The Reckoning (Warriors 121, Sonics 126)
“My reputation grows with every failure.” — George Bernard Shaw
Don Nelson and Baron Davis arrived in Oakland with reputations. Chris Mullin earned one quickly in his early days of GM. In the magical 06-07 run, they transcended them. In 07-08, they leave the season haunted by them. Just warfare theory rests on a sense of proportional response. Just criticism should play by the same rules. Mullin, Nelson and Davis are the Warriors’ biggest pieces, the engines driving their successes. They, therefore, cannot duck and hide when things go wrong. Whether or not you want to label a 48-win, no playoff season a failure is between you and your basketball deity. What is undeniable at this point, as the Warriors sit at the end of a string of losses against the teams they once considered peers, is that something has gone wrong. At the end of the 07-08 season, there are eight teams in the West better than us. With the Blazers, Clippers, Kings and even Sonics improving in a hurry, the 08-09 season doesn’t look like it’s going to be any prettier. There’s no denying the fun we’ve had this year, but now it’s time for the reckoning.
Wednesday night against the Sonics was a classic pride game. As a team, the Warriors played as if they didn’t have much to be proud about. There were exceptions — another tremendous workhorse performance by Biedrins, a typically efficient night from Ellis, and the breakout offensive explosion we’ve been expecting for the past 81 games from Belinelli. But the veterans that were supposed to lead this team to playoff glory — Davis, Jackson, Harrington — looked defeated and disinterested. They shot a combined 12-40 from the field and managed 7 rebounds between them (6 from Davis). As bad as the stats look, the body language was even more offensive. Jackson and Harrington get a pass from me for now (I’ll do a full breakdown on the roster later this week). Since we’re officially in the off-season, I’ll start at the top of the Warriors and work my way down:
Chris Mullin - Mullin earned a reputation during his first few years as an easy mark for player agents. He handed out huge contracts that left the Warriors immediately pinned under the weight of their own overly optimistic assessments. Mullin did a great job getting the Warriors back to a reasonable cap position with the Dunleavy / Murphy trade. The Richardson trade, despite still-debatable emotional fallout, swapped an aging swingman with bad knees for a huge-upside, young big man, while furthering the contract purge. Finally, despite tough talk from free agents Pietrus and Barnes, Mullin held the line and forced them to return at reduced rates. At this point, however, Mullin’s smart cost-cutting moves necessitated by his prior mistakes swung too far in the other direction. Mullin rounded out the rest of the roster with low-cost NBA retreads (Croshere, Hudson) and totally untested youngsters (Azubuike, Wright, Belinelli, Lasme, Perovic, O’Bryant). The biggest mistake of my blogging year was over-estimating what the bench could give us. Mullin seems to have worn the same blinders. Barnes had only managed one consistent year of NBA play, we knew Pietrus’ all-too-obvious faults, and everyone else was either low reward or a total question mark. It was a cheap off-season, but not a productive one for a team looking to win now. Nelson entered the year with a roster of only 5 consistent NBA talents.
Don Nelson - Faced with a roster of only 5 consistent, game-ready NBA talents, Nelson had a choice. He could either (1) play those 5 as much as possible and hope that it would be enough to get him to the playoffs or (2) gamble with the rest of his roster and hope to stumble upon contributors somewhere in the mix. Nelson chose option 1 and the rest is history. He faced a lot of immediate pressure to take the conservative route given the team’s 0-6 start due to Jackson’s suspension. The team spent the first two months digging itself out of the early hole, fighting tooth and nail to get back into the fight. I don’t take issue with Nelson for the early third of the season. Where I think things went wrong is the middle third. From the middle of December through January and into early February, the Warriors faced a long stretch of easy opponents. They managed to build leads against most of these teams. Rather than give the bench players some significant burn with these leads, with the goals of building confidence, familiarity, and real game experience, Nelson kept his starters on the court consistently with 15+ point leads. The starters often blew the leads, forcing the same panicked finishes that would have occurred under the worst case scenario of a bench collapse. The Warriors emerged from the middle third of the season — during which Nelson seemed to cling to his starters for dear life in every game — with a decent record but a physically wasted team. During the final third of the season, against the competition that really mattered, we all know what happened.
The questions that we’ll be debating for the next six months is what Mullin and Nelson could have done differently and, more productively, what they should do differently this off-season. I’ll spend the dry months of the summer posting endlessly on these things for those die-hards who want to stick around, but here are my early thoughts (which are by no means original or shocking):
1. You get what you pay for in a bench. Mullin failed to invest the mid-level exception in a proven NBA talent who could be counted on for game-in, game-out production. We hoped Barnes or Pietrus would be this guy. Azubuike may still grow into him. Regardless, we lacked him (and the 20-25 minutes a night he could have bought the starters in terms of rest). Paying the luxury tax certainly stings, but so does losing out on playoff revenues due to a final 15 game flameout.
2. Exploit the advantages of going small. Nelson’s small teams manage to beat bigger teams on occasion because they neutralize the two advantages of size. On offense, the high percentage shots of the post game are replaced with the high percentage shots of fast breaks and dribble penetration. On defense, the possessions gained through strong rebounding are replaced by possessions gained through aggressive ball-hawking defense. Nelson was forced to play small largely due to the talent on his team (although I do believe he underutilized Biedrins for most of the year). To exploit the two advantages of going small described above, however, you need an energetic and disciplined team. The energy was lacking all year due to the absence of bench depth and the discipline disappeared for reasons I’ll describe below. Nelson’s system didn’t produce results this year — and hence the usual calls for Nelson to find a big man — but I think there’s an argument to be made that Nelson’s plan could have succeeded again (like we saw at the end of 06-07) had he gained one or two bench contributors, done a better job managing minutes, and instituted some discipline. In 08-09, he’ll either need to find the missing pieces and do a better job coaching around the gaps or find that mythical big man that’s eluded him his entire career.
3. Injury prone veteran band-aids and a running team don’t mix. For veteran help, the Warriors brought in Troy Hudson, Austin Croshere, and Chris Webber. All three are extremely injury prone. Shockingly, all three spent most of their time with the Warriors injured. The pace of Nelson’s teams takes a heavy toll on young, healthy bodies. It destroys older bodies, particularly when they’re new to the system. These veterans were cheap because they were risky, and the Warriors as a team were in a position to heighten the risk through their style of play. For the future, I say either spend the money on veterans who aren’t broken down or take your chances with younger players from the D-League that are less likely to fall apart after two practices.
4. Defense matters. Contrary to what some say, the Warriors did play defense at times this season. There were short bursts in games when they punished teams, reducing smooth offenses to chaos by attacking the ball and patrolling the passing lanes. For most of the season, however, they didn’t play this type of defense. And Nelson let them get away with it. By overlooking plain laziness on many occasions by Davis, Ellis, and (less often) Jackson, Nelson sent the message that it would be tolerated. Once it was tolerated, it became standard practice. And after enough time as the usual course of business, the team seemed to forget how to turn up the heat the way it used to. When they needed crucial stops against LA, New Orleans, Dallas, Denver, or Phoenix, they were unable to get things done. Nelson used to demand maximum effort from the top of a roster to the bottom for those hoping to earn minutes. In 07-08, the rules seemed to change.
What do you get when you roll all of these things together? A 48 win team, capable of consistently squeaking by bad teams but increasingly frustrated by the true contenders, able to execute high-percentage systems throughout games in which the Warriors could only get things together for fits and spurts. The hare may be fun to watch at various points along the race course, but you want your money on the tortoise at the finish line. No one captured this more than the face of the team.
Baron Davis - When Nelson benched Baron in the second half of the Phoenix game, it was an admission of both their faults. Over the course of this season, Baron gradually drifted away from being a playmaker that elevated his teammates (see Paul, Chis and Nash, Steve) into a play-killer that busted offensive plans at the worst possible moment and seemed far too content to pound the ball, fade away, and/or pull up from behind the arc. In short, Bad Baron won out over Good Baron. Baron spent the first half of the Phoenix game engaging in nearly ever brutish habit in his playbook. Nelson, knowing there was little chance to make the playoffs, pulled the plug on his star in a weak effort at reigning in a problem that had long ago slipped away from him. The compromise under which Baron and Nelson worked during 06-07 went something like this: Baron would play within Nelson’s system until glory time. With the game on the line, however, Nelson would let Baron be Baron. This system worked into the middle of this season (and even featured classic Davis game-winners against the Heat and Celtics). Two things, however, appear to have derailed this delicate détente.
First, Davis got snubbed for the All-Star game. After playing within Nelson’s system, working to elevate his teammates, and saying all the right things, Davis was once again on the outside looking in. Being a good soldier had led to no medals, only redeployment. Second, it became clear after the All-Star break that Nelson intended to leave Baron on the court whenever possible. Baron, in turn, started coasting for stretches of the game to have something left at the end of the game and season. I don’t fault him for it — it was a physical reality given the minutes he played. As the one setting the tone and tempo for the Warriors, however, the coasting was contagious. Nelson appears to have believed that Baron coasting was the lesser of two evils. We’ll never know whether he was right. In the middle of the season, Baron’s coasting appeared voluntary. By the end of the season, we could no longer entertain the pretty thought that Davis could turn things on and off at will. The back-breaking loss to the Nuggets was the first time that I can remember that Davis used fatigue as an excuse (Jackson, interestingly, still to this day refuses to do so). Two games later, with the slimmest of playoff hopes on the line against Phoenix, Nelson wielded Davis’ fatigue excuse against him to justify the benching of his star.
The most significant question is where do Baron and Nelson go next. I had hoped Davis would bounce back against Seattle to push the tempo and distribute the ball. No such luck. Whatever rut Davis settled into, he was still in it Wednesday night. He has six months to find his way out of it. If Nelson returns (I think this is a big if), he’ll have to demand accountability from Davis to improve the Warriors’ chances. And if Davis returns (I think this is a small if), he’ll need to be mature enough to rise to the challenge rather than chafe under it. Finally, Mullin needs to provide a roster where there are real alternatives to make this plausible, both so that Nelson can turn to someone else to run the team and Davis can get some rest to allow him to play all-out while on the court. The Warriors’ three most important figures all failed in their own, interconnected ways this season. When it comes to assigning blame, any fight about appropriate distribution should be first and foremost among these three.
Losses lead to frustration. Frustration leads to blame. Blame can either lead to unproductive, festering negativity or critical, productive action. It’s true for the Warrior and for this blog. Don’t mistake the above criticism as a lack of appreciation for what we witnessed at times this year or what we have to look forward to next year. As people who care about this team, we want them to improve and continue to succeed. Thanks to an early exit this year, we’ll have an extended time to come together to discuss what we think are the best paths forward. Fans, like the three crucial Warriors above, likely have their own individual opinions and solutions. The success of the team (and the impending six month fan blog discussion) will depend upon finding a way to give expression to those differences in a way in which they can interact to produce something far greater than the sum of their parts.
A great post with which to start the post-season discussion, Adam.
If Baron comes back undisciplined, and Nellie allows it (or a new coach is powerless to stop it) it could very well spread like a cancer on the team. (I know that’s an overused sports cliche, but so be it).
I would love Baron to come back with a mature attitude, one where he tells himself that if he’s not hitting shots, there are other things he can do to help the team win.
In order for that to work, the coach has to give him the rest he needs so that he can play hard. And of course, the coach has to be provided with the backups (as you mentioned) so that he can feel secure sitting Baron.
If the discipline is not laid down, alot of young players are going to grow frustrated. And not only that, they are going to develop bad basketball habits.
And yeah, as you said - I think it’s okay for us to constructively critique the team here. It goes without saying that there was alot to love about the team this year. Many of us are here becaus we care - and we critique because we love the team and want it to be better.
I don’t know Mullin well enought (like I know him at all) to know if he’s capable of introspection. He’s going to need it if he wants to beef up this game and become better at building the team.
Thanks aqain Adam - great post and great year of posts.
As a long distance die-hard fan, the electronic coverage of the Ws is vital to my fandom. I also think it gives me perspective since I don’t get to watch many games.
While it’s a bummer to miss out on the playoffs and the extra national TV games, we had no shot at winning a championship this year for reasons covered at length. From this distance, the team improved by 6 victories over last year - ~15% improvement over last season - arguably with less talent. And the W nation is pissed off? Please. Can anyone honestly look at the previous 13 yrs and tell me this wasn’t a good season? Disappointing finish, maybe, but last year was lightning-in-a-bottle which gave us a false impression of how good the team really was.
As far as Nellie’s style of play being a hindrance, I beg to differ. I would choose exciting, riveting basketball where failure and success teeter-totter on a game-by-game, even quarter-by-quarter basis over the boring, deliberate style of Spurs basketball every day of the week. Would it be great to win a championship? Sure, but at the expense of walk it up, throw it down low, and shoot 40 free throws each game? Hell no.
I applaud Mullin for putting the spark back onto the court and making us all feel passionate about the game again, like it was when I was a 20-something sitting in the rafters on an 8-game mini plan and shouting my harangues at fatso-Barkley and narcissistic-Malone, rather than just bitching about how crappy of a team we have and being irrelevant to the rest of the country. I wouldn’t bother to stay up until 1am watching West Coast games if it was boring basketball.
Fact of the matter is we are on the upswing for this franchise. It could lead to a championship - it could not. Who cares? I just want to be able to watch my team compete in an exciting fashion, with a chance to win too, and ride that thrilling, emotional wave of success and failure.
Compare it to the Niners of the 80’s. Would it have been as exciting had we won in a grind-it-out, plodding style? The reason it was so memorable wasn’t because of the Lombardi trophies but rather the way Walsh orchestrated the system with backs catching passes in the flat and receivers getting the ball in the open field to make moves and plays, creating non-traditional mismatches (like Nelson’s approach).
Next year will be even more exciting as we see MB and BW get into the mix, and stiffs like MP frustrating some other fan base.
And like Adam says, hell yeah we’re all homers! That’s why we’re on the blog. Even the haters like poster Chris Cohan, who seem to define negativity as honesty, add something here to that emotional balance and prove to be no different than all of us every time he makes a comment, even if that makes us all cringe and want to type 200 words-per-minute in response.
BTW: I’ve been in Scotland all week and had the chance to catch some Scottish Sports Talk radio. CC is a kitty cat compared to the fans here.
All in all, I’m proud to wear my Warriors hat in ACC country and look forward to the seasons to come.
These rationale perfectly sum up my thinking about the ‘flame out.’ Davis and Nelson clearly did not see eye to eye, but Nelson and Davis must also look to Mullin for relief—only this pointed to the real CC in the effect he exerts upon spending—and there came none.
What a brutal measure of a man to watch all the rumors come true about MP. Wow. If he is back (small, big if?) then I don’t like the W’s chances period. But perhaps he is more like a canary in a coal mine? Detecting a permissive, passive coaching effort he resorts to the kind of sniveling, weak behavior we witnessed. Watching his perceived leadership flail about and abuse the discipline on the court dropped his level down to “playing for a contract.”
But perhaps you might address the phenomenon of so many on the team playing for the contract. The Mullin gambit assumed that this would improve performance. It did not. Clearly it did not.
Wow.
Cheers, all.
As far as last night’s game specifically goes, your sentence sums it up perfectly: “But the veterans that were supposed to lead this team to playoff glory — Davis, Jackson, Harrington — looked defeated and disinterested.” With no playoff glory left, I don’t blame those 3 at all for mailing it in. They tried their hardest this season, but why keep running all out after the race is over? Pride? Please. Baron and Jax especially should go on vacation, rest up, and hope they have a real bench next year to give them some breathers.
I also cannot compliment enough your brilliant analogy for Baron of, “Being a good soldier had led to no medals, only redeployment.” I noticed the drop-off in Baron’s play at that time, too. I personally respond quite poorly when I feel as if I have clearly, unjustly been wronged. Some people bounce back I guess, but I don’t blame Baron in the slightest for being so disappointed and frustrated. Then I’d add that the Fisher flop call was another instance of injustice vested upon the Warriors at the worst possible time. When the full power of the world seems to be going against you, no matter how strong you are, sometimes “me” doesn’t seem like enough.
Dyn-O-Mite.
From Mullin on down, everyone over 25 goes.
the most head scratching thing that happened this year was the Warriors passing the trade deadline with a whimper instead of a bang.
They had around a 32-20 record and were in prime position to make a playoff push.
Clearly, with the season half over, management had ample opportunity to assess the teams’ strengths and weaknesses.
We all know that Teflon Don is not shy about making big trades, and up until this season he had a coaching philosophy of meritocracy. Players earned their minutes. I do not understand how we could have passed through the trade deadline, with some GLARING needs, and not have pulled the trigger. More than anything else this season, the lack of trade activity when the opportunity presented itself is puzzling and crippling.
The only thing I can attribute this to is Nellie’s obstinance. I think that there were so many blockbuster trades that he was not afforded the spotlight he is accustomed to and had a knee jerk reaction to shock the world by NOT making a trade.
If that’s the case then thanks for nothing Nellie.
I hope Chris Cohan is happy with the luxury tax he saved to avoid the playoff revenues. I bet his investment portfolio consists primarily of long term bonds, with a couple mutual funds thrown in for excitement!
I would just like to say it was a good year. I will not become one of these fair weather fans who call for the coach and mullies head. I remember too well the previous 13 years and will not be stupid enough to complain about 48 wins and an exciting team. Yes we have some weaknesses. BUt so does everyone else. Congrates on a good season and good luck in the lottery. Let me ask you guys this, is this not the best you have ever felt going onto the lottery?
“Losses lead to frustration. Frustration leads to blame. Blame “……..leads to the Dark Side!
Thank you for the analysis all season. First place I turn every morning. I look forward to an interesting offseason.
A brilliant summing up as far as it goes–and I am really looking forward to your reckoning on the rest of the team, espec MP–but allow me to quibble a tad.
The two mysteries of the season still stand:
1. Why did they go after CWebb, Troy, and Cro when Beno Udrih, Jamal Magloire, and Francisco Elson were out there? This willingness to “gamble” on cheap but brittle old vets when younger but tested vets were available shows what they lacked: a knowledge that they had to acquire players with fresh legs and league savvy combined with backing from CC, meaning a willingness to put up some real $$$. But Mullin/Nelson went cheap and got cheap results.
2. Dont they coach players on defense anymore? And I dont just mean the lack of defensive intensity and focus (in running Nellie’s scramble D) which some pass off as “fatigue” but I call a coaching failure. No, its more: our starting five have a total of 2 years college ball (BD at UCLA) so why are they NOT getting schooled on attacking a zone? Look at the tapes, espec. the Denver debacle of the 2nd quarter: when the Dubs see one, they freeze, freak, and fire up a 3, only to see the long rebound run back at us. It is unacceptable to have 4 or 5 coaches and no one is addressing this. I would love to hear Nellie BS his way out of answering this.
If the Dubs dont come up with a modern version of Larry Smith or Gus Johnson, meaning a rebounding, D-playing PF, these guys will continue to be entertainers and contenders. And we will get to watch exciting basketball and other people in the playoffs.
Damn, this off season is gonna “tell the tale”!
-oh God, I cant count the number of times I said “if Jerry Sloan were only here…”
Matt,
LOL. I was thinking the same thing.
Great for movies not so good in real life.
Adam, thanks for your excellent analysis. Your blog has been the only consistent thing this year.
I have 3 main concerns for next year:
1. No cap to get better bench.
As you said, we get what we paid for. We got cheap bench, which produced nothing and weighed on the starters. Unfortunately, Monta and Andris will get big extensions this summer that will fill up the cap space.
2. The West will get even better.
In addition to the 8 teams that are currently better than the W’s, Portland had already shown this year what they’re capable of. With Oden in their lineup, they’ll easily pass the W’s.
3. Wright and Belinelli are not ready.
Small-ball woes will continue into next season. Brandon is not yet the bruising scorer inside that we missed so much this year. And the dubs won’t be able to get another one due to the limited cap space. Marco may burst out as a great shooter (I believe he will), but he’ll remain a defensive liability.
Overall, I believe that next year will be another difficult transitional year where the dubs miss the playoffs.
However, we may see the fruit of this transition on the following year. Monta, Andris, Brandon, and Marco will be a great core. Jax and Harrington will provide the veteran leadership. And Baron’s $17M expiring contract will allow the dubs to acquire another quality player.
We Believe!
Cheers! Let the new season begin, the 08-09 Warriors. First and foremost, I’m very thankful for Adam for letting me have this outlet vent my frustration as well as my excitement for my team. Second, to all of fellow bloggers who are truly kind in sharing their thoughts. Whether it be positive, negative or plainly comical. Again, what I write in here is only my own self thoughts and most of all, I don’t mean to offend anybody.
I don’t believe DN is coming back. DN is tired and old. We have to realize that the W’s has a big task at hand in reorganizing the team. We need some retooling. I won’t even be looking whether BD is opting or not. BD is a problem. He was tag as a coach killer, remember? Better for the W’s if we could find a PG that is serious. Not like an engine that sputters from time to time. Unfortunately, there’s no mechanic that can fix BD.
I don’t fully agree that coach underutilized AB. There is this trend that we overlooked that most of this foreign players are coming back from their own national teams camp every start of the NBA season. They come in tired. We only got one AB. That’s the problem.
If were getting veterans, let’s make sure that we can get help when needed. Better look for some ‘young’ vets in the NBADL. The W’s need to throw more incentives to proven talent scouts. The return is always a precious gem. Even a coach, perhaps.
Let’s ALL be serious with our D. It matters in every game! A coach can never have consistent D from from what he has got is ONLY 5 guys. Not that they need a breather. Sooner or later, the opposing team can muster their movements and simply change their strategies. Surprise from the late W’s games? NO. The only substitute for a good D is double D , tripple D or whatever as long as it is an EFFECTIVE D. To do this, the W’s need a bench.
Baron-Nelson detente? Man! that’s a deadly poison for a team. A time bomb ready to explode any given moment. It spells disaster. The coach has got to be assertive at all times. Baron will return…for his $17million. Easy money. Mullin has got his dilema.
I would give SJ the team Captain again. That last game is for the bench. Let them enjoy it and I’m glad they have it. No sorry note on SJ and the rest of Nelsons five.
Again, let set our sight on the championship. Not just for a measly playoffs.
Mully went through 2 extremes.
Early in his tenure, he tried to show confidence in and motivate his players by ponying up early on good faith contracts. Collosal failure.
Next he tried to tried playing universal hardball by not extending ANY of his players last off-season. Also traded away and bought out his other high priced mistakes and refused to bring in anyone getting payed above the veteran’s minimum. Not collosal, but a failure none the less.
Hopefully this off-season he has learned from his previous 2 extreme off-seasons and starts to work somewhere in the middle.
The fundamental question is which direction should we take the team. Our leaders, Baron & Jack, are aging so do we try to get some immediate help and try to run n gun our way to a championship OR do we just put them out to pasture and hand the reigns over to our young guns, Ellis, AB, etc. We have to decide one way or the other or else we’ll get stuck in mediocrity Hell; not good enough to contend but not bad enough to improve through the lottery. I’m not sure which way it should go (CC seems to think ride the youngins) but that’s why Mully gets paid the big bucks. I still trust him and hopefully, we’ll see a real goal this off-season.
To balance my pessimistic outlook for next year (#10) here are some encouraging hopes:
1. Brandon and Marco WILL mature quickly.
We’ve already seen flashes of their potential. Let’s hope they materialize it faster than expected.
2. Monta will continue to improve at the same pace.
Monta is mentioned these days as a possible MIP for the second year in a row. If he can increase his shooting range and ball-handling skills next year, he’s going to be awesome.
3. Andris will compensate for the size inside (no put intended).
How about going to the gym over the summer to add some muscles, or even consulting with Barry Bond’s trainer? And how about taking Pete Newell’s Big Men Camp to add offensive moves around the basket?
4. With the improving Andris and Brandon as big men, Harrington can slide to the SF, where he’s going to be much more effective.
5. Baron will have a career year.
It’s his contract year, and he’s a good business man. Let’s expect the best from him.
6. Larry Ellison will buy the team, infuse resources, and use the $10M exception to get another great player.
Why not? Enough with Chris Cohan.
Enough with Chris Cohan.
I’m never going to leave.
Adam,
Thanks for a great blog this year and a terrific summation of the season. I think your analysis is absolutely correct. After last season’s amazing finish, I expected Nellie to work his magic again. Unfortunately, he did not! As I have said in earlier posts, no one can know the players like the coaching staff, but Nellie elected to not “trust” his bench players and ran his core into listless performance after listless performance (compared to last year) going down the stretch. Nellie must take the blame and reform in order for this team to regenerate itself. Past history does not suggest that he will have a great deal more talent next year than this year, but as true Warrior fans have always done - we will hope.
Last night’s loss was so very frustrating - on “Fan Appreciation Night” of all games for the team to “lay an egg” and provide Adam with lots of “fodder” for today’s summation. It was all there! Those of us sitting in “Club 200″ yelling “Defense” until our tonsils hurt all season were rewarded with a dismal show of lackadasical play again in spite of Al Harrington’s pregame speech thanking us fans. Hearing from Nellie might have been a nice gesture also - considering how his ineptitude was responsible for the season’s flop down the stretch. Once again, the “Club 200″ season ticket holders paying thousands for a seat were snubbed as “Fan Appreciation Night” degenerated into minions running around throwing pizza to the lower level millionaires at breaks while nary a t-shirt made it up to the upper deck filled with loyal die hard fans. As a first time season ticket holder, I expected that “Fan Appreciation Night” might be reflective of appreciation for those of us who burn $4/gallon gas to go to a meaningless game at the end of the season. No such luck. We were “treated” to multimillionaires BD, JAX and AH playing terrible defense (baseline drives galore and few steals), few rebounds (thank goodness for AB) and the usual blizzard of 3s with the predictable result. Why the Dubs kept cranking up 3s when trying to eke out a win - instead of driving and getting to the foul line while behind and in the bonus toward the end of the game - defys explanation. Where was Nellie during this exhibition of careless play? Instead of chewing out the refs, he should have been instilling some discipline in his team - at least for next year. Very disappointing. I totally agree with those who have said all year that Nellie is stubborn and won’t play his bench in order to develop the talent languishing there all season. Perhaps Al Attles should give Nellie some pointers. He needs some!!
Getting a rich, famous, local business owner to buy the team to bring us to greatness. How’d that work out for Seattle? Ellison’s into fancy boats and beautiful women. Watching an 82 game season, he will get bored faster than an A.D.D. kid on acid.
Adam,
I talked about a disconnect between Mullin and Nelson all season, to deaf ears mostly. Everyone here but me pretty much insisted that they were/are on the same page.
Your recent post suggests otherwise, putting part of the blame on Mullin for not providing Nelson with the bench he needed.
But the fatal mistake imo in your analysis was JR. First of all, an aging swingman with bad knees. Have you seen JR’s performance on a team where he is likely guared every night by the other teams best defender, or best two defenders? JR is in his prime, right now, and is perfect this Nelson offense.
The GM has to understand his coach, and where the team is at as far as players, contracts, and playoff aspirations. Here is what Mullin should have considered before trading JR for BW.
BD can opt out now. This was his last guaranteed year with the season. We specualate he will be back, but we don’t know for sure.
The coach was possibly in his last year. It was a team option, and even though it was extended, there is no guarantee Nelson will be back either.
Coach is trying to win it all, every game. Young player development, maybe a thing he did in the past, was not in his top 10 goals the past two years. I don’t give him credit for either Monta or AB. Yes he used them (although he underutilized AB like he does all big men), but Montgomery coached them their critical first two years in the league and was a coach coming from college that undoubtedly understands the importance to the program of young player development. I give Montgomery and the players the credit for their development.
Most of the team will be free agents after this season. Mullin chose to roll the dice and not resign AB or Monta, sign AZ, or Pietrus or Barnes or anyone else to a multi-year deal. There is no guarantee that any of those players will be back. Other teams can be stupid and desparate. AB 6 years 100m? Do we match that. Monta 6 at 100? Do we match that. Unlikely, true, but there are no guarantees.
Given the coach’s proven reluctance to play a young bench (see POB), and the fact that the entire roster, including our best players might not be back next season along with the coach, trading JR was a really bad move for this season. With JR we make the playoffs, and don’t overplay the 5 guys you say were proven. JR gives us 6 and simple math says 40 mpg is doable with just 6.
Trading JR for a talent that is 2 or 3 years away from being the force JR already was, not to mention the heart and soul of this franchise, was the wrong move at exactly the wrong time.
Yes, after the playoffs this season, we would have had to make tough salary cap decisions, and would risk being over the cap, but mostly due to Foyle, not JR. But we are there anyway, and now without the playoffs.
Thanks to Nelly, Baron, Al, and Jack for their fine performances on Fan Appreciation Night.
Baron’s market value dropped significantly since his whining over the All Star “snub” (kinda’ makes sense now doesn’t it?), his poor play in the second half of the season, the hand-slapping, lazy D all year, and the scandal in Phoenix. Combine that with his bad rep league-wide on attitude, shoot-first mentality, bad decision-making in general, and poor shooting demonstrated throughout his career and guess what? He’ll be back next season.
That’s the biggest problem facing the Warriors for next year. How to improve with Baron Davis dominating the court? This is the guy who refused to learn Kosta Perovic’s name during training camp, calling him by only by his number. Now that’s leadership from your captain and “best player.” Oh, and other than the alley-oops, did you ever see Baron hit Monta with a pass in a set offense that Monta could convert with his beautiful jumper? No you did not.
We heard all year that Brandan Wright and Marco Bellinelli just “weren’t ready to play.” We saw more potential from both those guys in their recent opportunities that we will ever know with “Captain Jack” and Harrington. NOW Nelson says Brandan and Marco will play next year. Suddenly they’ve become ready to play. I don’t buy it.
Our genius coach is known for exploiting match ups. That’s the mentality that limited Biedrin’s minutes so much this year, and kept the rookies out of the picture completely (Bellinelli got to play against the Clippers only because Dan Dickau was in! Brilliant!)
Let’s try something different. Put your best players out there every night and let the competition match up with you! Of course you tweak during the game, but you keep your starting lineup and rotation patterns consistent.
Hopefully the We Believe Train has left the station for good. For the fans who think watching San Antonio Spurs type basketball is boring and would much rather see the Warriors fly up and down the court, you might want to sign up for basketball camp this summer. With a deeper appreciation for the game, you won’t see the game the way you do now.
Like Obama says, “It’s time for change.” Let’s hope Mullin’s got the courage to do what it takes, even against popular sentiment. His father-son thing with Nelson has run its course.
Nellie said the team was “too young this year.” Translation: Remind me why we traded J-Rich for a freshman, again.
Double translation: I thought we were ‘posed to get Garnett. I’m too old for this.
If Nellie sticks around, they will likely try to deal the first-round pick, if anyone’s interested.
Very disappointing end to the season, but can you imagine if we don’t re-sign Monta and AB? Whoa. That would be soul-crushing. I know no one here wants to even entertain that thought. So why bother, just throwing it out there.
Turns out, Marco Belinelli is THE MAN, the guy to bet on in meaningless basketball games. Turn the heat off and he starts cooking. That’s a very encouraging sign.
I think Mully held him back this year, from winning D-League MVP, I really do.
Disconnect? Just depends on whether the decision is to go for broke next season, or not. IF management decides that we are within one player of making a real run (instead of a fun distraction), who would that one player be, and what would it cost to get him?
Now that Marion’s in the East on a club that may just want to deal, it’s easier to picture the dubs making a play for him (never could imagine it with PHX y’know). Contract-wise that would be a huge commitment, but he’s a capable scorer in an uptempo system who can defend 4 NBA positions on most nights; he’d pick up some of Monta’s and Baron’s slack (the East Bay sieve team). Nelson would play him since he’s a little small for a true PF, his (punk arse) attitude kinda fits too. We could send him to the Stephen Jackson School of Image Enhancement. Plus he’d get to play AGAINST Nash 4x a year - I think he’d really enjoy that. What would it take? Depends a bit on what MIA decides to do (retool quick or build with picks), depends on if Marion really wants to stay in South Beach, or not, as well.
I just don’t see Brand leaving the LAC (or KG leaving BOS either). I’ve always liked Antawn but he doesn’t address defensive needs.
IF the game is to make a real run at a championship in the crazy deep West then it seems to me that Shawn is the one player who just might be available who would have the most immediate positive impact in our areas of greatest need - front court scoring and defense.
Wonder how far Cohan would reach into his pocket for that?
Marion would be great…but Cohan ain’t going to pay the money. He’d prefer a full arena with a competitive team, and the cheaper/cheapest players to fill in a roster.
The Warriors lost the games they needed to get in the playoffs with the signing of C-Webb. Bad move by Mullin…we got worse with the trade while everyone else improved in the West.
Poor coaching by Nellie—wearing out the vets even with big leads. And, his inferiority complex with “big” men.
Finally…The rules on trades are a complete joke in the NBA–can you imagine this happening in MLB? Signing a retired player in order to get a star, adding another good player in the deal who is going to come back to you after a few weeks of sitting out. That’s a joke…why not just let the players all be free agents at the end of each year and start negotiating deals with whichever team they want (one year deals only).
And, yes, you know the refs are on the take anyway…this is a business you know. The LA and Boston markets are important. San Antonio, Dallas, Houson, Denver are..oh another key foul goes in favor of the Lakers and Celtics. It’s already set up to be the finals…no need to watch the playoffs.
BD Scandal:
I wish we could have seen what would have happened if Nellie would have guessed perfect and brought BD back in (with ~4 min to go)and the lead mazimized at ~8.
When the team and BD let the lead slip, what would the word on the this site be?
Nellie is a fool! The bench brought them back. Why bring in someone who was obviously having a horrible night.
Think about it, be honest. The scandal would be far worse, just different. Hate is hate.
Mr. Mully # 13
Great post!!! Mullin has a dilemma.
Which direction will he go?
It is very easy if he does not include Nelson in the equation. Until, he recognizes that his planning and strategy should be separated with Nelson style of basketball, he will be very confused what to do next year if Nelson decided to come back. Mullin will not be clear if he should tailor the roster for Nelson style or go with fundamental as many of fans hope the Ws would begin building for the ultimate goal.
I admire with relationship with Nelson, but he needs to have it at the proper place and time. He should not let this relationship dictate the most important moment that will define his career as a GM of a basketball franchise.
James Online # 19
I for once, very appreciated the Spurs style, because it brings results. The name of the game is to win, and I mean winning championship, not just to make playoff.
I respect the Spurs because: “This is what’s great about sports. This is what the greatest thing about sports is. You play to win the game. Hello? You play to win the game. You don’t play it to just play it. That’s the great thing about sports: you play to win, and I don’t care if you don’t have any wins. You go play to win. (Does that seem clear to you?) When you start tellin’ me it doesn’t matter, then retire. Get out! ‘Cause it matters.”
Ref, I agree that it’s very unlikely, both for the complicated nature of any sign and trade deal, plus, as you point out, Cohan’s money thing. He has, however, gone into the luxury tax before and, in this case, it might even be justifiable.
I mean we all have noticed that DEN is paying $81 mil this season (with another $14 mil of luxury tax) to be the 8th seed and face almost certain first round elimination against LAL. DAL, the 7th seed, is paying $90+ mil. In fact the only team ahead of us paying less than us is UT (talk about efficient competitiveness v cost ratio).
Maybe now’s the time to go for broke? Would the addition of Marion, and a likely $20 mil/yr contract (minus whoever we trade back) make us better than DAL and DEN, able to compete with NOH and LAL, hold off SAC, POR, LAC?
IF the point is to max out next year for Nellie’s Last Run, is there one player who may be available that could help more?
The NBA does have some stray WWF genes running through it’s family tree I guess; sports entertainment business y’know? CREAM!
Mano-
I don’t think Miami will give up Shawn. Unless another team throws a lot more money at him.. and D-Wade coming back from his injury (?) and Miami in a great position to pick up either Rose or Beasley (probably Rose), along with emerging youngins like Daequan Cook, you have a good team. of course, i would love to see Marion in a Warriors uniform.
Even more than that, i would love to see a steady rotation from the bench, improvement on defense, and more discipline on offense. contrary to what a lot of people think, i don’t think that this team necessarily needs more talent. it would be nice, but the Warriors competed with most of the top talent in the league with what they have. when they weren’t exhausted. a better rotation and a more disciplined attack will solve a lot of the problems we saw this year.
by the way, someone mentioned that Marco is a defensive liability? how could he be worse than BD or Ellis? As long as they’re not all on the floor at the same time, i don’t see the problem. as long as his shot is consistent.
Yuo guys are all such pessimistic, cynical, negative haters.
I put some of the blame on Nellie. He failed to “create” a bench during the year and paid the price towards the end of the year when his starters were too tired. When Pietrus received extended minutes, prior to getting hurt, he played great. Then Azubuike got his extended minutes to fill in for Pietrus he played well. Wright has generally played well when given a chance and even Belinelli has shown he can play. You can’t expect to get production from bench players when they don’t play for several games then come in for less than 5 minutes stretches. Nellie has got to utilize his bench more next season no matter who is on it and let them play.
#25 Herman Edwards is a Spurs fan…Dennis Green must have been a Warrior fan.
It’s pretty clear Mullin is a fan of Baron and Nelson. I expect them both to be back because I don’t see Mullin pulling a J-Rich with either of them. In that case, I hope Mullin holds firm and doesn’t budge. Make Baron come back next year without an extension. Mullin has already set the precedent with Monta and Biedrins. Any drama Baron raises only lowers his value via confirming his shoddy rep throughout the league. Unless that mythical post presence is brought in this off season, Baron with an expiring contract will likely be the most valuable chip Mullin will have to play build-a-franchise for long time. I can only hope he’ll make the best of it.
“There are plenty of teams in every sport that have great players and never win titles. Most of the time, those players aren’t willing to sacrifice for the greater good of the team. The funny thing is, in the end, their unwillingness to sacrifice only makes individual goals more difficult to achieve. One thing I believe to the fullest is that if you think and achieve as a team, the individual accolades will take care of themselves. Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence win championships.”
I respect the Spurs also but:
If the Dubs play the Spurs style and don’t have a
player like Tim Duncan (like most of the league)
they are DOA. The Oracle attendance would be 5000
a game and nobody would bother with this blog, except
the hardcore fans.
#33
Totally agree. I like the 90’s Bulls style also but good luck landing a Michael Jordan. Dynasties and great teams are set up because of great, few in a generation type players. Duncan is arguably the greatest PF of all time. If we lucked out and were able to draft him I’m sure we would of been perrenial contenders also. It’s easy to point at another winning franchise and ask “why can’t we play like them?” Sometimes luck has just as much to do with things as good management.
You got it CC: “The Warriors are who we thought they were, the Warriors are who we thought they were…We saw them in Pre-Season, we saw the season in 4 quarters, (expletive deleted), the Warriors are who we thought they were, (expletive deleted), the Warriors are who we thought they were. That’s why we read the damn blog. Now if you want to down em, then down their (expletive deleted). But they are who we thought they were…”
Nellie: “I’m not going to talk about basketballl today. I’m not going to take a question about the season. I’m going to talk about this blog right here.
Anybody hasn’t read this blog — I don’t read it, but it was brought to me by a mother with children. Think this is worth reading.
I want to talk about this blog. Three-fourths of this is inaccurate. It’s fiction…and this blog embarrasses me to be involved with athletics tremendously.
That blog had to have been written by people that don’t have a child and have never had a child that’s had their heart broken and come home upset! And had to deal with the child when he is upset! And kick a person when he’s down!
Here’s all that kid did! He goes to practice. He is respectful to the media! He’s respectful to the public! And he’s a good kid, and he’s a professional athlete and he doesn’t deserve to be kicked when he’s down.
If you have a child someday, you’ll understand how it feels.
But you obviously don’t have a child. I do.
If your child goes down the street and somebody makes fun of him because he threw away a pass in a pickup game, or says he’s fat, and he comes home crying to his mom, you’d understand. But you haven’t had that.
Someday you will and when your child comes home, you’ll understand.
If you want to go after an athlete — one of my athletes — you go after one who doesn’t do the right things!
You don’t downgrade him because he does everything right and may not play as well on Saturday! And you let us make that decision!
That’s why I don’t read the blog! Because it’s garbage! And the moderator who let it come out is garbage!
Attacking an athlete doing everything right!
And then you want to write articles about guys who don’t do things right and downgrade them, the ones that do make plays.
Are you kidding me? Where are we at in society today?
Come after me! I’m a man! I’m 67! I’m not a kid!
Write something about me! Or the coaches. Don’t write about kid that does everything right, that’s heart is broken, and then say the coaches say he was scared! That ain’t true!
And then to say that we made that decision because Donovan Woods, because he threatened to transfer! That’s not true!
So get your facts straight!
And I hope someday you have a child and somebody downgrades them and belittles them and you have to look them in the eye and say, “You know what? It’s OK. They are supposed to be mature adults but they’re really not.”
Who’s the kid here? Who’s the kid here?
Are you kidding me?
That’s all I’ve got to say.
It makes me want to puke.
And lastly, Chris Cohen: “Playoffs!?!? What’s that? Uh — Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!”
Sorry Wyatt, post #23 with the link must have been “Awaiting moderation” and bumped your post from #25 to #26. I was (in post #32) obviously referring to the quote YOU posted, and not to AndrewN’s post in which he raises the concern I share with him regarding the affect the relationship between Nellie and Mullin may have on Mullin’s ability to effectively be his boss. Not that it should matter but, he’s only human. Credit (to both posters) where credit is due…
One of the problems with the Dubs was their inability to handle zone defenses down the stretch. The word got out that no one on the Dubs would be willing to sacrifice their small bodies over and over to score on drives to the basket - except on occassion, Monte Ellis. Pack the lane and dare the Dubs “bombers” to shoot. And shoot (clank) they did. Result, FEW basket/foul plays, MANY opponent defensive rebounds with the zone set up for 3 lanes and beautiful fast break baskets (ala Denver)against the slow to get back Dubs, MANY quick 3 point attempts with no ball movement and predictable results. Zone defenses are not broken down by outside “one and done” bombers, but rather by probing passing/driving and dishing players. The Dubs fell into the trap of not daring to challenge the zones they saw and this continued last night. Enough! Stick a fork in them for another season!
Imagine….
(Key John Lennon’s sweet tone…)
Imagine all the people…. expressing their opinions simplyyyy….. heee eeee eeee”
Now breakaway with the needle over vinyl sound “rrrzzzttt..”
My only gripe about what drives this site are how so many people feel the only way to express their own opinion is to take it to the extreme.
If you dislike some of Nelsons decisions, call him a buffoon, an idiot, and use the superlatives “He NEVER (fill in the blank)… develops players ” or “He ALWAYS hates… his rookies” blah blah blah.
If you dislike a player, call him a name and project that he NEVER has a future or will ALWAYS fail.
This team team has made some great strides, but there is plenty to be critical of too, but lets not burn down the barn and bayonette the wounded.
Maybe I’m wrong but I think so many present a contorted view simply for effect, and then the annoying skirmishes begin. I love the full spectrum expressed just not the far ends - both ends: Nelson’s an Idiot to cool aid. To fight extreme sometimes requires extreme.
ANd now, the lack of playoffs, and the BD ’scandal’ is only raw meat for the lions, and the extremes are resurfacing.
That said - I love the extreme sarcasm, when its meant to be sarcasm.
THanks again Adam for a great write up and presenting a great strong opinion without leaving scars.
Key the music….
“Imagine…. It’s easy if you try…”
BTW my “Imagine” post comes after reading the last thread.
Mano, u are correct of course that Marion would be terrific for this team. However, he would not want to play for this team for the same reason that he wanted out of Phoenix: he was sick of playing “out of position” at the 4. He wants to be a 3.
This by the way, is probably the same reason Garnett didn’t want to play here: he doesn’t want to be a 5.
I don’t think we need a star at the 4. In fact, that might make the team worse: “there is only one ball.” We need a workhorse, a rebounder, who can hit an outside shot. A guy like Nocioni, Najera, one of Houston’s guys, Villanueva. A role player who won’t back down against NBA tough guys. I think that would do it.
Oops, I let “Donovan Woods” slip into post #35, I guess just sub in Baron Davis, or something. And trade “transfer” out for “pick up his option.”
Cheers!
Well said. I appreciate the time your put into this blog, as it quickly became the best analysis of the team, hands down. I hope you continue to keep up the good work.
Shawn Marion is precisely the type of player the Warriors should not pursue.
Educate me.
I totally agree with the bench analysis above. We got exactly what we paid for a cheap poor bench and it hurt.
But,in salary cap land, is it possible that a few better players with higher contracts could impede the signing of AB or ME (vs luxury tax) and reasonable support players this year.
In my mind the distaste of the bench and not having JR this year were simply necessary evils to have a better team next year and in 2009-2010.
Not a cap guy, just hoping this offseason will leave us with “Mullin had a plan” and it worked, finally.
Adam,
The other advantage of small ball is that the style creates more opportunties for 3 point shots. I think we set a record in that category? IF you can make them at a good rate, that also offsets the disadvantages we have in low post scoring and low post defense by going smaller. Unfortunately, we didn’t have any players consistently making their 3’s at a strong rate, which I define as 40%. As I joked about earlier, both JR and Dunleavy shot 40% from 3 pt range this season for other teams. I think AH came the closest to the 40% mark at around 38%.
In many games this season, it came down to whether we could make our open 3’s or not as to whether we won or lost the game, all other things equal. BD and Jacks were great at the end of games, hitting 3’s to pull out the win, although during the start and middle were often much less effective to put it nicely.
I think this is where Marco might have helped if his defense was better.
Inside Nellie’s head as Durant goes for 40:
“Man. . .I sure wish that guy was on our team . I’d bench him so fast it’d make his head spin. . . I might even send him down to the D League. That’d show him!”
So the season comes to an end, without the W’s in the playoffs. Fans lament, voice their opinions as to what went wrong, and cry out for a revamped playoff system wherein a team with as many wins as the Warriors actually makes the post season. I, for one, am happy with the team’s improvement. And while I’m disappointed that they failed to make the post season, I look forward to even better days to come. We may even move up in the lottery and end up with a top three pick for Nellie to ignore. Either way, better days are on the horizon. What would I do? For starters:
If he continues to waffle, I’d thank Nellie for his time and let him know that he doesn’t have to worry his old stubborn head another day about whether or not he wants to come back. I’ve made the decision for you. Thanks for your time. Then, as soon as the Mavericks get bounced this year and Cuban fires Avery, I’d scoop him up and hand him the keys. He’d make the team play defense, while still catering to the running game. And, he might even (GASP) PLAY A BIG MAN once in a while. As for players, well, goodbye to Pietrus, Barnes, Croshere and, if he stubbornly wants the max contract, well, sorry to see you go, Baron, but help yourself to a lovely parting gift as you exit the building. He played 82 games in a contract year. Don’t forget that. Now, if he wants to come back at a reasonable price, then we can talk. But at the max? No thank you.
As for who to add to the team? Well, for starters, lock up Monta and Andris. Then, I go hard after Brand if he opts out. The team will never be a threat until they establish a scorer down low. And it’s not Andris. For all his talents, he needs to concentrate exclusively on defense and rebounding. Brand handles not only the offensive end, but he gives us a fighting chance against Boozer. A pure shooter off the banch, a legitimate b/u point guard, maybe another athletic 3 or 4? Man, I can’t wait till next year, after the draft and some personnel moves. They’ll be even better.
Thanks for the great blog, Adam.
Ron C, (#37) (again), it’s not spelled “Monte”. It’s Monta. Monta. Monta. Monta. MontA. His first name ends with the letter “A”! Five letters, two syllables. It’s not that difficult.
Adam,
Thanks for your continued commitment to this blog. I’m truly glad to hear you’ll continue writing throughout the summer. You know we’re always eagerly awaiting your next blog. Sharing the offseason with all the diehard fans on this site made last offseason go fast. With all the issues surrounding the Warriors, I look forward to an even more entertaining and ‘faster’ offseason with everyone here.
I think you gave a fair yearend performance review of the 3 biggest characters in our favorite drama–”As the Warriors’ World Turns”— Nellie, Mully and Baron. They all have big decisions to make that will shape the future of the franchise. Mullin for one, is saying all the right things as far as what’s needed to improve the team. I hope Mullin can convince the owner to spend some money to upgrade the roster when the time comes.
Pbob20 in #38
So true!
But I understand. We care too much about this team and we all feel like we have a lot to say.
Sure the Spurs have won. They also lost for many years to the Lakers due to Shaq. (Kobe was replacable.)
The Spurs make me yawn and I am glad that their days are numbered.
Adam,
Loved the points you made about the 2nd third of the season. I think that is precisely where we hurt our playoff chances. We had a lot of huge leads, I remember a good number of 20 points or more. Instead of going towards a hungry bench willing to play hard to prove themselves he stuck with the starters. Well, the starters got real lazy on d and started chuckin early threes and they let the other team back in the game. They had to struggle to pull through in the end, a couple times they didn’t(Charlotte?). This did a couple of things, first it got them in the habit of playing lazy defense with horrible shot selection with absolutely no threat of being sat down. And it also tired our starters out. When the leaders of this organization look back, I hope they take a very special look at this part of the season, it’s what did us in IMHO. From that point on we got into a turn it on and off mentality which caught up to us in the end when they had no legs. We proved we had the talent to beat the best in the league.
Who is your pick for the championship? I dare you.
Utah or Phoenix, can’t decide between the two but if I had to bet my life on it, I’ll go Phoenix(small ball bias).
I’ve always thought a lot of Utah but they can’t beat the Lakers for some odd reason - even when the Lakers are at their worst.
Adam,
Pretty good breakdown, but I think you failed to emphasize the importance of the luxury tax threshold. We would have been over it this year if we hadn’t traded JR. I think management realized that trade could cost them a spot in the play-offs, but didn’t have a choice. Budgeting is very much a top-down process, and neither Mullin nor Nelson are at the top.
Even after that, we were still pretty hard up against the limit, until we bought out Adonal and Sarunas. Although we played hard ball with Mikael, we did offer him the QO, which further tied our hands financially. I think we expected to get a more attractive trade offer for him than we did. In retrospect, we might have been better off to let him walk, allowing us to be more aggressive in signing other free agents.
We were unlucky with all of our “battle-tested” vets, but you can’t blame that on anyone. No one thought Taft or Cabarkapa were too old or injury-prone last year. Unfortunately, Hudson, Croshere, and Webber were brought in to produce from the bench while our younger players worked on development. Their inability to stay healthy had a significant impact on our bench strength.
I’m not at all concerned with the events of the last 2 games. If we’d been eliminated a month ago, I’d have expected some bounce-back (like we usually do). As it was this year, the team was still emotionally flat.
50
Now that they didn’t make the play-offs it’s easy to
say that he should have played the bench with 20 point
leads. There is no guarantee that the bench would do
better (especially THIS bench). The Dubs are a marginal
play-off team at best, Mullin & Nelson admit this. If
the 3 pointers, go in they can beat anyone, if they don’t they can lose to anyone.
NBA Champ Pick: Celtics over Suns in the Finals
I think that the fact that Mullin did not extend anyone this season is good. Otherwise they would be stuck with MP and MB with contracts that would be difficult to move.
Maybe next season, they can get a better bench: this year’s rookies will be ready to contribute and they can use the trade exception to get a inside presence. Maybe even get lucky in the lottery.
While I would never recommend Tim Kawakami for his writing, he does perform a public service with his interview transcriptions. See his blog:
http://www.mercextra.com/blogs/kawakami/
for end-of-the-season sessions with BD, DN, and CM. The Mullin stuff is particularly interesting, as Chris tends to stay away from the media most of the time.
SJ Jim
I think Ron C is mixing Monta Ellis with Monte Hall. Now that guy had some hops.
#55
Me and some others were actually saying this during that time. It was the perfect opportunity to develop the bench and give them minutes. Or at the very least see what they would have had with the bench. And there was no way they could do worse, the starters coughed up the lead so easily and quickly it was amazing. I hate the excuses people come with not making the playoffs. The fact is we didn’t try certain things. Nellie stuck with his guns all year long. Dont forget BW only got the opportunity to play because Biedrins was out, CWebb was ineffective, and Harrington sucked and was in foul trouble. He said he wasn’t ready to play but then BW comes in and has some extremely good games in such a short amount of time. If those things didn’t happen he woulda still been glued to the bench. So it is the worst case scenario here, which really isn’t too bad cuz the future is bright; no playoffs no development for youngsters(or even evaluation to see what we really got), and frustrated people in the organization.
Who wins the championship?
I think Stern sent the memo out today and Boston gets it this year in 7 and he is letting the Lakers win the next two.
Sorry Suns and Utah but there is a bench clearing brawl in the works if necessary.
56 Petaluman
Why wouldn’t you recommend TK? He’s great reading!
Thanks all, as usual. It’s going to be a fun off-season.
On the championship, as sick as it would make me, I think the Lakers win. I’m pulling hard for the Hornets. They play team ball and since the Suns traded for Shaq, I think they’re the closest to the Warriors in spirit (right down to the short bench). Plus, if the NBA is going to ram some superstar repeatedly into my head, give me CP3 over Kobe every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Regarding Mullin and Nelson disconnect, I think Mullin and Cohan did not see or understand the potential of this team to compete for a championship.
At the end of last season, I saw a team on the verge of competing for a championship. We needed one player, a strong PF. All the other pieces were in place. We had BD playing at all-star level. JR our 2nd leading scorer, team leader, fan favorite, thriving in the Nelson system. Jacks and AH nice players suited to the system. AB and Monta developing rapidly and becoming forces at their positions. AZ a nice find from D league. Barnes and MP players that fit the system and provided depth. In my mind, we were a strong PF away from competing for a championship at the end of last season.
This was the time to go for it. We didn’t know if BD would opt out after the year, or if Nelson would come back, or even if some team would make an insane offer for AB or Monta that we can’t match. We were one player away, a strong PF.
This was the time to trade draft picks for a proven veteran to take that next step. Give up our 1st and 2nd, and maybe even next years first to get a good PF.
Instead, Mullin starts the rebuilding phase, trading JR for a draft picks. Never gets a PF. Goes cheap on the veterans, only looking for minimum contracts.
And when the window of opportunity presents itself, that’s the time for the owner to open his pocketbook and for the very short term, exceed the cap if needed. You can save money later in the inevitable rebuilding process.
Are we coming or going Mullin? Are we competing for a championship now, or are we rebuilding? You can’t do both at once. Pick one. If you want to win a championship, you can’t do both at once. Do you want to win a championship? Do we have an owner that when the time is right, as I believe it was at the end of last season, will pay the price to create one?
That’s the disconnect. Nelson, BD, JR, Monta, AB, AH, Jacks, AZ Barnes and MP and the W fans as a whole were ready to go for the championship. Get us that PF. Maybe a veteran PG to rest BD (not an expensive one). Instead, Mullin and Cohan started the salary dump and the rebuilding process right when we were on the verge of not just making the playoffs, but going far in the playoffs. When they should have been adding veteran talent and giving up youth for a push to a title, they did the opposite and dumped veteran talent in exchange for youth.
hindsight being 20/20, I would have loved to keep Jrich and then sign and trade for Josh Smith this offseason…
BTW, love your stuff Adam, my go to for all things Warriors.
Adam, I’m ashamed. How could the creator of the Warrior fan Mecca put his faith behind the Hated Lakers. Even if they were leading 3 games to none in the Championship series, it’s STILL blasphemy to predict they’ll win the title. Especially with Darth Mamba runnin the show, whose personality is about as authentic as his Aston Martin jump. Championship? Lakers. Never. A team whose star blasted players, ownership, and management. A team that is only in it’s position due to a *wink wink* deal with Jerry West. A team who got a got its first place title by cheating its way(DFish) for a couple wins. Championship? Not if basketball karma has anything to say about it.
Oracle
I’m very weak on the cap room and other contract issues, but I really hope that by the beginning of next season, the signed contracts will have you agreeing with some of Mullin’s moves which required waiting 1 year to come to fruition. And I also hope that the combination of BW’s skill and how Nelson uses him next season with Beidrins AND Monta (made possible by the JR trade) will have you finally saying Mullin made the right move. Because if that day happens it will be a good day in Warriorland.
If that day comes, I would think even you would have to admit the benefit of having JR this year to be 1 and done would be overshadowed by saying goodbye to AB or ME, or both, and not having BW, all to keep JR. He was good and a nice player but…
I appreciate your opinion, but I think its premature. Let’s hope so for the W’s sake.
Much as I have a distaste for Beantown (their sports fans and fratkids, mainly), I would enjoy seeing Garnett smack down Darth Mamba(nice, Mully) for his ring.
There is no guarantee AB and Monta will be here next season. What if a team offers either 6 years at 100m? do we match that? I don’t think so. What about 6 years at $80m? Do we match that?
There is no guarantee BD will be here next year.
There is no guarantee Nelson will be here next year.
Ditto, barnes, MP, and AZ, although some might say that’s good.
Maybe I’m too much of a homer, but I really thought that with JR, BD, Monta, AB, Jacks and AH, we had a solid 6 man rotation with only a strong PF missing.
This year we had Monta and AB on the cheap. It was a one year window of opportunity to have all those players together and add a PF without totally busting the salary cap.
Now we have to pay Monta and AB, and we won’t have the opportunity for a long time to get a player of JR’s calibler without releasing someone else of value.
Regarding BW, I expect him to be good, although you know I feel his development was delayed/postponed this season.
While BW, AB and Monta is definitely a solid core to build on, does it compare with the team of BD, JR, Monta, Jack, AH, AB, AZ, and one good PF that we could have had this season?
I believe the team above competes for a championship this year.
I think it will be many years before we have a team with that much quality again. Unless we really do some great things this offseason, and I hope we do, I think we may have missed a window of opportunity.
Oracle/All
I just figured out my question…. Aren’t the two scenarios for next year with the JR/BW trade and without the trade as follows:
No JR/BW TRADE:
JR and either AB or ME , but not both. So JR and an improved AB.
With the JR/BW TRADE:
ME and AB and BW, all improved over this year. And this is in place for two seasons when BW’s contract is up.
Do I have this right?
Come on Oracle, you can’t give Mullin any love for that? The short term costs (possibly a one and done playoff) are minimal to the long term gain.
Yikes, IMO most everybody would make the trade (Everyone but Feltbot). Essentially you are trading JR for ME and BW is pure profit.
#68 & #69
Don’t forget Ellis’ progression w/o JRich in the lineup. I don’t think you get the same Ellis w/ JRich taking up most of his playing time.
Oracle: Good points. It would have been interesting. Yes the disconnect with Nellie and Mullin was one of the big factors this year and it may have bigger issues down the line.
I’m not as sure as you are that the team you mention would have been championship caliber, mostly because of the casting up threes and defensive issues, but at least Nellie could have had his one last chance at glory with best small ball team he has ever had, and then walked away instead of the mishmash of this season.
The problem is that if you don’t make it, aren’t you are stuck with the same team for a while because of cap issues? If that team could have taken 2 or 3 tries at it that were real, honest chances, then I would say go for it. I have severe doubts otherwise, though. In that case, we would be spinning our wheels.
Very interesting perspective, regardless!
Mullin’s JR/BW trade results for next year.
Option 1: JR and AB (no trade)
or
Option 2: ME, AB and BW
Which is better?
Sad way to go out. Next year will be something else hopefully. Chris Cohan’s one liners are excellent.
How about them Sharks? Beat the Flames!