen the Webber V. Nellie case of 1994. Webber, after 2 years of college was ready to roll, but again the Warriors’ coach tied his fate to some-kind-of-mental game/hazing ritual over tangible talent and got can’d for it.
Then again, BW is no Webber or even Gilbert, or is he?
Panic–
Bimbo was nowhere near the W’s in Gilbert’s rookie year. Coles was thankfully banished from Oakland in ‘99.
‘01-’02 was the first and last year of the Larry Hughes at point-guard experiment, which of course failed miserably.
But point taken, Musselhead was an idiot, and B. Wright needs to play.
Thank you Rather Be Lit, and by the way — me too.
I admit my research was a bit lacking, but I’m drawing from pure emotional recall and obviously the name Bimbo had to be used over Larry — it’s funnier –however inaccurate. Thankfully, “comment sections” seem to be edited/fact-checked/scrutinized more thoroughly than most documents drafted by the current presidential regime.
P.s. The ‘99 team has scarred me for life.
Panic Button,
I posted early as well that Monta’s ability to hit the mid range jumper this year makes all the difference. A defender can take away the drive, or take away the outside shot. If you can only do one you can be defended. That was Monta last season. Now that he can hit the jumper outside, he becomes a true scorer.
Mr Mully,
We are who we thought we were. Well, not really. We are fightting for a playoff spot, as expected. But over the summer, didn’t we all expect this to be a deeper team, 9-12 deep with everyone making a contribution? I’m shocked and disappointed at the rotation, or lack of rotation. 3 high 1st round picks chalking up dnp game after game.
I like the starting 5. I think right now with Monta playing so well that BD, Monta, Jacks, AH and AB is our best group. At least we have had some stability there.
But beyond those 5, there is too much mad scientist and not enough structure. Players don’t have roles. They can’t get comfortable. They don’t know if they’re going to play, when they’re going to play and what position they’re going to play. The young guns get no PT. If you can’t get POB, Bell, or BW a few minutes against the t-wolves (at least one of them, not all at once) with a 22 point lead early in the game, when can you get them in? Many coaches have substitution patterns that the players can follow.
The strange thing is why ownership and management allows this? Usually there is some influence on the coach by ownership and management as to players and PT IF and when it is obvious the coach refuses to give the young ones PT. I know you want to let the coach do his job and decide on PT, but there does come a point if the coach makes no attempt at young player development where most ownership and GM’s will step in and tell the coach, you need to get these guys some PT, period. You can run the show, but we want these guys developed ON THE COURT. Wonder where Mullin and Cohan are on this issue of Nelson refusing to play the 1st round picks.
I’m as confused as everyone else why Mbenga gets PT while POB sits, although I do like his defense, it seems POB can block pretty well too and POB’s mid range shot looks better than Mbenga’s to me.
Tired of seeing opposing big men have there way with us why POB and BW sit.
Point about AH on the perimeter is a two edged sword. When he’s hot he’s pretty unstoppable by the typical 4 and 5 he may be matched up against. But it does take him away from the basket and hurts rebounding.
I think we are who we thought we were, except for about 5-6 players who I expected to be part of the consistent rotation that now sit on the bench.
The reason that Monta disappeared in the fourth quarter was that he lost his aggressiveness. At crunch time he defers to everybody else. I think he is a clutch performer but doesn’t have enough confidence - yet - to try and take over a game near the end. Nelson needs to push him to be more aggressive in pressure situations - but Nellie seems to be fine with Baron and Jackson going one on one at crunch time and throwing up a bunch of threes. I hate that. Ball movement just dies. Certainly the Warriors are better than they used to be when the game gets tight, and they seem to find a way to win when it’s close, more often than not. But if Monta stays active and looks for his shot, our chances are a lot better.
I think these games would be good ones to give the rookies more time because if we lose a few it wouldn’t be unforgivable.
If we’d lost to Minny it would have been.
Let’s see B Wright go head to head with Duncan for a few minutes. Why not?
Here’s how I’d structure minutes if I was the coach:
BD 36
Monta 36
Jacks 36
AH 30
AB 30
AZ 24
Barnes 12
Pietrus 12
BW 6
POB 6
Bell 6
234
This would be a starting point. Yes, there’s 6 more minutes that could go to the night’s hot player.
Things could be adjusted a bit based on who is hot and who is not, on fouls etc. I’d work in Mbenga and Croshere as needed, if AB gets into foul trouble and if POB isn’t cutting it, but those guys probably aren’t part of the long term plans although I have been impressed at times with Croshere. I give AZ more minutes because I think he has incredible potential, and if not for Monta’s emergence would be a starter.
I’d watch AH, he tends to play hot or cold, play him more when hot and less (a little when cold).
I’m still of the opinion that we have too many quality players at too few positions 2&3. I’d like to see either Pietrus or Barnes traded for a decent back up PG, because we won’t get a quality PF for either, but I think we could get a PG.
I’d have at least the outline of a set rotation, with some consistency as to who starts, who comes off the bench and when, and some structure as to positions. I’d reserve the right to adapt to the game and the situation, but at least early in the game I’d stick to my preplanned rotation and then adjust later in the game based on what I see.
Of course, I’d stay open to changing the starting 5 if someone played there way into more minutes, or out of more minutes, or if there were injuries. But at least I’d have a plan to get guys in and a deeper rotation.
What do you guys think?
Adam, (post # 17)
You are not alone in having high hope for the Ws deep rotation/roster this off season.
This begs the question that we do not have any clue of seeing talents or talents are not being used appropriately?
ChuckC - Post #37 - Sounds like a plan to me.
Craig
This is speculation, but I really think that ME is very comfortable and confident doing his thing (always), but as a game wears on, BD and SJ retain control of the game.
You don’t want to see ME take control away from BD or SJ, but you do want him to always step up. Big difference. As Adam said I think BD and SJ didn’t really want to relinquish control of the game to ME because of their own confidence. Its a double edge sword with BD, but sometimes you want him to take the Kidd approach and feed, feed, feed until the ME spigot runs dry, but it really isn’t his nature. The flip side is BD usually pushes through bad stretches to hit the winner as well.
My rambling point is that I would not put this on ME. I think he does a great job of taking what he can get without taking away from BD (& SJ). As the season wears on BD may treat ME more like himself.
ChuckC,
I am with you on # 37. We have been singing this tune so much so often that it bothers many posters here. But, you are doing great. Keep it up.
I would reduce either Barnes or Pietrus PT just because I think they play very similar game.
I would give BW about 10 min or so per game.
One thing I see also, unless Nelson changes his tactics, it is very difficult for players to come off the bench and be productive. He demands instant contribution or go back the bench; so far, I only see AB responded well to that. Not many players can be that effective at turning on/off instantly; even AZ and AH can’t do that consistently.
I posted the December numbers against good competition for those asking: 2-5 vs. playoff teams and 2-4 vs. +.500 teams.
Jackson sure did tire quickly… or it’s not fair to continue to talk about the 0-6 pre-Jackson as meaningfully meaningless besides just lame play to open the season against stronger teams.
Seriously, Jackson didn’t change our fate against Utah et al in the playoffs and the Warriors’ continued struggles against legitimate, deep, interior-staffed playoff teams from either conference says all I need to know about how to gauge the Warriors’ comprehensive status amongst good NBA teams with the tools to compete for the long haul.
Seven games. Winning record or time to reconsider staffing needs. Aggressively and comprehensively.
‘Tis the season and Pietrus is just about mobile.
Maybe others less frequently considered are creeping toward the door, as well. Open the brains up, folks. No time to rest on fairweather laurels perched atop consistently inconsistent/absentee heads in the Wariror Chem Lab.
Pbob, post # 40.
Right on.
The W’s have three first rounders sitting on the bench. They were drafted 8th, 9th and 18th but this guy Marco Belinelli is one of the premier players Europe has got in his time.
But the coach said, these guys aren’t ready. Then, why did they drafted this guys if they weren’t ready yet? I know that the W’s is trying to build a team. But it looks like, they’re building their team from rejects and scraps but so happens, these rejects and scraps are doing very well. GREAT!
Isn’t it best to build a team from brand new materials and/or complement them with the best that you can have? Of coarse Nelson was never been wrong and that’s easy for him to prove that he would never be wrong.EVER. These neophytes won’t see a glimmer of PT because Nelson said that they aren’t ready for his building. I fully agree. But, is DJ Mbenga his kind of material that is ready to play in the NBA? Why not trade these first round draftees for the likes of Mbenga or Croshere or Hudson that Nelson can use in their team building process and make them stronger? Theres no sense on wasting these talents on the bench if Nelson can’t make use of them. Remember, Nelson can never be wrong.
Let me start by saying that this is my first time posting but I’ve been an avid follower of this blog since last season. It’s one of the things I need to read each day. I am very impressed by Adam and all the posters. In contrast, if you go to message boards on ESPN and FoxSports, most of the posts are juvenile/ uneducated remarks with no real value. That said, let me go into what I really wanted to contribute to the discussion.
A lot of posters have complained about Nellie not going to his bench enough, even when they have a seemingly comfortable 20-point lead. He has gone on record saying that he would love a 9-man rotation. But in the very tight Western conference, I don’t think he has much choice but to play only the players that give them the best chance at winning.
If you watched that last game against the T-wolves, you’ll know that he did go to his bench around the middle of the 2nd quarter. Where did that leave the Warriors? It left them with less offensive options than they’re used to (hence the ugly Mbenga jumpers), allowed the Wolves to chip away at the lead, and subsequently gave the opposing squad enough confidence that they can make a comeback (which they did).
If Minnesota had made a successful comeback, the Warriors would have lost the game in the 2nd quarter, when Nellie was experimenting, and the bench (albeit not the Rookies) got their shot.
So do you want to see more playing time for the bench, or see more wins? Right now, I don’t think we can ask for both. This is why I am anxiously anticipating a roster move to better the situation.
ChuckC - As a coach, you have a solid grasp of the game. As a coach, your own coaching style is often interjected into your criticism of Nelson.
The Warriors had an endless parade of traditional coaches come in and fail miserably. The only modicum of success the Warriors and their long suffering fans have enjoyed over the twenty years has been under the leadership of Nellie and his unique, unconventional, and out of the box coaching style.
It’s universally agreed last year’s unparalleled success with a young and flawed roster could have only happened under the guidance of an unorthodox, forward thinking coach like Nellie. Why would you insist on handicapping his ability to implement his against-the-grain tactics by imposing a traditional coaching strategy?
Yes, we’re all Dubs fans and we all want to see the team excel. We all thought we were getting a deeper bench but let’s look at this from the Scott Skiles perspective. The Warriors aren’t as good as we all hoped/wished/believed them to be. They’re not even who we thought they were!
While Ellis, Baron and Jackson are better than they’ve ever been, and Azubuike / Biedrins are continually improving talents, the rest of this team consists of inconsistent players with little value throughout the league. At this point, that includes O’Bryant. The only players that aren’t getting any burn that should have upside are Wright and Belinelli, so of course we’re all clamoring to see them. The tease of the unknown is always irresistible, and using a traditional rotation style would get them on the court. But…
Traditional didn’t make this team relevant again; it didn’t spawn “We Believe” on an unprepared NBA and didn’t shock the Mavericks in the first round. Traditional isn’t what’s behind the Warriors and their largest jump in season ticket sales (Dubs passed Utah a week or so ago, no wonder management isn’t backseat coaching Nellie) and with this roster, traditional isn’t even going to have a chance against the Spurs, Celtics, Magic, Jazz, Lakers. Meanwhile, the unconventional approach is filling the stands, selling ads and creating a buzz. It might not beat the Spurs, Celtics, Magic, Jazz or Lakers but it’s entertaining enough to make you want to watch them try and that’s a lot more than can be said for a traditional approach.
Addendum:
If McGrady misses the Houston game and the Warriors win, it will be difficult to say anything terribly conclusive about the game besides, “Yes, Houston sucks this year.”
Houston relies upon McGrady’s offense to complement Yao’s far more than the Warriors rely upon any one player to complement others– Warriors are surely a top-scoring team by virtue of philosophy and style, if nothing else.
But McGrady and Yao on the OLD defensive stalwart Houston team was more than enough. Now that Houston is a shambles under Adelman and McGrady is hurt yet again, that’s the gimme game in this string.
Repeat: GIMME. Not a challenge if a team is for real.
So I’ll revise my estimate: 1-6
Post # 46 by JustPuked … I second that
Co GSW
First, I wouldn’t pull AB, Jacks and BD all at the same time if I’m rotating guys. That was just a coach inexperienced at rotating players making a rookie mistake, even if it was coach Nelson. Rather, you pull your starters one at a time, and put one rookie or back up player in with the other starting 4, and rotate. Otherwise you end up with no leadership, no continuity, and Mbenga taking consecutive shots. Maybe pulling 3 starters at once was Nelson’s way of saying “see this doesn’t work” but really we all know better. That’s not how it’s done unless you’re trying to intentionally sabatoge a rotation.
Second, if players have a rotation system, with some consistency about the rotation and players, they will improve over time. There needs to be some consistency. It has to be done not as an experiment but over time.
I couldn’t disagree more that it’s a choice between a deeper rotation or winning. I think you can do both, have a deeper rotation, and win the same or more number of games. Of course, it has to be done in a way that keeps a core a players in the game and then subs out one or at most two at a time.
The other factor is that BD runs this team. No matter who is in, when he is out the team doesn’t run the same. If I’m going to play the 1st round youngsters, I try to plan my rotation so that BD is on the court the first few times I get one in the game. When BD sits, I put more established players in the game, for example
Monta, AZ, Jacks, AH, AB could play when BD sits, or sub in Pietrus and or Barnes for AH or Jacks for example.
In summary, you have to be intelligent about your rotations, and coach Nelson taking 3 starters out and letting Mbenga shoot jumpers isn’t what any of us had in mind.
Let’s be totally and perfectly clear about the Warriors current group of Centers (and no, I don’t include Harrington’s 1-in-8 games application or Croshere’s hair in this):
Patrick O’Bryant is hands down the best jump shooter or shooter of any type at the 5.
That unfortunate win against the Twolves could have ended in a disappointing loss after leading by 22 points. This gives us the message that we are still not that close to being considered or thought of as an elite team.
It only amuses me to read some of the posts in this blog implying or even talking about playoffs and championship. Of course I can understand our sentiment and enthusiasm as fans if not die-hard Warriors fans.
But we have to be realistic as to the ability and capability of our team to reach the playoffs.
Up to this writing the Dubs still have not solve the problems of playing time, and the right distribution of minutes among the starters and the second stringers and the bench warmers. If we can solve this problem right now even pending any immediate future trades, we could have a chance for the playoffs.
Right now, the way we are playing, our chances for the playoffs are quite slim considering the improved performance of the New Orleans and the Portland.
And if the Rockets and the Jazz come back to their usual form, we would be out of luck.
My friends, this is the reality. The Dubs have to do something to address the aforementioned problems.
Management and especially the coach have to wake up to reality and have to make the necessary adjustments NOW for their players to implement. We have good players - capable of winning games - it only needs the right fine tuning….
JustP
You really summed it up well. Thank you
I was definetly in the summer camp that expected a solid 10 rotation with the hot hands getting more time. The Dubs were going to run 48 minutes of non-stop havok. Boy were we wrong something bigtime.
Last nite as the lead got up to 22 I was mildly hopeful we’d see some Wright and Bells playtime.
I was stunned to see BD, Jax and AB taking a seat together at the same time mid 2nd qtr. I was thinking Nellie is going to open up this game! Barnett was saying that Nellie was looking for a second team that could step it up and let him rest his starters. It took about 2 blinks for the subs to drop a 22 pt lead to 15. Sending Jax right back in didn’t stop the bleeding as the Dubs made one stupid overly agressive pass after another. One blink later, BD was back in. So much for that experiment. Forget about seeing the kids for another night (or week).
POB must have either really pissed Nellie off or is totally sucking in practise. I know he stunk his last chance on the court but come on Nellie. He was the great surprise of training camp, preseason and early season (when he got on the court). If sucking on the court for 5 minutes is the rule to not be seen again, the Dubs won’t be able to suit up a starting 5. Hopefully after Mbenga’s excruciating 9 mins against the TW’s, Nellie will consider one of his young bigs for some PT.
Ed,
MP said, “I’m a 2 or 3, not a 4″. That’s like putting the wrong shoes on the wrong foot.
Response to Post # 49 by ChuckC…
“… I wouldn’t pull AB, Jacks and BD all at the same time… ”
Yes, I have to agree with this. I can’t remember Nellie ever having both BD and SJ on the bench at the same time (other than end-of-game) blow-outs. I knew somebody was going to point this out in response to my original post.
“…letting Mbenga shoot jumpers isn’t what any of us had in mind.”
I can’t believe it is also what Nelson had in mind :-))
Personally, I would have preferred for Nellie to wait for a big 4th quarter lead before making such bold experiments. But “bold” is what Nellie is and is the reason behind his, and this current group of Warriors success. Similar to what JustPuked previously stated, if Nellie’s Warriors were conventional and safe, we wouldn’t be this excited (and anxious) about them.
Even the rest of the nation has taken notice. J.A. Adande of ESPN.com said “They are the single greatest argument for ordering League Pass”.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=adande_ja&page=Warriors-071207
In any case, my feeling is that if management makes one key roster move or 2, such that allows Nellie to play a deeper rotation, yet still keep this same high-octane style, everybody will be happier.
Chuck C you definitely got it right.
Co GSW just look at the way our team plays when we have 20 point leads against weak teams. We sit around the outside and hoist threes, that makes me crazy to watch that. We have absolutely not put our youngsters in a position to succeed or even contribute. I dont see the reasoning or Nellie not trusting his bench while we squander another 20 point lead as our team chucks up more threes with absolutely no recourse. And of course we see a lot of dumb plays as well. I don’t trust some of our starters when they’re tired. They need rest. How many guys have had career games against our guys. Nellie is one stubborn guy. But yes let’s see what happens these next 7 games. We haven’t had a quality win in a while.
Nellie was just on KNBR saying it would be nice ot have a good young center to build around.
And that the team lacks intelligence (he was talking about passing and scenario intelligence, maybe something akin to BB IQ, and said that only Baorn can pass creatively).
And that a player who can rebound but is also a good player would be useful.
Genius.
Pulling out your major players at the same time is a classic Pig Work.
Hopefully, the Warriors will continue to disregard the doomsayers and keep winning. I agree with Adam regarding the next 7 games - I’d be thrilled with 4 wins and happy with 3, especially since 4 are road games, including a B2B.
For those about to throw themselves on the sword, though, it’s just 7 games. It’s a useful mid-season litmus test, but nothing more. We don’t have to be over .500 against the best teams in the league to improve on 42-40. Our most likely path to a better record is by winning more on the road, and so far we are doing that.
I also expected a deeper bench this year, but did not expect so many injuries. For those currently criticizing Barnes, keep in mind he’s playing with 2 injured hands. I didn’t expect the new guys to add much, especially early in the season, so Austin and Troy’s situations have had a big impact on the roster’s actual depth. Most our injury issues have been with our “depth” players.
People who thought the team would be much improved this year may be under-estimating the impact of losing Richardson. Yes, he was redundant and I agree with the trade in the long run. Nevertheless, he was an important part of this team, and Wright is not going to replace his production this year.
People who will label this season a disappointment if we don’t get past the 2nd round of the play-offs this year may well be disappointed. We caught a team that we match up well against at the right time last year. More reasonable goals would be to win more on the road, have a better season record, resolve our rotations at the 1 and 5 spots, and get more from the end of the bench.
Petaluman = subaculta
If we are talking basketball, let’s talk basketball. Let’s put aside how this organization is making money.
Effren:
What?
Blah blah blah. I know everything. You’re all lame homers. Booooooooo. Blah blah blah.
“If we are talking basketball, let’s talk basketball. Let’s put aside how this organization is making money.” -Effren
Of course, Cohen says, “What!?!?”
__
Nellie thinks it would be nice to have a good, young center to ignore/underdevelope/haze. And I love Nellie, but come on.
If you’re POB- you hear that quote and really sigh hard. Deservedly so.
If I’m Biedrins, I start making my decision now:
Who will pay me, play me, and not jerk me and my teammates around as he toddles off into Care Facility Retirement?
Because that’s the dude I’d like to play for.
Whatever! I love my Warriors.
Petaluman, if you defend Barnes’ mediocre performance because of his injury on both hands, then why did Nelson play him? Why not play BWright or Bellinelli? or POB?
#57
So coach Nelson wants KG or Tim Duncan. Well maybe not even duncan, maybe doesn’t have the perimeter game, ball skills etc that coach Nelson wants. Not sure he can get up and down the court for 40 minutes pg either. Well maybe not KG either. Well, I’m sure he’d take either.
Is there someone beside Dirk that fits coach Nelson’s prototype for a center? And is Dirk really a center, or a tall 3 like AH? Is AH the closest thing on this team to a coach Nelson center? I think he is.
I’d not only feel bad hearing coach Nelson say we don’t have a good young center to build around if I was POB, but what position does AB play?
I think AB will resign. I think the W’s will keep him. But if I were him I’d wonder if this offense maximizes my value or minimizes it? I’d wonder if the coach appreciates what a good developing young center can bring to a team. I’d wonder what it would like to play for a team that called my number 10-20x per game in the low post, instead of as an afterthought when all else fails.
The problem is coach Nelson is looking for a player that doesn’t exist. You know, that 7 footer with a great low post game, great handles, smart, great passer, who can run the fast break and shoot the 3 at 40%. Ok Dirk exists minus the great low post game. You know, that guy? I don’t know, does that guy exist?
I think you have to settle for someone that can run, play defense, board, and score in the low post. What don’t you get? A guy that can shoot the 3. A guy that can handle the ball like a PG and pass like one too. I think Dirk ruined coach Nelson because guys 7 ft tall with skills and a great 3 point shot are hard to find. Although Dirk’s low post game is nothing to write home about.
I can see why we offered so much for KG. I still think with KG the W’s are immediate championship contenders even if we had to give up AB and Monta. Coach Nelson only wants to run one big anyway. We’d have BD, AZ, Jacks, AH and KG. Wow. Championship!
Well, I’m not Nelson, but the most likely reason would be that he thought Barnes would give him more of whatever he was looking for than the guys you mentioned. Some fans like guys who will play injured - even call them warriors.
Cohan,
We are all homers… thats what true fans do, they cheer for the home team, their team. I get ticked off when they play like crap, but I’ll take the wins.
The last post of Nov you predicted a 6-12 record for DEC… I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant a 6-11. I predicted a 12-5… yes an optimistic prediction, but hey I’m a lame homer.
The dubs record for DEC is 9-5. They still have 3 games left, there is a chance (albeit a small chance) they go 12-5 for DEC. But there is still a chance they have a 12-5 Dec, and absolutely ZERO chance of going 6-11. I can understand fans that have doubts about their team, but I have serious doubts that you are really a dubs fan.
Why complain about beating the bad teams?T he W’s play well enought to win in games they are supposed to win and some that they aren’t. Interesting little tidbit. I looked at the games they’ve lost since the first 6 games and found it interesting: @boston,Orlando,@Lakers,@Portland, @Detroit, @New Jesey.
The warriors have gone 17-6 and the losses are all reasonable against playoff caliber teams; 5 of them on the road.
Yes the next 7 games will be a test, but I’m liking the results I’ve seen so far. What I like best about the team is the “chemistry”. They REALLY look like they like each other. I think that’s rare in pro sports and I hope management doesn’t mess it up.
I can’t believe I’m defending CC, but I do believe he’s a fan. He’s just appears to be guilty of unrealistically low expectations. It’s like, after being dumped by 12 consecutive girlfriends, he can’t believe the 13th won’t do the same.
it is amazing how sharply this board is divided on Nelson and his use of the bench.
for those of us in favor of a deeper rotation and some growth from the young players, we are not being pessimistic about the team or doomsayers like others are suggesting.
we are merely using each game as an example of how Nellie could have worked the youngsters into the rotation for the greater good of the team.
How would jerry sloan know that derron williams was a stud if he benched him his rookie season in favor of a more stockton type point guard (or never drafted him at all). how would phil jackson know that bynum could get to the next level without letting him go head to head with shaq and gain real game experience on christmas day no less.
JP, you are on point with your observations and even today correctly observed that Nelson is the only coach to make the Dubs relevant over the last 20 years. That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t make mistakes and i see chris webber as an example of that. the dubs could have been dominant in the mid 90’s with spree, mullin, hardaway, and cwebb if nelson hadn’t dogged him out so much his rookie year that he demanded a trade. as much of a genius as nellie is, he makes mistakes too. and one mistake he is making this year is not giving his younger players more playing time.
ChuckC
A couple of comments on your PT breakdown. I looked at player +/- ratings and past champions.
1 In concept, the more players you can play the better, as long as it does not affect winning!
2 Looking at the championship teams of the past three decades they played their (2-3) star players between 38-41 minutes, no less, most near 39-40 - Kobe was 41. Bulls, Lakers old/new, Spurs, etc, etc. The only exceptions were Shaq (at Miami), and Duncan 1 year (I believe both of those were due to injury). If thats the model then BD and SJ will need to play 38 min, and probably 40, and ME may fall into that too.
3. Barry played 40 minutes/gm in 1975.
4.The rookies have played in a total of 25 games and only had a positive +/- rating in 7 of 25 games. (3 of 14 for MB and 4 of 11 for BW). On average the Warriors lose 1/2 a point per minute each of them are on the court. In your scenario above, the cost of playing the 2 rookies 6 minutes per game is -6 points. More time, more cost. MBel has simply awful numbers.
5 The cost of rookie play time would be about 5 games to date. I still contend that if Nellie didn’t play MBel in the Detroit home game, the W’s may have held on to that win. He learn his lesson?
5 POB and Mbenga’s numbers are very similar(both are slightly negative and have positive games in half they play). So whether it is Mbenga or POB its a push. Pick one Nellie.
6 Last nights game was a solid 9 man rotation. The starters didn’t play more than the model for championship teams (38 minutes), and W’s could not afford the cost of playing the rookies (6 points —> Loss). So what do you change?
Summary of bench beyond the normal 9:
TH: Showed potential but an injured bust
AC: Great when healthy, and played.
POB: For 18 months a bust, 3-4 good games against weak opposition, suddenly a budding star?
MBel: Has been a huge disappointment. Sure lets lose a bunch of games to gain experience at 6 minutes a pop to see if he can develop.
BW: I like him but he has only played against real (the weak warrior post players) competition in practice, and has not faired that well. His time will come, but don’t lose games over it.
The W’s are clearly not good enough to support a rookie training program, as much as we would all love it. I get the criticism of a player like MP, because we all clearly see what kind of player he is.
Nelson and the staff know what kind of players POB, BW, MBel they have seen them 10000 times more than us. How does the few snippets we have seen justify the laceration of a hall of fame coach’s ability based on almost no information. Baffling. Oh yeah, Nelson would clearly sit talented players so he can maintain his “No Rookie PT” rule that JP and a few others proved doesn’t exist, if the player is ready.
CHuckC you obviously know basketball an apparently coach(ed). How often did you get criticized by some parent or player when they simply do not realize the significant difference between various players talent levels and the affects on games. Something only a coach knows. Your criticism crosses that commonly abused line that I would assume you know.
Petaluman,
Ha ha ha… OK, I see your point of view. That’s the funniest analogy I’ve read on this blog. It’s been a while since I’ve actually laughed that hard.
On the PT issue, here’s my take.
I would like Nellie to play the young guys more, but he’s playing for today. What I mean is that he wants as many wins as he can get and he wants to get as far as he can this year, and maybe next year.
He’s not playing for the future. He’s not looking competing with the elite teams 3-4 years from now. If he were thinking 3-4yrs into the future, he would be playing the young guys a little more to get them used to his system. Bottom line is Nellie is committed to this season, maybe another… but beyond that is probably another coach’s problem.
1. I think there may have been some high-jackery of the Cohan moniker again. I thought this time was pretty funny. But I’m an easy audience for Cohan antics, admittedly, and a clear narcissist.
BUT
2. I am definitely the guy who predicted 6-8 wins through early January and, clearly, those numbers were off. The games that obviously threw the prediction off:
1. Miami whooped us for three quarters and should have won. We eked one out when Riley screwed around with small ball in further pursuit of ping pong balls.
2. Duncan out. Who knew? Nuff said.
3. Lakers can stomp us into the ground but we got a two point win on our home court. Love to see this in the playoffs, would absolutely never bet on it unless Kobe came down with pneumonia and missed games 1-6.
4. Ahhhh… the Cleveland game. I should have seen the signs of their total demise sooner. I knew they had significant problems on offense and a really inept overall coaching philosophy (though a defensive program as good as any that I talked myself into believing would hold the Warriors in check), knew their roster was total junk, knew LeBron was making an MVP push while contemplating pricing real estate near Brooklyn. But no.
So, to review, I don’t know everything and never actually claimed to and I am a rampant Warriors homer who appreciates great play. I liked what I saw against San Antonio sans Duncan this month…. umm. That’s it. And there are legitimate, serious qualifications of that game on the table you can choose to acknowledge or keep your head buried in the sands of belief.
Next seven will be tough.
- They split with Denver
- Beat Houston, with or w/o McGrady… if he plays, he will not be 100%, so the dubs have the advantage
- They split with the Mavs, spurs, NO, Portland.
My prediction is 4-3 in the next seven. I hope they actually beat the Mavs, NO, and Portland. We’ve got the Mavs number, we’re desperately competing against the Hornets and Blazers… those are teams we HAVE to beat.
I’m not completely sold on the Blazers. Yes they’re on a hot streak right now, but they are being carried by a very good Roy, a decent Aldridge & Outlaw. They’re all young and inexperienced. Once they face adversity, they’ll start to fold.
The most important games will be the Den, NO & Port games. We are competing with those teams for a playoff spot… we need to be able to beat them.
Forget fatigue as a criticism of Nellie’s rotation or lack thereof. These guys were born to play basketball EVERY DAY and would be doing it probably even if the NBA didn’t exist. It’s all about pride. Pride in being better than the opponent. Pride in improving one’s performance. Pride in having the best team in a particular game. The Dubs starting five are not “tired” and in desparate need of a “blow” after playing 48 minutes. Although it would be desireable to use the bench more frequently, I doubt if fatigue enters into most coach’s bench decisions as much as foul situation, matchups, shot selection/efficiency, etc.
I’m not happy that Nellie is playing the starting five without involving his bench more often, but so far the bench has not been productive and wins have still been coming for the most part. Nellie is not confident in his bench and said after last night’s game with the T-Wolves that he’s not comfortable with the team’s play/consistency and that their record is probably better than they deserve. His quandry is that so far injuries have been few and there have been relatively few times his starters have not done well enough to win most games. It ain’t pretty, but at this point one can’t argue with the results. Thus Adam and Nellie both no doubt see the next 7 games as pivotal to determine what to do next. Continue playing the core starters? Throw out some of the so called starters and start over again? Trade to improve? Throw the young subs to the “wolves” for awhile to gain them experience and see if this shakes up the team enough to make the next step. If an injury happens to a key starter, a sub will get a big chance to contribute and perhaps that’s what it will take to shake things up. Adversity is what makes for a substantial change. We are all for the most part so comfortable with the Dubs record that few want change to happen. Only when things get tough will the coaches and fans accept the reality and demand/produce change - hopefully for the better. What to do? It’s time to wait and see. I agree, the next 7 games are pivotal. Will the Dubs rise to the challenge (like they did against the Cavs after a disappointing loss) or will they go the other way? It will be fascinating to see this beautifully interesting team and coach face the challenge. Hope that they are up to the task.
One thing was very obvious last night. When Nellie pulls AB, things go to hell in a hurry. AH is only effective against a particular matchup involving a relatively slow “big” like Yao. AB is very quick and although he has limited post moves, his presence and quickness are too valuable on both offense and defense that he has to stay in the game unless in deep foul trouble. The Dubs were horrible last night at rebounding. AH disappeared for most of this game - unlike against the Cavs. Most of the time it was AB ALL ALONE under the board with everyone else racing like crazy to the other end of the court. On offense, nobody rebounds their shot, they just bombed away and ran. When the Dubs play this way, they deserve to see a team like the T-Wolves climb back into the game and likely win when the 3s aren’t falling. The team has more lessons to learn.
I’m not discounting Portland yet and know they have some very good pieces in place as well as a good young coach with a developing, tight community of talented youth who have played together for a while now.
Many thought they’d have to wait a year because of Oden and forgot that they have a future (if not CURRENT) MVP candidate in Roy and a legitimate NBA big in Aldridge. The Blake signing was among the smartest pickups this last offseason and most underestimate players like Frye, Pyrzybilla, Outlaw, and Rodriguez (and they have more talent in the pipes in Fernandez, Koponen, etc.).
Their infrastructure is light years ahead of the Warriors.
Portland has actually been my second favorite team this year and I’m very happy to see them go as far as their sound defense and exciting youth can take them, especially if it forces us to be more thoughtful in degining for our OWN future because we know Portland is not going away.
All for a competitive, healthy league and NOT getting into the playoffs because of the weakness/demise of other teams. That’s just lame.
#63 was a Cohan impostor. Everyone stick to your own fake names please.
Phob 20
Good points. However, have you considered:
1. the typical championship team plays a 1/2 court, walk it up the court set. If we played that slow down styl