The Keepers
Whether or not Baron Davis returns to the Warriors next year, the future of the franchise currently rests on the following players. Here are the bright spots in their 07-08 games and the biggest questions hanging over them as we head into the off-season.
As I laid out in the last post, the ball is now in Davis’ court as to his future with the Warriors. No one doubts that he can be spectacular at times and has the strength to carry teams for long stretches. What he’s yet to prove, however, is that he can consistently play with discipline and focus in a way that elevates the games of his teammates. It’s something the best point guards do with regularity — and something sorely lacking from Davis’ final stretch of games. If Davis returns and rises to that next level with another year under his belt, the Warriors will improve as a team even without any development from the players below. If he bails out of his contract or doesn’t find that crucial maturity, however, it’ll be up to the following to keep the team moving forward:
Monta Ellis - During the middle third of the season, when the Warriors often struggled against average to poor teams, Ellis was the player most often arriving with clutch shooting or spectacular drives to bail out the team. He grew during this stretch from just one of the Warriors’ options into their go-to scorer when points became hard to find. His mid-range jump shot has become a thing of beauty, the death-defying thrill of his drives still hasn’t worn off, and he played for most of the season with a good sense of his strengths and weaknesses. Davis, Jackson, Harrington, and Biedrins all stumbled at points this year. Monta never let up.
The ultimate question for Monta is no longer will he be a superstar, but rather what type of superstar. He’s already one of the most effortless scorers in the league, able to shoot over small, quick players and blow past taller, slower ones. It became clear at the end of the season, however, that Monta scoring at will is not enough for the Warriors to succeed against the best teams, particularly with Davis struggling. For Monta to be a marquee player — the type you build your team around — he needs to improve his playmaking and defense. The prior area I’m not too worried about. Monta is still terrifyingly young, showed improved court vision and decision making this year, and steadily took over the responsibility of running the team as the season progressed. He’s not a born distributor but shows clear signs of being able to hold down the point spot the same way Iverson and Wade have managed.
The defensive question, however, is more problematic. I fear that he lacks the size and strength to be a top-notch defender, particularly at the shooting guard spot. Paired with Baron, Monta was often able to take the smaller player. If he’s left with a smaller back-court mate or matched-up against a larger, stronger point guard, he’s likely to face serious problems. Beyond his body, however, Monta never showed the type of defensive focus necessary to lock down opposing players. He far too often seemed intent of floating along with the ball, hoping to play the passing lanes, rather than keeping tabs on his man. It resulted in — literally — hundreds of open, unopposed jump shots over the course of the season for opposing guards. I still think Monta likely scores more than he gives up, but to be a player potentially pulling down more than $8-9 million a year next year, it would be nice to at least see a consistently ability to stick with one’s man.
Andris Biedrins - Following his record-setting return from appendicitis, Andris seemed to turn a corner. No longer was he a player merely cleaning up slop around the basket. For the first time, Nelson seemed comfortable running plays for him, going so far as setting up early game offense around him in some of the Warriors’ final games. In his usual workhorse fashion, Andris was up to the challenge. Occasionally, however, we saw more than just the utilitarian pick-and-roll moves from Andris. There were drives to the basket, the occasional up-and-under post-up move, and even a few little hooks from three or four feet. It’s safe to call 07-08 Andris’ breakout season given that (1) he put up fantastic numbers while largely exhausted from two years of non-stop basketball and (2) the performance will earn him a ton of money with his new contract. Still, during my most blindly optimistic moments, I get the sense there could be even better things to come.
The biggest question surrounding Andris as he moves into the prime years of his career is simply “what else can he do?” Given his physical gifts — soft hands, quick lateral movement, tremendous body control — there is little reason why he can’t develop a diverse offensive repertoire. He’s so disciplined when on the court, taking shots only within his approved 4 foot range, that we’re all in the dark as to what other elements he might have to his game. I’m not suggesting that Andris start taking jumpers (particularly the white-knuckle ride whenever he steps to the line, although even that improved at the end of the year). What I would like to see, however, is Andris pushing his comfort zone a bit to see if he can become a more offensive player. A 7-10 foot turn-around jump shot would do wonders for the Warriors’ ability to score in the half-court.
Brandan Wright - When I suppress that excitement that comes from the first days spent with a new toy and put my rose-colored glasses back in their case for a few moments, it’s hard to deny that Wright’s slender body caused major problems for him during his few stretches of play. That’s not to say it was a total curse or prevented him from being effective. His light frame probably helps him get off the ground so quickly for put-backs and blocks, not to mention allowing him the speed necessary to push the ball on the break. That said, in the post — where the Warriors need Brandan to play — his body was often a tremendous liability. He struggled on defense against bigger players and often found himself knocked out of the way on both offensive and defensive rebounds. Nelson coaches so much on mismatches that the thought of opponents isolating the strongest player on the court against Brandan likely often kept Nelson from turning to his rookie when the team needed either a substitute or support for Andris on the front-line.
My biggest question for Brandan is not whether he’ll be able to bulk up — I have little doubt that in a year or two he’ll have the wiry strong body common among many NBA players (think Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, even Stephen Jackson). My doubt rests on whether we’ll lose some of what makes Wright unique when he puts on the pounds. Wright has an undeniable smoothness on the court, from his moves around the basket to finishing on the break. If he adds 20-30 pounds of muscle, it’ll add force to his game but might risk the other elements. Still, it’s a risk the Warriors are going to have to take. At his current weight, he’s too big a defensive liability against most NBA frontlines. I’d love to see him eventually paired with Andris as twin towers of hustle and shot-blocking, but it’s awfully hard to score put-backs and sway shots when you’ve been knocked on your backside or cleared into the basketball support by someone’s flailing arm.
Marco Belinelli - It took Marco 82 games, but we finally saw some of the white-hot shooting that made him a summer league star back in 07. I’m not sure yet whether the final game demonstrated that Marco just needs time without the pressure of being yanked off the court or if the burst of scoring after a few lesser performances is just proof of his inconsistency. I’m guessing it’s somewhere in between. There’s no doubt that the brief appearances earlier in the season made it difficult for him to find his rhythm. That said, the shots Marco took against the Sonics to close the season looked identical to earlier shots that clanked out (they were all sideways, leaning, and out of Marco’s hand before anyone could fully realize what had happened). I suspect we might have just caught Marco that final evening while he was hot, compared to the few other nights he wasn’t feeling it. That type of streakiness won’t be a problem if we peg Marco as a 6th or 7th man, brought off the bench to help bust zones or shoot in the half-court. If the Warriors have ambitions of him starting, however, that type of inconsistency will be tough for the offense to handle, particularly when paired with Jackson’s similar here-today, gone-tomorrow touch.
As with Wright, the chief question for Marco is his defense. There were quite a few ugly moments when he was on the court where smaller, faster players simply faced him and blew right past him. His lateral movement is far from impressive, although his sense of spacing and defensive timing improved as the season continued. My hope for Marco is that he can learn from veterans like Jackson that not all of defense is about speed. By knowing when to commit and when to back off, a defender can minimize certain physical advantages. Also, despite Belinelli’s less-than-lightening fast footwork, he appears to have tremendously quick hands. The hands will allow him a little more room for error when it comes to defense (see Mullin, Chris). Still, I can’t help but shake the image of an Ellis / Belinelli back-court giving up bucket after bucket as the Warriors’ guards either fail to fight through screens to challenge shooters or get abused by players facing the basket, looking to penetrate. Both are young, so I’m hoping it’s not too late for someone to instill some defensive fundamentals.
Kelenna Azubuike - Monta gets all the attention when it comes to rapid development on the Warriors this year, but Kelenna deserves special mention as well. Azubuike put on an offensive show during the Vegas summer league and the Jackson-less opening of the season. After a middle third of the year in which he didn’t see much time, he re-invented himself as a rugged defender, giving Kobe as hard a time during the late season games as anyone the Warriors have been able to throw at him in years. Azubuike also went from playing above the rim in the early season to fighting below it for rebounds or loose balls by the end. To me, the changes signify a player looking to fit in however he can. When the Warriors needed a scoring two-guard, he was it. When they needed a pseudo-power forward, he hit the boards. And when the original defensive stopper - Jackson - struggled to stay with his man, Kelenna stepped up to the challenge. MP should have been taking notes on how to perform in a contract year. Azubuike will likely be nicely rewarded.
The doubt swirling around Azubuike this off-season is whether the Warriors will have the benefit of his services next season. He’s already signaled an intent to opt out of his minimum deal (who can blame him). He’ll be a restricted free agent for the Warriors, who should be willing to match any reasonable deal ($1-2.5 mil) that he might receive. If the contracts get much richer, the Warriors will need to ask the tough question: do we want to invest more money in a player who is already developing knee problems during his second year? The change in Azubuike’s aerial game between the opening and close of the season was alarming. He rarely complained about it (a smart move in a contract year), but there’s dramatic proof in the differences between his November and April performances. Here’s hoping Kelenna can combine the gritty intelligence of his late season games with the high-flying scoring of his early-season minutes.
Kosta Perovic - Playing the crucial role on a Nellie team of “the wacky foreign center,” Kosta might actually turn into more than a bench-novelty. At 7-2, he has height the Warriors lack elsewhere. During his late season performances, he seemed willing to throw his size around down low and take up space. Kosta’s minutes against Shaq went from being a classic “isn’t Nellie crazy” story to a viable strategy in a few quick minutes. With a little lower-body strength work, Kosta could be a nice change of pace from the light, quick-flight Warriors we know and love. The book on Kosta has always been that he’s offensively gifted, so the reports from the D-League about his rebounding and shot-blocking are particularly encouraging.
The question surrounding Kosta is simple: will Nellie find time for him to develop? We spent an entire season watching Andris yanked only to be replaced at center by Al Harrington or Mickael Pietrus. Kosta would allow the team to go bigger or slide Andris to power forward (as the team did successfully during the Phoenix game). Still, given Nellie’s big man track record and the limited minutes Andris saw this season, I’m not sure how a slower big man like Kosta fits into the Warriors’ game plan. Of course, some great rebounding and shot-blocking during the summer league would go a long way towards forcing Nellie’s (or any other coach’s) hand.
Stephen Jackson - One of these names is not like the others, at least in terms of age. But despite Jackson’s years in the league, I actually think he might be getting better. Before he hit the wall this year, Jackson was shooting a higher percentage, rebounding more, and getting to the line with regularity. Everything fell apart in the final third of the season, but I’m optimistic that with fewer minutes, Jackson could sustain his well-rounded, disciplined efforts from earlier in the year. Also, compared to Baron’s contract and Monta’s soon-to-be contract, Jackson is a downright deal for a 20 point a night scorer.
Jackson’s decision-making is often called into question, and I’m certainly not one to defend it in all cases. Still, I will say that when a game really does depend on scoring points asap, Jackson tends to be good about taking the ball to the hole and looking to get fouled rather than pulling up for a quick three. Jackson made huge strides this year in controlling his temper and playing under control. Now, imagine if he made a similar leap next year in terms of his shot selection and offensive discipline. Jackson is crafty and his game has almost no reliance on athleticism. It’s a combination that should allow him to continue to improve long after most NBA players have peaked.
There are notable absences from this list. They’ll be covered in the next post on the players likely to be left out of the game plan or off the roster entirely next year. The tough question becomes whether we think internal improvement from the players listed above, along with the addition of a mid first round pick, will be enough for the Warriors to keep pace in the West. There certainly are intriguing possibilities in the futures of the above players, but intrigue alone doesn’t win end-of-season games against Western playoff teams. Even with all of the above talent panning out, the Warriors most likely will need to find another contributing piece to hang with the pack.
Hold on, I can’t think about on court talent.
I have to sue Comcast and have another cat fight with Don Nelson first.
Please don’t try to distract me.
Great post and I agree with your assessment that these guys represent our “core” for next year (save, perhaps, for Kosta. What I saw in his limited action really didn’t encourage me. I hope I’m wrong). The largest notable exclusion from this list is, of course, Al Harrington. His inconsistency offensively and on the boards really hurt this team and because of that I see him as our most logical bargaining chip (coupled with the $10 mill exemption). I think other teams that, like us, want to run and spread the floor would be very interested in the potential he brings to the table. All that said, my sincere hope is that Mully can leverage Al to acquire Elton Brand. If that we’re to happen, game on. A starting five of Baron, Ellis, Jax, Andris and Brand would be…could be upper echelon, conference finals type good. Fingers crossed.
How sad to talk of the KEEPERS just as the excitement of the NBA has just begun. And so, my first natural reaction is ask, 1) What went wrong? 2) Who’s worthy among my W’s to be retained?
As we have discussed before, our main core got fatigued. No bench for help. And THAT’S the coach main responsibility.
So, who are worthy to stay?
I would forget BD, whether he is returning or not. My focus will be on the consistency of running team plays where everybody is ALLways involved. Baron is not that kind of PG. Better look for a replacement.
Monta isn’t the answer for that PG. Ellis can be good and effective at SG at a certain times. I would put his value in line with SJax.
Andris needs some development both physical and skillwise. The W’s needs somebody who can impose himself under the basket. Not the one we can build around but enough to compliment. Average market value for a center.
Keleena Azubuiki is good coming from the bench but not good enough as an average sixth man. Too small for a SF. Definitely deserves a better pay.
Marco is still a coaching project on his D. Together with BW and KA, we’re stucked by their rookie contract.
Capt. Jack will still be the captain. Al Harrington, making more than $9M this coming year is too much for the little contributions he did. BD and AH would be a nice trade package.
AS for Barnes and MP, let them find themselves where they would be happy to play. And I would not put too much expectation for Don Nelson to come back.
Keepers: Baron Davis, Stephen Silas, Stephen Jackson, Don Nelson, Marco Bellineli, Raymond Ritter, Bob Fitzgerald, Chris Mullin.
Expendable for Nellie’s championship: Monta Ellis, Andris Biedinrs, Brandan Wright.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=kreidler_mark&page=Kreidler-080417
Maybe I should stick to this post but I can’t wait to see what Adam has to say about Al Harrington in the next one. I think moving him, as CC suggested yesterday (what’s the world coming to when I quote CC!), would be a great move.
Of the players above, Kelenna is the real wild card. Considering his rebounding, timely 3s, timely tip-ins, and defending Kobe, I would hate to see him play for another team. But the differences that Adam mentioned, from November to April, leave doubts.
Everyone should read Bruce Jenkins’ column on the scandal in the desert. If Nelson doesn’t “believe,” why should we?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/19/SPNK10820U.DTL
Adam’s commnents on the individual players certainly make sense. There is one glaring omission. A team functions best when the individual players see the floor well, share the ball on offense, and share the responsibilities on defense. Starting with Baron, this “outside-outside” team does not see the floor. All the talk about good chemistry is really about who likes to hang out together.
Monta’s drives to the hoop usually come from his assessing the lanes and speeding forward when he sees his chance. Davis always looks for his shot first. His assists to minutes played ratio is horrible. Davis has tons of talent, but not the will to share the ball or the glory except to some degree with his “safe” compadres, Jackson and Harrington. Jax either knifes in like a junk yard dog or jacks (jax?) up a three, usually unwisely.
In his precious few minutes on the floor, what Bellinelli shows more than the explosive shooting potential is a distributed floor game. He’s a kind of Pete Maravich out there, churning, passing, shooting, constantly moving, integrating himself into a flow he is helping create. That’s not just HIS potential we see, but the team’s. He’s got to play significant minutes.
Much the same can be said about Brandan Wright, though it doesn’t take the same form, of course, because of the difference in their bodies and roles. Put Brandan and Belli out there together and we’ll see a kind of excitement we will NEVER get with the current cast of characters.
Monta developed his floor and passing skills incredibly this year. He will fit in beautifully with the new-look Warriors if they ever get the chance to play.
Biedrins, of course, is key to all of it. He makes few assists but his whole mentality is to board and clear the ball. He has great court sense too and is developing interior skills that will demand the ball much more than we’ve seen to date.
Bring in a bruiser power forward with at least moderate scoring ability, and strong defensive and rebounding skills, to go with the offense. We need another anchor inside. This team is not tough enough and will never be able to compete with the squads we see in the playoffs until they are.
I don’t know how it would work financially, but if Baron bails (and I hope he does), Jose Calderon of Toronto (who appears to have lost the starting job to TJ Ford after an All-Star level performance in the first half of the season)would be perfect for the Warriors if they change direction away from a one-on-one matchup and volume three offense.
What a joy it is to watch San Antonio, Utah, Phoenix, New Orleans, and (ouch!) the Lakers in the playoffs.
It’s great to be in the Western conference, even if we’re on the outside looking in. Hopefully that will change in a substantial way for the years to come.
Oh, and wouldn’t it be great if everyone agreed to make a maximum of five posts per thread on this blog? That would clean out the annoying mental viruses that run through the system. I’ll take the lead: four more posts from me max this thread.
Kelenna was not part of the problem as his role was jerked around and his health had its own ups-and-downs.
If he gets paid to play well elsewhere, just add him to the list the Warriors continue to add to.
“Both are young, so I’m hoping it’s not too late for someone to instill some defensive fundamentals.”
Adam - I’m fairly sure that your usage of “someone” was intended to mean someone other than Nellie, who brought us very little in terms of defensive focus this year. Good breakdown on the players.
BD seems to be one of those players that needs a change of scenery every so often in order to recharge his batteries. I think the time is now, despite what everyone else is saying. Given that the Warriors will not offer him an extension if he exercises his option, he will be around 30 years old after next season, the Ws are unlikely to be better next year, he showed he could get through a whole year unscathed physically and this season is probably as good as it’s going to get for him production-wise (despite the end of the year meltdown), I see him gambling now on a longer term deal. Something like 4 years at close to $50 million. Some team out there likely would pony up this type of money for him, and I think he’d be smart to get it now rather than wait another year to see if he can survive Nellie-ball. The guy looked old, tired and heavy-legged for the last third of the season. Even had we gotten into the top 8, there would not have been any Kirilenko-posterizing plays in the playoffs.
My top priority for the next draft would be a smart, efficient point guard, if one exists. Only after that would I focus on some more size, either through the draft or free agency.
A 48-win lottery team. Makes you think…
Adam, I’d just die to hear your analysis on the ‘08-’09 Western Conference (not literally but I enjoy reading your thoughts). Here are my thougts to kick-start the collective brain.
Wolves & Grizzlies (and likely Sonics due to the move-angst) are full-rebuilders. Not to say some draft-pick or f/a couldn’t pick the whole team up and move them into the po’s, but chances are really, really minor. Same % as 50+ wins required…
Sac-town, Clips, and Blazers are on the cusp. Theus has done a job, and the C’s & B’s are gonna have the staff unless they blow apart. Are the W’s part of this group? Certainly, this year it seems their only edge was no serious injury player loss (a la Brand, Oden). If BD goes down for 20 games, what is our record? When the door opens and lets 1-2 teams in, which are they going to be?
Now this year’s PO teams:
Denver: I think they’re just good enough and that’s where they’ll stay. Seems they are a “fifteen-taxi” kind of team; still there is always somebody who can get up enough talent to win the important ones. The guys listen to Karl just enough to learn which games those important ones are. #7 or #8.
Dallas: Don’t see ‘em getting better. Kidd won’t deteriorate too much (his mind is still sharp), but I think Dirk & Josh have too much chicken in their make-up. Benjamin issues looming. Also there are doubts about coaching stability. They could be #9 or #10 next year.
Spurs: Here is where the age starts to show. The downhill slope is perhaps 5% a year, but they are ultimately a physical team. I’d guess they have 2-3 years before they fall out of the po’s (time to do something about it) but could finish #6 or even #8 next year if they don’t shake something up.
Houston: Imponderable. Could win it all. Could finish up in the lottery. Battier, Landry, Alston, and maybe Brooks are going to be the players who make it happen or not. I’ll go out on a limb and say they end up in the #3 to #6 slot.
PHX: Gonna miss Marion; Grant & Shaq’ll be 104, and Nash may be down to 30 minutes a game. Maybe the Suns pick up Pietrus to go with Diaw and Barbosa for an all-inconsistent team. I predict the drop-off here will be greater than any other team - 2007 will be an all- or-nothing gamble. Still, d’Antoni and Nash likely get them into whichever of the last two slots the Nuggets don’t select (unless SA crashes & buns). But ‘08-’09 is the final run with this team.
Jazz: There is something fuzzy about the edges of this team, something a bit off. AK47, Okur, Boozer… Hard to say. Maybe Jerry Sloan. Do the Jazz have looming cap concerns? I feel the window will open and close for Utah just like for Phoenix. That said, they’ll thrive on their young talent for a few years yet. One of my top-five picks in ‘09.
NO: Solid talent supporting a burgeoning super-star. BD just needs to look at Paul to see what he could have been. This team is the Cleveland of the West; maybe not good enough yet, but with the future stretching out before it. And, like Cleveland, a small-market team without the bucks (pun intended) to play big in the free-agent game. In the hunt in ‘09.
Lakers: I’m a hater from waaaaay back. Grittin’ my teeth here. These guys will be HUGELY better next year, and won’t need to rely on Walton and Turiaf not to f**k up in order to win games. Only God or Kobe can stop them. I’m picking them for ‘08 AND for ‘09.
So, doctor, who do our Warriors beat? How? Love to hear some answers.
first things first…
i posted the entire game 6 of last years first round and only Tired commented on it.
this is the FULL broadcast from TNT with the commercials edited out.
i am not sure if the hosting website will end up removing it, so ya’ll should check it out before it too, fades into our memories.
here is the link:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/2007-west-first-round-game-6-warriors-vs-mavericks/3584445731
i absolutely believe that Monta can become a legit superstar in the league. He has tremendous instincts on defense and throws his body around with reckless abandon. The criticism of him leaving his man open for uncontested jump shots stems from the fact that he is trying to “help out” and cheat off for rebounds. The law of averages would say that this is a good scheme because I haven’t seen many players shoot career greater than 50% anyway. He made some of the SICKEST passes to cutters at the basket I have seen this year, so for those that think he has tunnel vision going to the hole, i would disagree.
I have a different opinion of Biedrins than most so i will respectfully not comment. Time will tell who is more right…
which leads to Wright.
While I agree with Adams assessment, I posted earlier this year that wanting him to bulk up significantly will alter the core of who he is and the strengths of his game would disappear. We need to work with the gifts he has and find ways to enhance/improve them.
I love Azuibuke and hope CC ponies up the $ to keep him. I understand that there is an investment/return threshold but I would hate to see him leave over $1 mill and blow up somewhere else after we discovered and groomed him.
I am completely lost on Bellinelli but if his true strength lies in a 6th or 7th man role, then he will be a tremendous disappointment to me. I was hoping for a Ginobli type player who could be deadly from outside and then as soon as the defender starts honoring the shot he would fearlessly drive the lane like our boy Sarunas back in the day.
I have to take exception with Adam on SJax. From Adam “I will say that when a game really does depend on scoring points asap, Jackson tends to be good about taking the ball to the hole and looking to get fouled rather than pulling up for a quick three”.
Seriously???
He ended up turning the ball over so frequently on his “drives” that i actually preferred him staying at the 3 point line by the end of the year. He is a good value under his current contract but if a trade scenario came up that was too good to pass on PLEASE don’t.
enjoy the video, all. who knows how long it will be there.
imo, bellinelli would be a fantastic 6th man, sort of like mike miller back in the days (not sure if hes still the 6th man) who would come in for offensive spurts and sit back down when the team is comfortably ahead.
i like stephen jackson except on the days when hes not consistent for like 3-4 days. he starts jacking (hehe pun) up 3s which clank the rim and it takes him days to readjust his shot. i figure its probably from fatigue or something though however
Az for @$2m with a 55+m salary cap? You don’t jump all over that? I’d take 6 Kelenna’s at that rate if they were available which would allow you fill the rest of the roster with a few $20m superstars.
I know KA was hurt, but at times he was our BEST all around player on the court, when you consider making good decisions and taking good shots, playing defense, and rebounding. I could definitely seem him developing into a starter and doing well. Kellena can play in any style, up tempo, 1/2 court, no matter the coach or system. He’s rock solid and imo underappreciated. I think considering his skills he’s a very good value.
Regarding AH and MP, you have to consider how much coach Nelson plays them out of their best/natural positions. AH is NOT a center, but was asked to play their often. He’s not a PF either imo, he’s best as a SF where rebounding is not an emphasis. Imagine AH for an entire season playing nothing but SF. I think he’s a 20 ppg player given starter minutes at SF and it would be a huge mistake to let him go.
Similar things can be said for MP, who was asked to play a lot at PF. He is better suited to SG and SF, and playing out of position didn’t help his performance. Used correctly he can be a force.
Everything comes back to coach not having or maybe even wanting a traditional PF and Center. If we resign AB as Center, and we can finally get that missing PF we need, then AH can rotate to SF and MP fills in at SF and SG. Everything becomes better. The team becomes better not just because of the addition of the PF (which for me is still the #1 need) but also because AH and MP and even KA can now play positions where they are more suited and can dominate.
No more AH at center. No more MP at PF. No more KA at SF. Play these guys where they belong and I think W fans would be suprised at how good they can be.
If AH is paying SF for the Ws, what happens to having the 3 best scorers, Monta, BD, and Jax, on the court at the same time?
Agree about Kelenna. I was only doubting his health, not his game. Love his game.
Oracle,
you make a valid point about AH playing out of position on defense which means that he “could” be more of a lockdown defender at his natural position.
however, that does not address his limitations on offense. he poses after each shot more than a supermodel. if he put half as much energy into rebounding, setting picks, and getting post position as he does posing, he would actually be an nba player. and someone needs to revoke his license to drive. his “crossover” is more like a u turn.
he has a great personality and I want him to fill a role for the team but my patience is starting to wear thin. as with jax, if he was part of a bundled trade i would not be opposed.
If you want to play our guys in their natural position, you have to convince the coach about that.
Ohh, I’ve heard all about that from MP. Excuse me. We’re supposed to have an all knowing basketball genius in Don Nelson….that brought us all this…
Here is my lineup:
PG BD
SG Monta
SF AH
PF to be named or BW if stronger
C AB
6th man Jacks
Get a strong PF and give AB more chances to score in the low post, and you have 6 players that can score 20 ppg. AH will be MUCH better at SF than PF or C.
Each of the 6 plays about 30-36 minutes per night.
Rest of bench:
MP but only at SG and SF.
BW exclusively at PF if not starter. He must get minutes if not the starter. No one else plays there.
Bell at SG.
AZ at SG and/or SF.
CJ at PG (rest BD and Monta at same time and play CJ/Jacks or CJ/MP or CJ/AZ so we have one bigger G to guard the other teams SG - can’t play CJ and Monta together).
Barnes, SF. Croshere. Players to be named,
With the addition of a PF, or if BW is ready, we have a strong 6 man rotation and more than enough bench — if Nelson will use them, in case of injuries or to give extra rest.
Funny, if we just add that strong PF, or if BW can do the job, it looks like it’s hard to find enough minutes for all the quality players on the team.
Of course, we all thought that over last summer too until Nelson did his disappearing bench trick and decided to overplay his starters.
Brian. Thanks for the TNT post on the full 6th game between Warriors and Dallas. It was a great game and it showed the following:
1) There were no difference between that team and our team now. Back then there were bad 3 points from Davis and Jack and the same lapses on defense that we have seen this year.
2) Back then we knew that we need a power forward like Carlos Boozer. We accepted it because Nelson could not build the roster at that time.
3) Nelson did not change nothing between the previous year and this year and I do not expect that he will change in the future.
4) It is true that if we did not trade JR we will have reached the playoff but we will not have go very far because all players will have been tired because the short roster rotation that Nelson like to play and the fact that we do not play conventional defense nor we do not have players to defend Boozer, O’Neal, Gasol. Duncan, and so on.
Nelson only plays with the strengths of his best players. Bench for Nelson is to used only for practice against the starters; otherwise, he will not used it at all.
I really hope people see game 6 again and see that there were not improvement as a team. Obviously that ME , AB, BW, MB, and KA have improved as players as it was expected. I also like Kosta because he has pretty good hands and he could be a pretty good student on playing defense and blocking.
With respect to Jackson, I would agree with Adam comment “Jackson made huge strides this year in controlling his temper and playing under control. Now, imagine if he made a similar leap next year in terms of his shot selection and offensive discipline. Jackson is crafty and his game has almost no reliance on athleticism. It’s a combination that should allow him to continue to improve long after most NBA players have peaked.”
Jax, by far the best defender on the team (when healthy-not like the last month), as a 6th man? I don’t like it. He’s also very skilled at getting guys like AB and BW the ball when they’re open.
For some reason, I remember this clearly on the day the Indiana trade happened: Donnie Walsh said in his press conference that Al isn’t a 3 or a 4, and that’s part of the reason they were willing to let him go, even though it was a hard decision.
Starters:
AB
BW
Jax
Monta
BD
Kelenna, Marco, and a high energy player who can rebound (acquired through the draft or preferably a Harrington trade) off the bench. Maybe Kosta and CJ, or others acquired would allow us to go 10 deep. I think that starting lineup-if they play the 30-36 minutes mentioned above-could play good defense.
Jackson has not been a consistent or motivated defender at all and that track record precedes his Warrior tenure.
He has been very good in important stretches but he does not deserve an injury pass for his lazy play over far more than the final month of the season.
alberto,
there is one big difference…
JRich.
you could see his imprint all over the game.
from the opening 3 to the hustle plays, he really brought it.
another poster recently talked about his “motor” and made a great comparison to KG. props for that.
however, the past is in the past. we now need to round out the team that we do have.
Baron should have gotten injured; if you remember last season he came back fresh from his vacation(injury)and lead the dubs offensive attack to the conference semis. If Baron and Jack can be energized and clutch like they were last year and Chris Cohan can get someone like Brand without demolishing his bench we might be looking at a deep run next year.
Jamesonline,
Good points. I see the same potential in Belinelli. Absolutely love your “mental viruses” comment. Instant classic.
Brian,
Thanks for the game link.
LOL at AL “poses after each shot more than a supermodel”.
——————————————-
Baron being in a contract year works against our desire for him to share the ball more. His instinct is telling him to keep padding his own stats. Unless Mullin/Nelson specifies that assists is the primary consideration they’ll look at for an extension offer, I don’t see him changing his ways much. Only other way to “control” him is to sit him down, limiting his minutes which would actually keep him fresh. That means having a backup point that DN can trust.
Trade exception squandered/Elusive power forward.
Clock is ticking, t.e. money in Cohan’s pocket unless Mullin/Nelson get a cut of undercap performance. Two months to go—missed it all season and at trade deadline. Most of you seem to not think dubs can get a franchise player in the off-season.
Please see http://sports.espn.go/nba/news/story?page=2008freeagents and tell me if you want ANY of those guys, not counting the early termination option guys like Brand, O’Neal, etc.
This money now seems gone into AB and ME—bad news. The draft is loaded with cheap Power Forwards—good news, dubs will have pick of one of the top 3 likely. Nelson won’t play him—more bad news.
Here is the total today with an assumption or two:
AH 9.2 mill
SJ 7.1 mill
AB 8.0 mill(guess)
BW 2.5 mill
MBell 1.5 mill
ME 8.0 mill(guess)
CJW 0.7 mill
KP 2.0 mill
Adonal Foyle 6.4 mill
KA—opts out
BD 17.2 mill(returns)
That’s 62.6 mill, likely cap 59 mill, likely tax 70 mill. Eight players. No obligation nor control of KA, MB, AC, POB, MP.
Add: #14 draft pick @ approx. 1.7 mill= 64.3 mill, nine players.
After Mullin fires all of the defensive assistant coaches and pays their severance packages I will begin to believe that Cohan is going to reward the dubs fans who have been solid for many years.
Lots of scenarios, the clock is ticking toward the draft because cohantightwallettradeexception**itgoing to hit the fan.
Big changes….costly.
No changes…cheap.
Caught in the middle…more of the same.
Guts…priceless.
Defense:
Does not start with acquisition of a power forward, ends there. Starts with coach who can put our smalls on theirs, stop high pick and roll and first move, and not have to cowtow to Nellie for teaching it.
Then the PF. There is a Paul Milsap in this draft, by the way…
When I see all this emphasis on the future, I wonder if the Warriors truly have the potential to be great. On the West coast alone, I think there are two teams with much, much brighter futures ahead of them than the Warriors. Who would everyone rather have: 1) Roy, Aldridge, and Oden 2) Ellis, Wright, and Biedrins, or 3) Durant, (probably) Rose/Beasley, Green and the rest of the Sonics’ picks? For me, options 1 and 3 are far superior to option 2. More thought should be given to trading away the future and trying to win now with Baron, Jax, and a legit big man IMO.
Bucky,
These guys just maxed out and still didn’t make the playoffs. Move on.
I agree fully with post #24. Defense will not arrive with a power forward. Indeed start with the coach. I really believe that Nelson will continue; however, I hope that all new players coming to the Warriors team plays defense first, passing second, and scoring third.
We need another general manager to change the roster and coach to see our youngsters play in the same way that Philadelphia is doing.
How about giving this some thought. Of course anything we throw out here will be dependent on whether Nelson comes back. There is good reason to believe, as has been stated, that things won’t be a lot different if he does. Still, I think this could work WITH Nelson if he would stick to it and use his strategic mind in this framework rather than the small ball thing.
That being said, to continue the thread about the lineup, I would like to throw the thing open to some different ideas to see where it might take us.
Utilizing the players we have now and are likely to have, and maybe one more dependable PF type, this might work even with Nellie’s indifference to defense:
PG: BD with CJ to back up. Give BD a chance to prove he can move the ball around. If he doesn’t come back, get a PG in draft or free agent. CJ is craftier than many of you think.
SG: KA. Given the chance at the position he should be playing, I think KA could do the things he started to do at the start of the season and his DEFENSE would be a big plus as a starter. His biggest downside is his knee. If it is tendonitis, this is a bad thing because it is the kind of thing that can flare up at any time. I hope the Ws get a good evaluation on that before they sign him. I like him very much, otherwise.
SF: Jax with AH to back up and share time according to match-ups. This would be a strong combo at the 2 and give us some different match-up possibilities. AH will shoot better if not played at other positions and he will have a more logical defensive match-up as well. AH could also be 6 at times.
PF: BW and new PF play according to circumstances. Gives more options and possibilities for different tempos of game and match-ups.
C: AB with KP as backup. Why not? AB can play a lot more minutes than he has at times, especially if he doesn’t come into the season tired. His recognition of this in the press shows that he may rethink how much he plays in the off season. But heck, he is young and strong, and getting stronger. KP has the body and height to keep things honest when AB is out. He can score too. Let him play.
6th man ME. This is my favorite idea. Ellis off the bench would be instant offense and energy to keep the pace up or take it up a notch. No one else on the team can bring that consistently. The 6th man position is an important one and is not utilized that effectively by many teams. This, again, offers match-up possibilities during the game and gives options in subbing in.
AH is the only other option we have for this with the possible exception of Marco. The 6 has to add something to the energy and change things up a bit. Using KA for this, for example, doesn’t really change anything much. ME could also play at point with KA without losing the defense at at least one of the guard positions when BD goes out. They are both good ball handlers.
Designated scorer/shooter/zone buster: Marco. Who else! Use as needed, but use him!
Rest of bench: TBA. If Barnes is still around, use him as a utility SF type but NOT at PF or C. I think his time is up with the Ws though, and we need his roster spot. Otherwise, additional veteran defensive specialist and draft choices. A couple of big guys (4s or 5s) would be the logical thing here.
Lots of ways to keep the players fresh with this setup without giving up on defense. Players are utilized for their strengths and not put in bad match-ups because of small ball. No need to put all the subs in at once will keep the flow going. Everyone (the first 10 or 11) plays every night and the team comes together because everyone is involved.
This is more like Celtic ball (old or new) or the type of team the Ws used to win their championship before. I hope the Ws will use something like this, even if they can’t find another PF that is exceptional. They only need one that can be effective for so many minutes per game. A good vet who could enforce a bit would be nice.
5 players at the guard spots, two at each other position sharing the minutes, with wild card possibilities for different types of lineups without playing people out of position much at all.
Draft for best player available. Enjoy the ride- this would be a VERY high energy team.
Chris Cohan: “Baron, Jax, and a legit big man” maxed out and still didn’t make the playoffs? Say Brand is verified as healthy–he could probably be had for Monta + Biedrins (or less), and then the starting lineup could be Baron, Buike, Jackson, Brand, and Harrington. Wright, Belinelli, and Barnes come off the bench. That team wins 10 more games than this year’s W’s roster IMO, and is therefore a legit title contender.
Bucky’s on the list.
Welcome to the NBA, Bucky.
What list?
Bucky, have you seen again the game 6 from last year? can you tell if there a difference between what the previous team did versus the team that just failed to make the playoff? do you believe that BD, AH, MP, Matt, and perhaps Jackson max out their potential?
Alberto: Of course I saw last year’s playoffs! I think that BD, AH, MP, Matt, and Jax have not yet maxed out their potential, because they have never played with a dominant big man. I don’t believe the aforementioned players are “small-ball-only” players; I think they could succeed in other systems, too. It takes giving up talent to get talent (except for the Lakers), and Monta and Biedrins may be at all-time highs in terms of their trade value. I believe that combined, they could fetch the type of franchise big man the Warriors seek.
Bucky, what can I say? I truly believe that Warriors failed because of Nelson, Mullin, BD, AH, MB, and Jackson in a less degree. However, there is no point in trying to see your point or you seeing my point.
I agree to disagree with your point of view.
Re-iteration(sorry):
At this point the dubs “control” AH, SJ, AB, BW, MBell, ME, CJW, KP for next year—eight players. Also “control” draft picks, if not traded.
Do not “control” BD, KA, MB, AC, POB, MP. BD controls next year’s contract, as does Nelson, now.
So above scenarios counting on MP or KA are probably not to the point right now(unless you have Mullin’s ear).
Aside— Nelson says (3/17) he does not “want” to pass Lenny. He needs 53 wins to do so. Any believers?
Sorry dubs fans, wildly unknown what will happen. Grab your rosary beads for daily mass.
Dear God, is it all or nothing at all?
Jackson is worth what we’re paying him. In spite of his image refurbishing, he’s probably not going to attract anything in a trade that would improve us.
It’s funny how everyone thinks Al’s not worth his salary, and yet think we should be able to trade him for someone playing essentially the same position. I’m not saying he’s not tradeable, but we’d probably need to give up something else to get a better player. The TE cannot be combined with a player, so it can’t be combined with AH unless more teams are involved.
We are now a competitive team, and that’s enough to fill the seats. Mullin has shown a willingness to gamble on personnel so far, but I expect him to be a lot more conservative now that we have a reasonably talented core. The luxury tax threshold will also play a major factor in this year’s moves if Baron does not opt out.
35—Dear Bucky:
What franchise big man are you referring to? I am just sure we must already be aware of his name…please, who is it?
Roy Hibbert?
38—Petaluman—
A conservative Mullin will (1)be forced by BD not opting out to (2) sign AB and ME thus (3)draft a PF and (4) contemplate another safe small piece or two.
If AH has significant fair-trade value that may occur due to Nelson but it is 9.2 mill and won’t be easy. Non-fitting, underacheiving players with significant contracts are now up for the cakewalk—see any you like?
I would split the 9.2 mill for a defensive coach and a strength and conditioning coach. Can we trade a player for a coach or two?
I’d keep AH unless real fair trade.
Dr. John: I was thinking of trading Monta and Biedrins for Brand, assuming Brand reaches full health. Another crazy option, even though the Rockets would probably never do it, would be to dangle Ellis, Biedrins (and it would probably take Wright or a first-rounder, too) for Yao. The fast-break style would be curtailed, but I believe that Baron and Jax can still succeed in a half-court system.
And Alberto: I certainly can agree to disagree. What’s bothered me of late around the board is the almost-universal dismissal of the values of Baron, Jax, and a “win now” strategy, and the almost-universal support to throw the sun, moon, and stars at Ellis and Biedrins. I just think the Warriors have legitimate decisions to make, and that the “win later” strategy shouldn’t be forwarded as the only viable one.
Mike66,
The reason I had Jacks instead of AH as the 6th man:
1> Jacks is a captain and leader and I think of all the 6 can deal with being a 6th man the best
2> Jacks as 6th gives coach many more options. He can sub at 2 or 3. If BD needs a rest and we need to score more, ME can play PG and Jacks move to SG. So basically, Jacks can sub for any of PG, SG, SF. And the way Nelson plays, even PF but I don’t want to see it. AH on the other hand is strictly a SF to me. I guess he could be 6th and sub at PF too but I am hoping that we get someone and use BW so I don’t really want to see AH playing PF or C anymore.
Tired,
Good ideas.
Personally think ME is critical to our break and breaking down 1/2 court defenses with his penetration. I don’t see him sitting behind KA, as much as I like KA. I see him playing 40 mpg and probably becoming our leading scorer next season. Also, ME isn’t an ideal 6th man because he can really only play one position. A good 6th man gives the coach options to take out 2 or 3 players at different positions, whoever is having an off night or needs a rest. Jacks flexibility to play 2 and 3 gives coach more options.
It does again seem like we have some overlap with players, more good ones that can fit, which makes this years short bench even more puzzling. If we have at least 6 good players that could start, maybe 7, and a few more we all recognize as good subs that we don’t think should start, how do we end up with a short rotation.
Potential Starters:
BD, AZ, ME, Jax, AH, BW, AB
Decent backups: CJ, Bell, MP, Barnes, Croshere, Kosta
That’s 7 that some of us think could start, and 6 that most of us think could fill in as subs, and we had no bench????
Oracle, I kind of see where you’re going with your proposed rotations, but AZ, BW, CJ, Beli, Pietrus, Barnes, Croshere, and Kosta were all very bogus at various points throughout the year. They all may do better next year, but I still remember numerous occasions (for each) when they were injured or underperformed terribly, and were unable to fill the role of serviceable NBA bench players.
Philadelphia youngster with a new identity beat Detroit Piston. The Warriors needs an equivalent roster to make noise in the playoff.
Lakers have done so much better than us in acquiring players and using their draft.
They have a deep, quality team, with 2 or 3 big players better than anyone we have on our squad and a coach who can build a team around whatever players he has and win championships.
Plus they have Kobe.
Plus their rookies and young players are developed on the court during the regular season and even make ontributions come the playoffs.
What a novel concept.
Showtime is back. I hate it. Why can’t we do that?
Marco, we hardly know you. That’s the thing that stands out for me as we look back on this season, and look ahead to how the team should take shape for next year. I still can’t understand what would have been so bad, or so risky about giving Marco some minutes when we needed somebody to heat it up from the perimeter. There were a number of games where none of our starters were shooting well, and yet Nellie let this potential weapon sit idle. A player who Nellie praised highly before the season started. A player with some experience, and not a true rookie type. More than BW (who was at a physical disadvantage) and CJW (who got significant minutes for awhile there), Marco was the one player on the bench that I thought we’d see given a real chance to help us. Oh well, maybe next year. (?)
Dr_john,
I believe Nelson’s admiration and respect for Lenny Wilkens is genuine. Lenny’s fame is well deserved. 53 wins will be hard to reach anyway if we are correctly projecting tougher competition next year. Unless we get another major contributor, I see us struggling to qualify again next year.
43—Big O…
We all have our wish lists—
Of your first 7, BD and KA can opt out. Will the dubs extend Baron for 45 mill guarantee over say 4 years? Would any other team? Will the dubs go 30 mill 5 years for KA? Would any other team? Maybe we’re down to 5.
Of the remaining 5, will the dubs go for what ME and AB’s agents(!) want? Are we entering some sort of sign and trade scenarios? For whom? If we cannot satisfy these two players, are we down to 3?
We control SJ, AH, BW. If the dubs go into a big trade, no telling what gm would want whom here.
Of your second 6, MP MB and AC are free to fly. So with all due respect to your list of starters and subs, next year will not be the same team. The dubs no longer “have” these 13.
41—Bucky
I like Brand a lot, but not that much. Been here since the 70’s, prefer to look to the future.
48—Vair,
I can accept your assessment that Nellie’s comments were genuine. He is multi-faceted, I am drawn to him but I think the dubs have unrealized potential this year, and the next. We should not struggle next year, we should be stronger. SHOULD.
Let’s take a stroll down memory lane, one year:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/08/AR2007050802130_pf.html
Just to be fair—you know my position is/has been that a better complementary coaching staff(given his return)is a necessary requisite for the SHOULD.
Hi Oracle: in reference to my #30 and your #42 & 43
ME wouldn’t be sitting behind KA. Minutes are minutes. By overlapping the minutes of the best players, we allow mixing of veterans and younger players and we keep some of our best on the court at all times. I know you know that. This is for everybody. Havlichek got his minutes and became a super star at 6.
I don’t see SJ at 6 because his contribution is more of a workhorse, subtler thing that really is the backbone of the team. The same goes for KA. AH or ME would be more in the “light it up a bit” mode. They would force the other team to be able to stop them somehow rather than just playing their subs.
I put this out because I wanted people to think out of the box a bit. Everyone seems to be putting all their eggs in the starting five. Given this year, that is pretty obvious. Lets look a little deeper. I think that if you have the luxury of some interchangeable parts, you should overlap their minutes for maximum effect. This is the one way you can really play up tempo and possibly run another team into the ground.
I don’t get your comment about a 6th man creating other rotations and subs with multiple players. I would like to hear more about that. Actually, bringing in Monta would not stop the Ws from doing something else at the same time. They could sub another at the same time, go with three guards, whatever. If BD went out, that would put KA and ME together. If KA went out then BD and ME would be together. At the same time they could bring in AH for SJ and/or BW for PF for a fast break type team. All these combos have worked together already with success if AB or another 5 is in the game. The key is bringing in Ellis at the right time against the right match-up and getting BD out of the game without losing the energy.
Once this rotation starts you have overlaps that keep everyone fresh and then the coach can go with the hot hands down the stretch. Whatever happens, the 6 has to be more explosive than just a good sub.
Thanks for jumping in and keeping the discussion going. Is everyone else just going to suggest starting 5s and the usual suspects as subs? Personally, I don’t consider MB a viable or meaningful sub. Sorry, I used to like him too. MP is probably gone, and frankly, if the Ws were to go with this type of team, I really don’t see a spot for him except maybe as a defensive specialist. CJ, yes, partly because he can score and play some D, partly because he can play PG. Chroshere could fit in as backup 4 and/or 5 but his health is questionable at best. Only a true championship team can afford to keep someone like that on the end of their roster for a few minutes every now and then.
Our roster should only contain people who have a definite place and a definite role in the growth of the team and can play all the time if necessary. Maybe this is a lot to ask, but when you think about it, is it TOO Much to ask? I don’t think so.
Adam—
I eagerly wait your “omissions” from today’s list. You must have insider-trading info to leave AH off the list(is that legal?). And no love for CJW(Replacement(Dooling?) in mind?)? KA is coming back on the cheap? Nobody wants Barnes, Pietrus, Croshere, POB? Mully told you who the new coaches and players are going to be?
Man, I can’t wait.
Shout out, Fast Break on another toplist, Jones on the NBA.
Prevailing opinion, one or two games would’ve turned the W’s season around. But I don’t buy it.
The W’s were in great position for the end of the season, and they just choked.
Stop with the Lakers game. And looking at a couple of non-contender losses. Really, what you want is for the end of the season to come down to a bunch of games against contenders to decide the playoffs, and that’s what we got.
They failed. It’s disappointing. And they failed because they’re not yet good enough.
To me, that doesn’t take away from the heart and skill they showed all year to GET to that point. This team was incredible, every bit as exciting as last year.
Yeah, so the Dubs are the 12th best team in the NBA and 16 other teams including a few crappy teams are going to the playoffs and that sucks. But the truth is, the Warriors need more than what they have.
I don’t buy the dump-Nelson stuff either. This guy’s a hero for what he’s done. Baron’s not lazy and Jackson’s not a ball hog — these guys have their weaknesses, yes, but they also made do with what they had at hand. SJ was jacking up too many 3’s because that was one of the few choices the W’s had, given the talent they had and the pace they set.
I think this is an immensely talented team. Monta, Baron, Andris, these are really good players, and I am STUNNED by Jackson, I thought he was a throw-in in that trade — did anyone see what a talent this guy would be?
The plan, I think, was that POB would eventually take over center much of the time while AB played forward, and that BW is the perfect small forward. That way you have size and athleticism ALL over the court. But when POB crapped out, everybody had to take a step forward, AB to center all the time, Harrington to PF, Jackson to SF. It’s like that thing where you ask for volunteers and everyone takes one step backwards. And there’s poor Al Harrington playing over his head, banging bodies which he doesn’t really gravitate toward, there’s MP somehow filling in at power forward. Are you kidding me?
It’s a team crammed full of small forwards/big and small guards. With a few skinny tall guys.
Everyone knows they need a banger. They’re rare. Especially athletic ones. Not every team has Boozer or Amare to play with. POB should’ve been the guy to keep them from having to get the banger, but he may need to learn how to shave first.
Right idea, wrong guy. Try again. But let me just say one more thing, no team is giving up Brand or Marion for Pietrus and a bottle of Bud. If you want them, it’s going to cost, big-time. Not Baron or MP/Barnes/Harrington. Everyone knows their limitations, they were on full display this year. It’ll cost more.
Like Monta. Or Andris. That’s what the Warriors need to decide, if they want to part with their future for, well I guess for a different future.
NO Playoffs - this coming season for the Dubs,
simply because Nellie and BD will still be here.
Unless a MIRACLE could happen that would transform
Nellie into a flexible type of a coach that could effectively discipline BD’s selfish plays and could develope the young ones and could apply wise distribution of playing time on his talented bench.
But I doubt it very much!!
The thing I’m excited about though is for the next season after Nellie and BD are gone.
By then I will have envisioned the following:
PG - Monta
SG - JAX
SF - Brendan W
PF - (maybe Brand, Wilcox etc…)
C - AB
SIXTH Man - Marco B
PG Backup - CJ
SG ” - AZ
SF ” - MP
PF ” - ?
C ” - KP
-Al Harrington is like a lemon that looks cherry. For some reason, GMs and scouts always drool over the guy, but he’ll never reach the potential they see. If Mullin can somehow find another sucker for AH, then obviously jump on it.
-I know its more of a long shot seeing as Boston tanked last year to try and get Oden, but the Warriors are similar to last year’s Celtics– if we win the lottery, our whole world changes. Assuming Baron is still here then Beasley is the choice.
The playoffs prove that it’s all about superstars in the league. Supporting casts can be found. It is your top player or two that take you to the promise land. The Spurs are in great shape, because they have two super-duperstars in Manu and Dunc. Parker’s nice, but I’m talking top-of-the-world ballers. Lakers have Kobe and Gasol, with Bynum and Odom right behind. Celts have a top three. Beasley and Baron as our top two, with Monta and Jax as our second tier could take us there. Beasley isn’t quite as long, but I think he can be a Rasheed Wallace-type player.
It’s probably not worth even fanaticizing about.
The trouble with AB and ME is that neither is a complete player. In AB’s case, you have to compensate for his lack of low post offense; with Monta you need to compensate for his lack of defense, and as mentioned earlier his lack of distribution skills (although this weakness seems to be improving).
The franchise guys are usually the guys that can do it all at their position. The Kevin Garnett’s, Kobe’s, Duncans, Booser’s and yes the Barron Davis’s of this league.
With AB you need a strong low post presence to offset his lack of an offensive game. Monsta- real interesting point about playing POB or another big playing center with AB and BW at the 4 and 3. Trouble is neither can shoot a three. In fact I can’t imagine AB shooting even a mid range shot. I mean his free throws are ug-ly. BW might he a great 3, though if he develops an outside shot. But the real need remains for a strong all around 4. This should be our draft priority again this year, for as great a talent as BW will become, he won’t ever be a physical 4.
If Monta is playing at one guard position, you need KA or another tall physical guard to guard opposing teams most physical guard. In a Baronless world, either because he opts out next year, or is injured sometime in the future, KA fills that role. Assuming Baron stays with us, he also allows a smallish CJ to serve as Barron’s backup, as again he compensates for CJ’s lack of size and strength.
Both KA and CJ have proven to be at least capable backups. I wouldn’t look forward to the THUD tryouts revisited next year when those guys already solve some proven problems. Also we aren’t likely to draft a comparable big capable guard this year, as the the draft is heavy with PF’s and that is our biggest need.
Marco is with us for another year barring a trade. I am not as excited about him, because I can’t see his defense or point skills becoming even adequate. I think at best he is a 7th or 8th player serving as a 3 point/energy guy. I was disappointed that CJ came in and looked good filling some holes for the Dubs, while Belinelli looked like he was out of his league most times he got in. At this point I would have to say CJ is the better player. We do need a sharpshooter, though, and hopefully Belinelli can grow into that role.
All in all I think our current back court looks pretty good as currently constituted. All the current players, with the possible exception of Barron, should get better next year, and in the forseeable future. Particularly if we draft an eventual large PG in the 09 draft that will complement ME as the eventual replacement for Barron. (I doubt Monta will become the starting point guard, though he certainly will develop some PG skills as his carrear develop).
What concerns me is committing so much of our payroll to AB and ME when they are both inherently flawed.
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It struck me today as I watched the Piston’s game. BW is Tayshaun Prince and that’s not bad. Why try to make him a PF by adding 30lbs of muscle? Why do you want that to happen? One of the earlier posters made an excellent point that one of the dub’s flaws is that is that most of the starters are playing out of position.
Monsta #53, seriously, beautiful piece of writing, you totally nailed the close, there is no meaningful addition without meaningful subtraction. Do you risk standing still with maybe marginal improvement or you you take a chance to create a team that has the potential for greatness?
After 12 years in the desert and one year slightly over the border of the promised land does this team’s fans want to be entertained or do they want to go for the brass ring and take the chance of failing again?
we need more talent than we have now on the roster
As soon as Baron, Jax and Monta stopped having to earn their minutes from nelson, the laziness and lack of hustle kicked in and the team struggled. Whatever happened to Nelson’s famed meritocracy? I guess it only applies to rookies…
I think the biggest problem with this team is that it is filling up with too many above-average players and not enough great players. With the salary cap as it is, you can’t afford to pay 4-5 guys $10M a year nor can you pay every backup $6M a year. Mullin has the pieces to work with, he just has to be willing to part with ‘potential’.
Only one player on SA, outside of their big 3, earns more than $6M a year (Kurt Thomas) and no players on Boston outside of their big 3 earn more than $5M a year. THAT is how you build a team. Role-players come and go and are easy to acquire, but superstars are rare.
The question Mullin needs to ask himself about his players earning more than $8M a year is: will they help this team become elite?
Harrington - As previous posters have pointed out, he will never live up to his potential. At best, salary cap filler, otherwise another year like last year and then he will be gone.
Monta - Huge strengths, huge weaknesses. The only thing that is certain about him is that he will be paid like a franchise player. He would be worth more to a bad team where his strengths can be used to fill seats, rather than an elite team where his weaknesses will be exposed and contract will handcuff management.
Biedrins - With a bigger PF next to him, he could flourish. Plus he is tough, aggressive and hustles, which is rare for centers in the NBA. He is just the kind of player you want on your team. He will be slightly overpaid, but due to the rarity of talented big men, this is easy to forgive. By the way, all of the statistical metrics have him rated as a much better player than ME.
BWright - does it worry anyone else that he is a PF trapped in a SF’s body? I think he could excel in certain situations, but most tweeners fail in the NBA.
Azu - I would love to have him back, but won’t some other team throw their MLE at him for something like 6/$36M?
Pietrus - same as Azu.
SJax - Based on the fact that this team did NOTHING when he wasn’t on the floor (througout the season), I can’t see how anyone can justify trading him. Plus he is the NBA rare player who is actually underpaid. 82games.com has him rated as one the most clutch players in the NBA.
Baron - A true franchise player when he is healthy, motivated and not-fatigued. Maybe those aren’t traits you want in your franchise player, but then again, franchise players aren’t exactly falling off trees. Let him have his 20 games off next season and watch him lead us into the playoffs. Plus, what team is going to give anything good to get him? Remember what we paid for him? The value you get from trading a player is inversely related to his age.
GrapeGuy: “What concerns me is committing so much of our payroll to AB and ME when they are both inherently flawed.”
I feel the same way, except I still think their flaws might be fixable. Is it possible (or better, probable) for Biedrins to develop a 10-15 foot jumper and a post-up game? Is is probable for Monta to give up significantly fewer points than he scores? If so, then they’re worth every penny, if not, then they shouldn’t be given major contracts IMO.
Wright is a different case, because he still has multiple years on his rookie contract. He should either be traded for premium talent that can help the W’s win now, or kept and developed fully. I guess I can understand the Tayshaun Prince comparison in #57, but Prince has a pretty jump shot all the way out to 3-point range. Will Wright develop that?
I really like #60’s